Climate Change, a Strong Threat to Food Security in India: With Special Reference to Gujarat

Abstract

Gujarat contributes to around 16% of industrial and 12% of agricultural production in India (GoI, India: greenhouse gas emissions 2007. Technical report. Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi, 2010b). The Government of Gujarat acknowledges that Climate Change is not just a threat to the environment; it has profound implications for economic expansion, social progress, and nearly all other aspects of human wellbeing (Grafton et al., Nat Clim Chang 3:315–321, 2013). A Department of Climate Change has been established by the government of Gujarat to deal with climate change (GoI, Twelfth five year plan (2012–2017). Economic sectors. Government of India, New Delhi, 2013). It includes Missions on Solar Energy, Augmented Power Efficiency, Resilient Ecosystems, Water, Green procurement India, Climate resilient Agriculture, and Collaborative Knowledge for Climate Change (Bring et al., Earth’s Future 3:206–217, 2015). The state of Gujarat has put in place a variety of policies and programs to address some of the issues associated with Climate Change while also assuring the attainment of sustainable development goals (Doll and Bunn, The impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems due to altered river flow regimes. In: Climate change 2014. Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp 143–146, 2014). Efforts are being taken to make farming more environmentally friendly, like setting up agro-meteorological field stations, setting up automatic weather stations, and studying Climate Change in State agriculture universities (Douglas et al., Glob Planet Chang 67:117–128, 2009). According to the Department of Agriculture, Gujarat, about 51% of the state’s land is used for farming. Agriculture makes up about 18.3% of India’s most populous state’s GDP (GoI, Climate change and India: a 44 assessment a sectoral and regional analysis for 2030s. Technical report. Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi, 2010a). Despite the Government’s efforts to address climate change, challenges persist. Agriculture in India faces numerous difficulties, one of which includes environmental unpredictability (Gosling et al., Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 7:279–294, 2011). A report from the IPCC says that by 2080–2100, India could lose 10%–40% of its crop production due to climate change. The cumulative result is expected to be a reduction in the viability of terrain for agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions. Salt concentrations’ infiltration is an issue in Gujarat due to its lengthy shoreline (Garduno et al., India groundwater governance case study. Technical report. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011). An increase in CO2 will increase the output of rice, wheat, legumes, and oilseeds by 10–20%. With each degree Celsius increase in temperature, yields of grains such as wheat, soybeans, mustard, peanuts, and potato are expected to fall by 3%–7%. There is a probability that yields of chickpeas, rabi, maize, millets, and coconuts will increase on the west coast of India (Hsu et al., J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1247–1260, 2013). In particular, to the state of Gujarat, there are not nearly enough data on the impacts of climate change on agriculture. It is anticipated that irrigated rice production in some parts of Gujarat will go down by 2030 (Gordon et al., Natl Acad Sci 102:7612–7617, 2005). According to the most recent available information, climate change will almost certainly result in more people at threat of going hungry. In 2080, the number of people who are not well-fed could rise by 5%–26% because of climate change. Agriculture, according to some assessments, is likely to be impacted in coastal regions since agriculturally productive areas are subject to flooding and soil salinity (Ghose, J Sci Ind Res 60:40–47, 2001). Climate change will have different impacts on food security in different regions of the state of Gujarat. Climate change will make it more difficult for people living in poor socio-economic regions to get their food and make food insecurity even more important (Hoff, Understanding the nexus. Background paper for the Bonn 2011. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011). The future policy environment will have a significant impact on the long-term effects of climate change (GRDC, Long-term mean monthly discharges and annual characteristics of GRDC stations/online provided by the Global Runoff Data Centre of WMO 3 19. http://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/01_GRDC/grdc_node.html, 2020).