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Potential Impacts of Urban Sprawl on the Thermal Environment in the Nanjing Metropolitan Area Based on the SLEUTH and WRF Models

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Challenges Towards Ecological Sustainability in China (JFGES 2017)

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Abstract

The urban heat island (UHI) effect threatens the livability and sustainability in many cities. In this study, taking the Nanjing metropolitan area as the study area, we first simulated and predicted urban growth by 2040 under three ecological security scenarios (i.e., low, moderate, and high) by using the Slope, Land use , Exclusion, Urban extent, Transportation , and Hillshade (SLEUTH) model . Then, we investigated the impacts of future urbanization on the urban thermal environment by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the future urban growth scenarios . Lastly, we analyzed the thermal environment characteristics corresponding to the changes in land use and urban sprawl . The results indicate that in 2040, the urban built-up land area would increase while the ecological protection grade would decrease. This means that urban sprawl would obviously affect the thermal environment and the urban heat island would intensify. The results also show that from the present to the three future scenarios (S1, S2, and S3), the areal extent of Zone 5 (pixels with air temperature >34.8 °C) would increase from 697.22 to 856.19 km2, 1236.08 km2, and 1434.78 km2, respectively, which would lead to prominent diurnal variation in the UHI intensity with higher values during nighttime. These results should be helpful for urban planners and managers to better understand urban growth impacts upon the thermal environment in the future and the corresponding measures need to be taken to ensure a livable and sustainable city .

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Institute for Earth System Science (ESSI), Nanjing University, Xianlin Ave.163, Nanjiang, 210023, Jiangsu, China

    Fanhua Kong, Fei Jiang & Jiayu Chen

  2. Department of Urban Planning and Design, Nanjing University, No. 22, Hankou Road, Nanjing, 210093, Jiangsu, China

    Haiwei Yin

Authors
  1. Fanhua Kong
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  2. Haiwei Yin
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  3. Fei Jiang
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  4. Jiayu Chen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fanhua Kong .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA

    Xiaojun Yang

  2. Institute of Groundwater and Earth Sciences, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China

    Shijun Jiang

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Kong, F., Yin, H., Jiang, F., Chen, J. (2019). Potential Impacts of Urban Sprawl on the Thermal Environment in the Nanjing Metropolitan Area Based on the SLEUTH and WRF Models. In: Yang, X., Jiang, S. (eds) Challenges Towards Ecological Sustainability in China. JFGES 2017. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03484-9_10

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