Estimation of Undiscovered Hydrocarbon Potential through Fractal Geometry

Abstract

Why is there a need to develop yet another resource assessment method, especially one based upon fractal geometry? As pointed out by Bois et al. (1979), the estimation of undiscovered hydrocarbon resources suffers from two fundamental difficulties. First, a sedimentary basin is a complex entity, for which there are only a limited number of measurements on a small subset of physical and geometrical properties for the hydrocarbon system, even after decades of exploration and production. Second, there is no universally accepted causal relation between these variables, and the occurrence and size of undiscovered fields. Rather, the assessor must choose from a variety of empirical models relating the observed variables to undiscovered hydrocarbon. These two shortcomings mean that assessments are still imprecise and uncertain, affording room for both improved accuracy and constraint of uncertainty. Occasionally, the lack of consonance between nature and the empirical model or its limited database may cause an estimate to be unexpectedly inaccurate. Without comparing several independent estimates, it is difficult to guard against being led astray by the difficult-to-detect aberration of any one method in a specific area.