The Very Long Game

This open access book is the outcome of a unique multinational effort organized by the Hamburg-based Defense AI Observatory (DAIO) to portray the current state of affairs regarding the use of artificial intelligence (AI) by armed forces around the world. The contributions span a diverse range of geostrategic contexts by providing in-depth case studies on Australia, Canada, China, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine, the UK, and the United States. The book does not speculate about the future implications of AI on armed forces, but rather discusses how armed forces are currently exploring the potential of this emerging technology. By adopting a uniform analytical framework, each case study discusses how armed forces view defense AI; how they are developing AI-enhanced solutions, adapting existing structures and processes, and funding their defense AI endeavors; to what extent defense AI is already fielded and operated; and how soldiers and officers are being trained to work with AI.

“The Very Long Game is an eye-opening book. AI has the potential to be the single greatest force multiplier for armed forces in human history. But how to prepare armed forces to successfully leverage AI? This is the key question at the core of The Very Long Game. An impressive selection of 25 international case studies convincingly illustrates that conceptual, cultural, organizational, and operational transformation need to go hand in hand with technological innovation for AI to make a difference. Written by expert analysts and practitioners, The Very Long Game compellingly blends theoretical with practical insight and sets the standard for comparative defense AI analyses. Military leaders, industry experts, and scholars will greatly benefit from reading this book.” (Gen (ret) John Allen, Former Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force and US Forces in Afghanistan, past President of The Brookings Institution, and Strategic Advisor to the Microsoft Corporation)

“A most timely comparative study, rich in empirical analysis, that examines the “drivers, pace and priorities” of defense AI across 25 nations. This volume is a vital resource for anyone interested in military innovation and defense transformation.” (Prof. Theo Farrell, PhD, President and Vice-Chancellor, La Trobe University)

“The Very Long Game is an absolute must-have for everyone interested in defense AI! 25 case studies provide a comprehensive in-depth look at the current practice and future trajectories of defense AI across different regions. One of the book’s key strengths is the unitary analytical framework, which makes the detailed case studies easily accessible and provides insightful findings on cross-regional commonalities and differences.” (Joonsoo Park, Director, Defense Acquisition and Industries Division, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)

“The Very Long Game is an excellent and timely volume, bringing out comparative strengths and weaknesses of over two dozen countries who are interested and invested in AI. That the volume dwells into details on how each of the nations is preparing for AI adoption in military and defense strategies is particularly relevant. The Very Long Game is a must read for policy makers, practitioners as well as academia, who are interested in technologies and future warfare.” (Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Director, Center for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation)

“The use of AI by the armed forces is a major issue for the development of national military power and the shape of geopolitical competition. Indeed, military AI is the subject of many speculations regarding the future character of warfare, as well as ethical concerns about the proper interactions between human decision-makers and AI-enabled weapons systems. This book provides the reader with a much-needed overview of what different military organizations around the world actually do to implement AI in the conduct of their daily operations. Looking at countries varying in size, resources, or strategic priorities, it gives a solid conceptual and empirical foundation to analyze the current and future developments in the military use of AI.” (Prof. Dr. Olivier Schmitt, Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark)

Dr. Heiko Borchert is Co-Director of the Defense AI Observatory at the Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg (Germany), an Associate Fellow at the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS), Bonn (Germany), and a subject matter expert at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies.

Torben Schütz is the DAIO Research Fellow for conflict analysis, a PhD candidate at the Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg (Germany), and an Associate Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

Dr. Joseph Verbovszky is the DAIO Research Fellow for defense technology and industrial affairs.