Models for Prediction Under Conditions of Interaction

  • P. C. Roberts
Part of the NATO Conference Series book series (NATOCS, volume 3)


History is replete with examples of legislation enacted to achieve specific changes but which resulted in small or negative change in the desired direction while generating unanticipated secondary effects. The attempt to introduce prohibition of alcohol consumption in the US was such a case. Analogous cases have begun to be noticed in the field of ecology. The following example is given by Holling and Goldberg.


Discount Rate Real Discount Rate Perpetual Motion Machine Real World Time Series Carriage Train 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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  1. 1.
    Holling C.S. and Goldberg M.A. (1973) Managing the Environment pages 31–32, EPY-600/5–73–010 US Government Printing OfficeGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Adam Smith Wealth of Nations, Everyman, DuttonGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Forrester J.W. (1971) World Dynamics, Wright-Allen, LondonGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Meadows D. (1972) The Limits to Growth, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Mesarovic M. and Pestel E. (1974) Mankind at the Turning Point E.P.Dutton & Co. New York 1974Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Roberts P. et al., Paper to IIASA 4th symposium on Global Modelling, September 1976.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Plenum Press, New York 1978

Authors and Affiliations

  • P. C. Roberts
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of the EnvironmentLondonUK

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