Abstract
Since the second half of the twentieth century, there have been radical changes in all spheres of life, which qualitatively distinguish the new phase of development from the previous ones. The chapter is devoted to the ongoing transformations in the social and political sphere, which include: the increasing digitalization of all spheres of life together with their positive and negative consequences, the change in the demographic structure of the population (including global aging), the development of global interactions, the increasing interdependence of the countries of the world, etc. The most important factor in these transformations is technological development, the Cybernetic Revolution unfolding before our eyes. These transformations lead to a serious restructuring of the social structure and sociopolitical changes. Grinin et al. consider the shape of future society, which they call “Cybernetic W-society” in different areas: technological, demographic, economic, political and administrative, international relations, social, and environmental. They also consider different scenarios of future Cybernetic W-society. According to them, as a result of the completion of the Cybernetic Revolution and the achievement by the global aging of an advanced phase, a new society will be formed–Cybernetic W-society. It will be an elderly society, with the institutionalization of age differences, relying almost entirely on smart (cybernetic) technologies and AI-based self-regulating systems. Grinin et al. also consider other scenarios and aspects of this society. They analyze two extreme alternatives which are not likely to be implemented in their pure forms but rather indicate the limits within which the actual trajectory of global evolution will proceed: (1) “new feudalism,” (2) “World-Organism.” The former alternative essentially involves the reincarnation of a totalitarian-type system in the cybernetic era, whereas the latter alternative is a society where, in the presence of a deep professional specialization of the population, there is no discrimination, management is carried out on the basis of network technologies (network technologies are used to “synchronize” collective action and to exercise direct democracy). The second variant of development—“World-Organism”—is considered as favorable because it assumes cooperation, instead of competition, as a fundamental principle in development. Grinin et al. also note that ideology, which is of a universal nature, is of great importance in an effective transition to the second developmental option, which allows overcoming the confrontation between representatives of different faiths, nationalities, and civilizations. Grinin et al. point out that it would be preferable if we could move to a future society that is based on cooperation rather than competition and, at the same time, preserves the privacy, individuality, and initiative of its citizens.
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Notes
- 1.
See Chapter “Demography. Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes” (Korotayev et al., 2023, this volume), Chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin et al., 2023c this volume), and Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023a, this volume); see also Pereira et al., 2022; Perissi & Bardi, 2021; Andersen, 2020; Bozesan, 2020; Berg, 2019; Randers et al., 2018, von Weizsäcker & Wijkman, 2018; Lovins et al., 2018; Wijkman & Skånberg, 2017.
- 2.
- 3.
See Chapter “Macrohistorical Approach” (Sadovnichy et al., 2023, this volume), Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023a, this volume), and Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Modern Society and Problems of Global Transition” (Akaev et al., 2023b, this volume).
- 4.
- 5.
- 6.
The process of deglobalization which has begun recently is not likely to stop the globalization process completely. Deglobalization, in our understanding, is a sort of ebb which is bound to be replaced with a new and stronger tide of globalization (see Grinin & Korotayev, 2021; Grinin et al., 2021b). In fact, Chase-Dunn et al. explain the possibility of deglobalization through the structural character of globalization that has both cycle and upward trend components, as periods of greater global integration have been followed by periods of deglobalization on a long-term stair-step toward the greater connectedness of humanity (Chase-Dunn et al., 2020).
- 7.
About all the three production revolutions see Chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities and Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b, this volume); see also Grinin, 2006; Grinin & Grinin, 2015a, 2015b, 2015c, 2016; Grinin et al., 2017a, 2017b. About the Agrarian or Neolithic Revolution see, e.g., Childe, 1948; Reed, 1977; Harris & Hillman, 1989; Bellwood, 2004; about the Industrial Revolution see, e.g., Cipolla, 1976; Allen, 2009, 2011; Goldstone, 2015; Mokyr, 1999; Mokyr & Voth, 2010; Grinin & Korotayev, 2015). About the initial phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, which was called the Scientific-Technical Revolution, see e.g., Bernal, 1965; Philipson, 1962; Lilley, 1976; Benson & Lloyd, 1983; Sylvester & Klotz, 1983; about the future technologies in this revolution see Fukuyama, 2002; Rifkin, 2011; Fücks, 2013; Schwab, 2016.
- 8.
On various aspects of the aging process and its impact on society see, e.g., Clark & Spengler, 1980; Lee et al., 1988; Bös & Von Weizsäcker, 1989; Peterson, 1999; Fukuyama, 2002; Jackson et al., 2008, 2013; Lee et al., 1988; Lee & Mason, 2011; UNFPA, 2012; UN Population Division, 2013, 2020; Popova & Yanik, 2014; Goldstone, 2015; Goldstone et al., 2015; Orlická, 2015; Bloom & Luca, 2016; Maestas et al., 2016; McDaniel & Zimmer, 2016; van Dullemen, 2017; Bengston, 2018; Fichtner, 2018; Randers et al., 2018; Yaşar & Yaşar, 2018; Barsukov, 2019; Hsu & Lo, 2019; Kapelyushnikov, 2019; Shcherbakova, 2019; Mitchell & Walker, 2020; Jackson, 2021; Medici, 2021). Here we try to explore global aging as an integral problem of the future (Grinin & Korotayev, 2015, 2016; Grinin et al., 2016; Grinin et al., 2017a, 2020).
- 9.
On the problem of ageism today see Chapter “Global Aging—an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin et al., 2023b, this volume).
- 10.
See Chapter “Demography. Toward Optimization of Demographic Processes” (Korotayev et al., 2023, this volume).
- 11.
- 12.
Chapter “Future Political Change. Toward a More Efficient World Order” (Grinin et al., 2023a, this volume).
- 13.
On the uneven nature of historical development see Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Global Phase Transitions” (Malkov et al., 2023a, this volume). One of transitions of this type is the transition from the era of antiquity to the era of the Middle Ages (it included the decline and collapse of the Western Roman Empire; some researchers point to a certain fundamental similarity between this empire and the modern USA). Demographic growth in the “Axial Age” (Jaspers, 1953) was associated with a powerful technological transformation of the Iron Age (with the massive introduction of iron tools in all spheres of life) and the resultant economic growth.
- 14.
- 15.
On the ways to optimize growth rates and new resources see Chapter “Economics. Optimizing Growth” (Grinin et al., 2023c, this volume). In this chapter, we also point out that the task of the society is to find ways to channel development in the direction of a course that is beneficial for it, to find the optimal combination between private initiative and social programs, between the growth of production as an important characteristic of economic development (without increasing the burden on the environment) and consumption optimization.
- 16.
- 17.
So, for example, the religion that helped in the transition from European medieval X-society to Y-society of modern times was Protestantism with its spirit of industry stimulation and the idea that successful people were God’s chosen ones (Weber, 2002 [1905]). About ideologies that stimulated the transition to capitalism see Korotayev, 2003, 2004; Korotayev et al., 2023.
- 18.
This is a consequence of the decline in the overall rate of profit and the end of an era when the “positive sum game” was the rule, not the exception to the rule.
- 19.
See Chapter “Technology. Limitless Possibilities and Effective Control” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023b, this volume); about the socio-medical-technological sphere see above and Chapter “Analyzing Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Future Cybernetic W-Society: Socio-Political Aspects” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023a, this volume).
- 20.
See Chapter “Analyzing Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Future Cybernetic W-Society: Socio-Political Aspects” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023a, this volume), Chapter “Global Aging—an Integral Problem of the Future. How to Turn a Problem into a Development Driver?” (Grinin et al., 2023b, this volume), and Chapter “Socio-Political Transformations. A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society” (Grinin et al., 2023d, this volume) for more detail.
- 21.
See Chapter “Analyzing Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. Future Cybernetic W-Society: Socio-Political Aspects” (Grinin & Grinin, 2023a, this volume).
- 22.
But it is worth noting that for the social structure of feudal and industrial, as well as modern societies, the fragmentation of social division is also characteristic. The identification of large groups—classes (to a lesser extent, estates)—is largely a result of scientific classification.
- 23.
Malkov (2021), using the basic model of economic competition, shows that when moving from a “positive-sum game” to a “zero-sum game”, competitive interactions inevitably lead to the victory of one of the parties and to economic monopoly. Under these conditions, liberal market mechanisms are transformed into distributive ones dependent on the monopolist. The question is who the distributor will be, and on what principles the distribution will be carried out. In the modern world, such monopolists can be the state, transnational companies and financial capital (in the economic sphere), Internet giants (in the information sphere).
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Grinin, L., Grinin, A., Malkov, S. (2023). Sociopolitical Transformations: A Difficult Path to Cybernetic Society. In: Sadovnichy, V., Akaev, A., Ilyin, I., Malkov, S., Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-34999-7_10
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