Keywords

FormalPara Interviewees

  • Fatoumata Ba

  • Diane Binder

  • Soulaima Gourani

  • Sabine Herlitschka

  • Olivier Oullier

  • Barbara Steiner

  • Lisa Witter

The consumption society has made us feel that happiness lies in having things, and has failed to teach us the happiness of not having things.—Elise M Boulding

A global consumer revolution is at hand, and an unprecedented rise in the global middle class will accompany it. Nearly 3 billion people—more than 40% of the world’s population today—will join the middle class by 2050, and virtually, all of these people are from developing countries (HSBC bank economic analysis). This group will consume up to two-thirds of all goods and services (now one-third). Experts note that developing countries are already actively adapting new technologies, equipment, and management skills. This leads to an increase in labor productivity and real incomes of the population, and the positive trend so far has no prerequisites for a change in vector. Spending on food and other essential products is becoming a smaller share of the consumer basket of people in developing countries who have more money left to improve their quality of life. Suppose developed countries provide less than 2% of the annual growth in the consumer market over the next four decades (Cingano, 2014). In that case, countries such as Russia, China, India, the Philippines, Peru, and Malaysia will be able to demonstrate an annual increase in the real incomes of the population. This will nevertheless also depend on the shops and their functionality. What will a retail space look like in the year 2050? Future shopping, a word combination that evokes excitement and fear, especially regarding the picture of the future of trading. Are there really no shops, shopping centers, and everything that businesses and buyers are so used to on the market map? And if they remain? In what form? And what scenarios of interaction with the buyer will be applied in them? Changes are happening so fast, and it becomes so difficult to comply with them that it makes sense for retailers to look closely, listen, and try on even the most fantastic forecasts. After all, when the author of utopian novels Edward Bellamy back in 1888 in the novel “Looking Back” first described plastic cards that can be used to pay in stores, his fantasy was hardly taken seriously (Bellamy, 1888). However, here they are—filling our wallets, significantly displacing cash. And even they are gradually leaving payment scenarios, giving way to AliPay, Apple Pay, SelfiePay, and other payment mechanics. Changing consumer values and needs has become a new factor that largely determined the development of retail, and technology has become one of the fundamental driving forces transforming the whole picture of the world (HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt 2012). They will remain the factor dictating significant shifts in trade structure in the near future.

In 30 years, everything will be different! But how exactly? Imagine the consumer of 2050 and their new lifestyle. By then, the traditional district, with its residential, transportation, commercial, entertainment, and retail elements, will be overflowing with technology. Most residents will need to forget the usual office locations and work at home or in coworking spaces. As a result, the number of citizens using transport and moving around the city on a daily basis will also decrease (Amador de San José, 2021) (see Chapter 8: Future of Transporation). Consumers can get what they want without leaving home or as close as possible to their habitat. Personalization will rule the show, which bots and numerous robotic assistants will provide. Retail outlets will become experiment centers where customers can test products only to have them delivered home. The margins of real life and virtual reality will blur as customers seek more entertainment and experiences. The research company Euromonitor International conducted a study that resulted in a vision of what retail stores will become in this distant and, in fact, the very near 2050 (Bogdanova, 2021). How will retail develop, and what new retail formats may appear in 30 years?

Changing the essence of the product—changing retail and changing end users’ expectations and novel comprehensive real world are affecting customers online behavior, where and exactly how they choose and buy, and the very concept of a product. For Karl Marx, everything was quite simple: “A commodity is a product of labor that can satisfy any need of the buyer and be exchanged through purchase and sale.” (Marx, 1867) At the same time, according to the economist, a commodity has only two properties: the first is the use value created by specific labor; the second is exchange value or the value created by abstract labor. In 2023, the “life” of a product has become much more enjoyable. It has become not only a subject for exchanging “goods - money” but also an occasion for dialogue between the producer and the consumer. And this trend will intensify, changing the entire structure of retail. Now shopping is a journey into the world of relationships, subject to more than one clear goal—buying. The perfect journey provides added value during the search, selection, and after the purchase, turning the transaction into a long-term “romance.” This scenario turns the classic game on its head, where the retailer offers and convinces and the consumer agrees. The customer demands, and the manufacturer and retailer try to meet these requirements. This way of relationships has largely corrected the basic concept of trade—the price, as long as the cost of the final product is in the basic range, is an essential factor influencing the purchase decision. However, for retailers who find it difficult to compete on price, the new paradigm of the customer journey, that very “relationship” with the customer, provides a wealth of opportunities to justify the value of their product. Physical points of sale will remain an essential part of the customer journey and will continue to play a role in 2050, although their functions will change. A total of 47% of consumers worldwide want to “see or try” a product before buying (Agbanrin, 2019). And the main destroyer of the traditional way of trading will remain the Internet—great and powerful. Modern consumers are no longer perceived in isolation from gadgets and the Internet. The total availability of the Internet and round-the-clock online mode provide a new level of convenience, simplicity, and awareness.

The total availability of the Internet and round-the-clock online mode provide a new level of comfort, easiness, and awareness. As a consequence, buyers are becoming more irritated, testy, and tough to satisfy. Their awareness is also becoming a new challenge for brands and manufacturers, which dictates new scenarios for communication with the audience (Decker, 2022). Brands and retailers have no choice but to follow the buyer along his path and catch the latter in all channels: in the online store, application, messenger, or social networks. According to Euromonitor analysts, physical stores will not disappear completely—they remain an experimental platform where you can see, touch, smell, or try on goods. Categories such as clothing, accessories, and cosmetics will also remain in demand in physical retail. Virtual reality and 3D images in 30 years will not replace the emotions caused by direct contact and “live” study of these product groups.

Along with the bigger share of digital technologies in trading, the impulse to be exposed to “more” generates a fundamental shift in customer needs and appraises. Consumers prioritize experience above purchasing more products. And it is precisely the provision of a unique experience to the audience that will continue to help brands justify a higher retail price than competitors. How the “face” of the retail store will change with each passing day, the separation of the purchase decision from the physical outlet is felt stronger. And retail will increasingly use technology and innovative solutions to remove barriers between the product offer and the buyer, whose needs for everyday purchases will not decrease. Technology will not only facilitate convenient and fast shopping but increasingly satisfy the customer’s curiosity inclined to experiment with new products. First, physical retailers will be responsible for making impulse purchases and purchasing consumer goods with limited regularity. Wearable technology and voice assistants will guide the shopper through the retail space; merchandise will be automatically inserted into a virtual order list; and humanoid robots will handle the sale service, inventory, and even the management. The emergence of a new format of experimental spaces on the territory of which will be tested products require more thorough study.

Retailers may charge a fee for entering such exclusive locations, offering customers a unique experience in return. It will be a hybrid format that combines the presentation of interesting products and unusual practical activities. Examples of such locations are already appearing in current Russian retail. Thus, the largest DIY retailer Leroy Merlin launched the Idea Factory. Master classes are held daily in the new space, where visitors to the hypermarket can create interior elements or lovely gifts with their own hands. Thus, creativity becomes the basis for testing an expensive tool and new, unusual materials, and it is possible that it is after such contact that the buyer decides to purchase a hitherto unfamiliar technique or interesting raw materials. Key features in the future retail store areas: The development of online commerce and the ubiquitous technologization of retail will inevitably lead to changes in a store windows’ design and delivery scenarios.

Grocery stores everywhere organize separate entrances for receiving and issuing online orders. Thanks to video monitoring systems, retailers will learn to identify visitors who already have access to the trading space to make them the most relevant offers. Shop windows will finally lose their decorative function and become a platform for informing the audience about prices, new offers, products, and activities. Entry and exit biometrics will identify visitors at the entrance of the store and, as a result, make personalized offers to customers. Cash desks will disappear at the exit—payment for purchases will be created automatically when leaving the outlet. As mentioned earlier, for the convenience of serving online customers who purchase using the click and collect model, there will be different entrances for those who pick up an order or are just planning to make it. An essential element of the future store will be the test zone, which will use the most advanced VR technologies (Mcdowell, 2020). A virtual fitting room, a virtual mirror, a virtual stylist, or even virtual reality will likely be situated in locations where this or that thing will be checked for fitting. Fitting rooms will be the very last and optional step for a purchase. Thanks to technology here in the fitting and testing area, the consumer will be offered hundreds of options for a complete look or makeup based on the individual data and preferences of the buyer.

Retail in 30 years will be a fantastic sight, and not even the buyer but his digital twin will be at the head of the trade pyramid. The first thing that would surprise today’s buyer is that information about the buyer is stored not from the cradle but considering previous generations. It will be possible to build a customer profile for several generations based on robust, intelligent quantum computing systems. But the buyer himself does not participate in this routine because all the “dirty” work on the choice of goods and involvement in marketing activities will be done by the digital twin. There will also be an exquisite evolution of the assortment, which will become not just huge but endless.

Moreover, its expansion will only occur through mass production in the context of releasing personalized goods. An avatar powered by powerful calculations can only choose such products, and our shopping will only consist in putting mental check marks and approving this or that purchase. Shopping will lose the function of choice but will acquire the function of supporting the choice made by our avatar. Based on Euromonitor analysts’ forecasts regarding the complete disappearance of cash registers in the form in which they operate now, the cashless service, which is now gaining momentum, will become a natural solution for stores of the future (Konish, 2022). For the buyer, all barriers will disappear, anything can be taken, and many digital surfaces will naturally immerse you in different contexts of using this thing. For a consumer who is hungry for impressions, more than one advertisement, review, or video is needed. And as a result, a new film genre will appear. There will be a “property” cinema: the promotion of goods with the help of highly artistic and emotional films created by artificial intelligence (Agatov, 2020). You will be in the lead role with the product you want to purchase. With new computing power, such films will be created on the fly in a split second. At the same time, the picture of the future retail presented by the author of the concept of “Store 4.0” will not have the usual segments. Shoe retail, clothing retail, mass market, and premium—everything will merge into a single ecosystem.

The task will be exclusively to satisfy human needs, doing this with the utmost barrier-free not only in the context of the purchase process but also in terms of the overall product offer. The source of these metamorphoses will be the solutions of the future: predictive analysis, processing, and collection of big data, virtual and augmented reality; machine vision; cashless experience; intelligent loyalty programs; a unified shopping experience in all channels; possible content distribution; built ecosystems; speech technologies; blockchain; and many other solutions that seem to us still a curiosity, but this is already a wonderful present, which is actively used by many.

1 Input from Interviewees

Fatoumata BA

Founder and executive chair, Janngo Capital

In 2050, the future of consumption will be… African! With a population of over 2.5 billion people, including 60% of the world population below 25 and 40% of the world population below 18, Africa is poised to become both the largest workforce and consumer market globally. By, 2100, nearly 1/3 of the world population will be African. What does it mean? Well, we need to find now massive ways to feed, educate, house, care for, and employ more than 1 billion people in less than 30 years. We believe traditional development models have failed because they were unbalanced and unsustainable either only focusing on commercial returns or too heavily aid-based: our thesis strikes the right balance between delivering solid returns to investors while being socially accountable, solving key market failures, and leveraging capital and technology to help leapfrog development. That’s our Ikigai, our reason for being, as Janngo means “Tomorrow” or “Future” in Fulani.

Diane Binder

Business executive and social entrepreneur, founding partner, and CEO of Regenepolis

The system upon which our civilizations have been thriving for over a century is fast destroying the very ecosystems that sustain us for our living—through air pollution, soil degradation, deforestation, and extinction of millions of species. It is also destroying our democratic system and values with global inequalities rising again.

Yet, people are growing more conscious of the fragility of our planet and at times of dire circumstances are looking for improved well-being and health, for an increased sense of belonging and community, and a growing care for impact. It is possible to harness this willpower to shift the system to a more favorable axis, putting the planet and people first, for a flourishing biosphere.

To do so, I believe we need to focus on regeneration, both for our societies and for nature. We need to fight for climate justice, build more equitable societies, and help safeguard the planet for future generations. We need to radically shift our production and consumption systems, the way we live together and relate to one another and the way we measure progress, as we cannot view human progress solely in terms of income and wealth but rather well-being and happiness. We need to make sure we seek prosperity within planet boundaries.

Soulaima Gourani

Entrepreneur, author and keynote speaker, CEO, and cofounder of Happioh

I believe that much of what we know today will still exist in the next 50 years. We will still eat home-cooked food; wear clothes; give birth; and experience conflicts, wars, and love just as we do today.

And all the products in existence in the last 50 years will most likely still be around in the next 50 years. However, a lot of the technologies today will become obsolete and will be replaced with better and more sophisticated ones, which are beyond our current level of comprehension. We stand on the brink of an explosion of inventions that will change our lives to the same degree as the Internet has done or more.

The 3D printing technology will lead us to the fourth industrial revolution. You will be able to print most products at home. In the beginning, you will only be able to print simple things such as a pizza, but over time, it will be possible to print highly advanced products in the privacy of your home. We will own less and rent and share more.

Sabine Herlitschka

CEO of Infineon Technologies Austria AG

Imagine driving in cars with zero emissions and arriving safe and relaxed with no traffic jams. Imagine communicating easily with people and devices by knowing your data is connected and secure. Imagine generating and consuming renewable energies wherever you are in a smart and energy efficient world. Is the future coming our way? No, we are shaping it today!

Major challenges of our times, such as climate protection or future health, need smart, often digital and data-based solutions. We are working already today on smart technologies that achieve more and consume less to make life easier, safer, and greener.

Olivier Oullier

Professor of behavioural and brain sciences and cofounder and chairman of the board of Inclusive Brains

What will be the biggest invention? Teleportation of some sort—things disappear and reappear at least for physical objects. Almost already possible, when printing items and living tissues. Yet, how does one recreate intentions and experiences is the big question.

Barbara Steiner

Director of Bauhaus Dessau Foundation

Turn less into more: Ecosystems have recovered. Humans learned how to turn less into more: first, by increasing resource efficiency and multiplying the yield from every ton of oil, copper, bauxite, ore, and from every kilowatt of electricity and second, by voluntary self-limitation, a conscious choice to live modestly in order to distribute resources more fairly and not disadvantage future generations. The weariness of consumption as an end in life, socioeconomic inequality of distribution, and the destruction of nature has led to attitude changes. All those measures have helped to reduce the gap between resource consumption and limited raw material reserves.

Coevolution with nature and the use of the productivity of nature itself paved the way, e.g., the conversion of sunlight into energy, the productivity of microbiological processes, and the process chains of organic life that knows no waste. This has led to a new nature-culture relationship and new forms of collaborations between human and nonhuman beings.

Lisa Witter

Executive, serial entrepreneur, writer and public speaker, and cofounder and executive chairman of Apolitical

A lot of what our economy is based on is basics. Political and economic model will shift to a more collaborative model, i.e., communal living. Raise to own, and manipulate the brain.