Abstract
In the past decade, Markovian Analysis has been utilized for manpower planning purposes in a number of organizations. The main assumption in these models was the stability of the transition probabilities for turnover behavior. In real life this assumption is rarely met. In this paper a remedy for this problem is proposed. This remedy is the utilization of multiple transition matrices depending on the socio-economic changes in the work environment.
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References
J.W. Merck, A. Markovian Model for Projecting Movements of Personnel Through a System, Technical Report 65–6 (1965)
H. Victor Vroom and Kenneth R. MacCrimmon, “Towards a Stochastic Model of Managerial Careers,” Administrative Science Quarterly, XIII (June, 1968), 24–46
Mason Haire, “Approach to an Integrated Personnel Policy,” Industrial Relations, VII (February, 1968), 107–117
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B.Curtis Eaton, “Studying Mass Layoff Through Markov Chains,” Industrial Relations, IX (October, 1970), 394–403
Uyar, Kivilcim M., “Markov-Chain Forecasts of Employee Replacement Needs,” Industrial Relations, Vol.11, No. 1, February 1972, pp.96–106.
Uyar, op.cit., pp. 96–106.
Common examples for this would be: Changes in national unemployment rate, supply and demand fluctuations, changes in management, etc.
The expected desired level of employment was not available for this analysis.
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© 1978 Plenum Press, New York
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Uyar, K., Uyar, C.K. (1978). Manpower Planning Under Stochastic Turnover Behavior. In: Bryant, D.T., Niehaus, R.J. (eds) Manpower Planning and Organization Design. NATO Conference Series, vol 7. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-4622-7_26
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-4622-7_26
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
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