Abstract
The chapter discusses the necessity of choosing different strategies for different groups of countries for a successful movement to the recognized worldwide goals. In this respect, strategies as well as policies depend on different causes and conditions, including demographics, natural resources, historical traditions, etc., but especially on levels of development of countries which are very uneven. The most important and deep gap is the one between the income levels of high-income and low-income countries. However, it happens quite often when high-income countries as well as their (or world) organizations impose on low-income countries strict and almost single-type programs for economic and social reforming, transforming of agricultural or energetic spheres, and so on for achievement of approved world goals (as democracy, carbon neutrality, sustainable development, decrease of inequality and injustice, increase in state efficiency, rates of economic growth, consumptions optimizing, etc.). These programs are worked out on the basis of high-income countries’ experience and they are often not suitable for many low-income countries. Grinin et al. maintain that there should not be single-type recommendations, programs, etc. for all countries for their taking part in the world-wide movement toward common goals. There are common world goals, but for their achievement different countries would need strategies, policies, programs, and measures of different types, which would take into consideration specifics of different societies. Though there still is a great gap between high-income and low-income countries, Grinin & Korotayev note that the process of “Great Divergence” (when the abovementioned gap had been increasing since the early nineteenth century) in the recent decades was replaced by the “Great Convergence,” when this difference in development is reduced by increasing the level of development in less prosperous states. This convergence is characterized by heterogeneity—different rates of development of certain states, on the basis of which fast-growing states and less high-income states (mainly the countries of Tropical Africa) are distinguished. This feature requires different approaches in solving global problems common to all countries of the world. In view of this, Grinin et al. draw attention to the need to form global strategies for moving toward sustainable development, taking into account differences in development and available opportunities. In some countries, the level of development of capitalism has reached a level at which it is already exhausting itself and transformations are required, while there are countries in which full-fledged market relations have not yet been formed. Grinin et al. maintain that in the coming decades, the world will experience a complex continuum of types, transitions, combinations, and forms of economic structures. The authors analyze two main types. The high-income countries will experience a shift toward the strengthening of distributive institutions. The low-income countries that continue the processes of economic and socio-political modernization, in their turn, will proceed toward the strengthening of capitalist market institutions though with some important restrictions preventing exploitation and environmental degradation. All this will take place during the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, with the development of the process of internationalization of the labor force (through the development of remote employment) along with the internationalization of capital. Thus, the most important task in the coming decades is to increase the flexibility of the socioeconomic development of all countries of the world. Grinin & Korotayev believe that it is necessary to find ways to combine all the best features of capitalism in order to provide the necessary dynamism and innovativeness of development, at the same time softening all the distortions that have formed as a result of the development of capitalism over the past twenty years, bearing in mind that not so much industrial capitalism as financial and global financial capitalism is responsible for it.
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Notes
- 1.
For example, Chapter “Macrohistorical approach” (Sadovnichy et al., 2023a, this volume), Chapter “Future Society and Transition to It” (Sadovnichy et al., 2023b, this volume), Chapter “Conclusion. Reconsidering The Limits—suggestions (Come On!)” (Sadovnichy et al., 2023c, this volume), Chapter “Global aging–An integral problem of the future. How to turn a problem into a development driver?” (Grinin et al., 2023c, this volume), and Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Modern Society and a Look into the Global Futures: Cybernetic W-Society” (Akaev et al., 2023b, this volume).
- 2.
Bertrand Schneider in his report to the Club of Rome (Schneider, 1995) dwelled on wasted and misplaced aid, aid diversion scandals, development profiteers. The author proposed a new development concept: “The well-being of people and societies everywhere” (WISE) and a number of strategic applications of this concept, for example, empowerment through property rights, a radical new approach to development financing, measures to combat corruption, education, population control, strengthening the role of civil society and NGOs. These measures require tough decisions involving not only international institutions, but also member states.
- 3.
This issue has been considered in a number of reports to the Club of Rome, though not recently. In Guernier’s (1980) report, an attempt was made to comprehend the historical forms of economic development of the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. It contained a call to choose an alternative path of development, which would involve the orientation of low income countries not so much on outside assistance as on self-sufficiency. The report emphasized the need to reorganize agriculture on a priority basis of greater centralization of the financial and organizational efforts of low income countries. Report of Lenoir (1984) analyzed the problems of food shortages in low income countries and considered scenarios for the further development of these countries, taking into account the possibilities of importing food products from high income countries or their orientation towards self-sufficiency. In this study, preference was given to such ways of development of the third world, in which the emphasis was on self-sufficiency. At the same time, this report considered specific development strategies, according to which priority was given to independent agricultural communities and their self-government. Schneider in his report The Barefoot Revolution (see Schneider, 1988) is giving an overview of many small projects carried out by various teams of researchers in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Based on this review, it was emphasized that the activities of non-governmental organizations that took part in the development of small projects turned out to be more effective than the work of state institutions. However, according to Schneider, it is necessary to move from micro-projects to integrated development projects based on a global vision of the prospects of humankind. This is a new approach to development based on the understanding that the initiative of action is moving from the North to the South, the priorities of political activity are given to meeting the needs of the rural population, more attention is paid not to the export and import of food, but to its local production and consumption. What is happening today in Asia, Africa and Latin America can be called a “barefoot revolution”. It is characterized by a peaceful character and is carried out within the framework of respect for the laws. This revolution is not yet correlated with political parties and ideological structures. However, according to Schneider, over time it can develop into a political movement or become a destructive force in the hands of extremist leaders.
- 4.
Thus, Randal Collins (2013) predicts that capitalism will most likely be replaced by socialism. It lies in state ownership or tight control over the sources of profit, central planning and redistribution. The pursuit of profit should be replaced by concern for the broad masses of the population.
- 5.
To this one may add the criticism of such a basic modern indicator of economic growth as GDP. The GDP indicator is often subjected to generally fair criticism (see Chapter “Analyzing Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Life Quality Index” [Malkov et al., 2023a, this volume]; see also, e.g., Easterlin, 2010; Costanza et al., 2014; McElwee & Daly, 2014; Goldsmith, 2019; Kapoor & Debroy, 2019), but often criticism is mainly intended to hide the fact that the potential of high income states has weakened. Hence the desire to question the general need for economic growth, but the rejection of growth as a goal objectively leads to the stagnation of society (see Grinin & Grinin, 2021a, 2021b, 2021c; Grinin, 2020 for details).
- 6.
A “positive-sum game” is a situation where, as a result of the interaction of players, the gain of one player does not mean the loss of the other, and the total result of the game is greater than zero.
- 7.
- 8.
For more details on X-type and Y-type societies see Chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin et al., 2023b, this volume), Chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume), and Chapter “Analyzing Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Future Cybernetic W-Society: Socio-Political Aspects” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023a, this volume); see also Kirdina, 2014.
- 9.
The limitation of the exploitation of wage workers was largely the result of the intensified struggle of workers for their rights and the emergence of the USSR and the socialist countries as an alternative socio-economic system to capitalism.
- 10.
The greatest success in the combination of Y- and X-institutions of socio-economic development was achieved by the countries of Northern Europe.
- 11.
- 12.
Note that ongoing processes of the Great Convergence and World System reconfiguration imply the growing decrease of differences between the world-system core and periphery, as well as the movement of some former peripheral countries to the world-system core and vice versa. For example, China can be hardly characterised now as “peripheral” country, though this was quite appropriate a few decades ago. In the present world, it is rather a part of the world-system core, whereas Australia (that was often characterised as a core state [e.g., Wallerstein, 2004]), should now be more appropriately characterized as a peripheral country with respect to China (note, for example, that the main source of foreign currency for Australia now is the exportation of raw iron ore to China).
- 13.
See Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Modern Society and a Look into the Global Futures: Cybernetic W-Society” (Akaev et al., 2023b, this volume).
- 14.
- 15.
It may be denoted as a “world-organism”, see Chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume) and Chapter “Analyzing Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Future Cybernetic W-Society: Socio-Political Aspects” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023a, this volume).
- 16.
Grinin & Korotayev, 2014, 2015; Grinin, 2013; Grinin et al., 2016; Korotayev et al., 2011a, 2011b, 2015, 2020; Korotayev & de Munck, 2013, 2014; Korotayev & Zinkina, 2014; see also Chapter “Future Political Change. Toward a More Efficient World Order” (Grinin et al., 2023a, this volume) and Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023b, this volume).
- 17.
See note 12 above.
- 18.
- 19.
However, it is possible that the development of industrial robots may be delayed by Africa, which has a chance to turn into a new workshop of the world, to some extent repeating the path of China (see Chapter “Africa—the Continent of the Future. Challenges and Opportunities” (Grinin & Korotayev, 2023, this volume)). But this is a very complex issue that requires a serious study, given the large civilizational differences between China and Africa (see Grinin & Korotayev, 2016; Grinin et al., 2019: 27–57).
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Grinin, L., Malkov, S., Korotayev, A. (2023). High-Income and Low-Income Countries. Toward a Common Goal at Different Speeds. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_12
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_12
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