Effects of Future Climate Changes on Yields, Land Use and Agricultural Incomes

Abstract

Dynamically coupled model runs of the DANUBIA components Biological, SNT, NaturalEnvironment and Farming were performed to estimate the effects of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use and income. Calculations are based on a GLOWA-Danube scenario including the climate trend REMO regional, the climate variant Baseline and the societal scenario Baseline. Results of the scenario calculation are compared with the reference period for four sample districts, which represent different site conditions within the drainage basin. In general, the scenario results show an increase in yields for the considered groups of crops. However, changes of individual crops within these groups differ between the districts. All districts have an increase in income that at the beginning of the scenario period is mainly caused by the increase in premium payments of the CAP compared to the reference period. The further income increase at the end of the scenario period, which is significantly higher in districts with a higher proportion of arable land, can be attributed to the increase in yields. With respect to land use, all districts show a decrease in forage crops and an increase in the cultivation of cereals. Overall, the results indicate that no negative impacts on the productivity of the agricultural land and the income situation of the farms are to be expected up to the middle of the century.