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Demography: Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes

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Reconsidering the Limits to Growth

Part of the book series: World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures ((WSEGF))

Abstract

The present chapter analyzes one of the most important factors in world development—the dynamics of global demographic growth, which demonstrates that the fears of uncontrolled population growth expressed in the framework of the report to the Club of Rome “Limits to Growth” were partially justified and were typical for the period before the 1980s. However, statistical evidence after more than half a century demonstrates that the situation has changed, and in the 1960s and early 1970s, there was a peak of global demographic growth, after which a slowdown began. According to the UN forecasts, by the end of this century, there will be a stabilization of the population of the Earth. The chapter provides an explanation for the change in the dynamics of the global demographic transition—most of economically high-income states and a significant part of developing countries have moved to the second phase of the demographic transition, in which the birth rate falls to a level corresponding to a simple replacement of generations or below that level. At the same time, a new problem has arisen associated with a decline in fertility to the “lowest-low” level—a tendency formed to the negative natural population change in many countries, which is sometimes compensated by migration processes. Along with that, the process of population aging is developing in many countries of the world, with an increase in life expectancy (LE) alongside low fertility. The indicated trends in the stabilization of the world population occur unevenly, with a fairly significant number of countries (mainly the countries of Tropical Africa) in which the second phase started not long ago, and fertility rates are still very high. At the same time, there is an acceleration of urbanization of the population in many developing countries. The chapter also notes the mutual influence of demographic processes and developments in various spheres of society and provides scenarios for their possible subsequent evolution, highlighting as a possible optimum scenario the one in which the stabilization of the Earth’s population will reduce the degree of negative anthropogenic impact on the environment, but a significant global depopulation will also be avoided. Given the unevenness of demographic processes, different approaches to stabilization have been noted: stimulating birth rate in countries with the lowest-low fertility and accelerating fertility transition in the countries with very high birth rates.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    See chapter “Africa – the Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2023, this volume) and chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Africa’s Futures” (Korotayev et al., 2023, this volume), as well as (Zinkina & Korotayev, 2014b; Korotayev & Zinkina, 2014, 2015; Nzimande & Mugwendere, 2018; Schoumaker, 2019; May & Rotenberg, 2020).

  2. 2.

    See chapter “Global Ageing – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume).

  3. 3.

    See chapter “Global Ageing – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume); see also (Goldstone, 2015; Goldstone et al. 2015; Zimmer, 2016; Bengtson, 2018; Fichtner, 2018; Mitchell & Walker, 2020).

  4. 4.

    Zinkina and Korotayev (2014a), Korotayev et al. (2016), Nzimande and Mugwendere (2018), Schoumaker (2019), May and Rotenberg (2020); see also chapter “Africa – the Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2023, this volume) and chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Africa’s Futures” (Korotayev et al., 2023, this volume) for a discussion of demographic problems in Tropical Africa. In addition, see chapter “High Income and Low Income Countries. Towards a Common Goal at Different Speeds” (Grinin et al., 2023a, this volume).

  5. 5.

    See chapter “Climate and Energy. Energy Transition Scenarios and Global Temperature Changes Based on Current Technologies and Trends” (Akaev & Davydova, 2023, this volume) and chapter “Ecology. Life in the “Unstable Biosphere”” (Kovaleva, 2023, this volume).

  6. 6.

    See chapter “Climate and Energy. Energy Transition Scenarios and Global Temperature Changes Based on Current Technologies and Trends” (Akaev & Davydova, 2023, this volume) and chapter “Ecology. Life in the “Unstable Biosphere” (Kovaleva, 2023, this volume).

  7. 7.

    See chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities, Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023, this volume), chapter “Global Ageing – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume), and Grinin et al. (2017, 2020, 2022).

  8. 8.

    Ogawa et al. (2005), Komine and Kabe (2009), Park and Shin (2015), Goldstone (2015), Barsukov (2019), Hsu and Lo (2019), Warsito (2019); see also chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin et al., 2023c, this volume); chapter “Global Ageing – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume) and chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin et al., 2023e, this volume).

  9. 9.

    See, for example, chapter “Global Ageing – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume), and also Korotayev et al. (2018), Shulgin et al. (2019), Korotayev et al. (2019), Mayr and Freund (2020), Korotayev et al. (2021).

  10. 10.

    See chapter “Global Ageing – an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume); see also Van Hiel and Brebels (2011), Tilley and Evans (2014), Korotayev et al. (2018).

  11. 11.

    For more detail see chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin et al., 2023e, this volume), chapter “Developed and Developing Countries. Towards a Common Goal at Different Speeds” (Grinin et al., 2023a, this volume); and chapter “Africa – the Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2023, this volume).

  12. 12.

    See chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Africa’s Futures” (Korotayev et al., 2023, this volume) for detail.

  13. 13.

    Cf., e.g., Soares (2005), Zinkina and Korotayev (2014a), Kebede et al. (2019); see also chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Africa’s Futures” (Korotayev et al., 2023, this volume).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. HSE University, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev, Sergey Malkov & Jameelah Musieva

  2. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

  3. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

  4. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Malkov

  5. Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Malkov

  6. Faculty of Global Studies, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Jameelah Musieva

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  1. Andrey Korotayev
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  3. Jameelah Musieva
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  1. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Viktor Sadovnichy

  2. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Askar Akaev

  3. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Ilya Ilyin

  4. Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Sergey Malkov

  5. Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Leonid Grinin

  6. HSE University, Moscow, Russia

    Andrey Korotayev

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Korotayev, A., Malkov, S., Musieva, J. (2023). Demography: Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_6

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