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A Systemic Approach for Early Warning in Crisis Prevention and Management

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Human Systems Engineering and Design II (IHSED 2019)

Abstract

Given the importance of early warning in crisis prevention this paper discusses both knowledge-based and data-driven approaches. Traditional knowledge-based methods are often of limited suitability for use in crisis prevention and management, since they typically use a model which has been designed in advance. Novel data-driven Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods such as Deep Learning demonstrate promising skills to learn implicitly from data alone, but require significant computing capacities and a large amount of annotated, high-quality training data. This paper addresses research results on concepts and methods that may serve as building blocks for realizing a decision support tool based on hybrid AI methods, which combine knowledge-based and data-driven methods in a dynamic way and provide an adaptable solution to mitigate the downsides of each individual approach.

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Acknowledgments

Inputs to the paper from Marian Sorin Nistor are gratefully acknowledged.

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Correspondence to Jennifer Sander .

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Kuwertz, A., Moll, M., Sander, J., Pickl, S. (2020). A Systemic Approach for Early Warning in Crisis Prevention and Management. In: Ahram, T., Karwowski, W., Pickl, S., Taiar, R. (eds) Human Systems Engineering and Design II. IHSED 2019. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1026. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-27928-8_78

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