Abstract
The contributions of radiative forcing of greenhouse gases (GHG) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to the trends in global surface air temperature (GST) and surface air temperature for different latitude bands are estimated. Instrumental observational data obtained since the middle of the 19th century and three-component autoregressive models are used. Characteristics of influences of both factors on GST (Wiener–Granger causality) are obtained. The contribution of AMO over the length intervals of 15–30 years appears comparable in absolute value to the contribution of GHG and sometimes even exceeds it, while its contribution over 60-year and longer periods is insignificant. During the recent decades, GHG contribute stronger to the trends of GST and tropical surface air temperature, while their contribution to the trends in surface air temperature in the middle and high latitudes is smaller.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
G. V. Alekseev, “Arctic Dimension of Global Warming,” Led i Sneg, No. 2, 54 (2014) [in Russian].
Second Roshydromet Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in the Russian Federation (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian].
G. V. Gruza and E. Ya. Ran'kova, Observed and Expected Climate Changes in the Russian Federation: Air Temperature (VNIIGMI-MTsD, Obninsk, 2012) [in Russian].
I. I. Mokhov, “Russian Climate Studies in 2011–2014,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 5, 53 (2017) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 5, 53 (2017)].
I. I. Mokhov, “Contemporary Climate Changes in the Arctic,” Vestnik Akad. Nauk, No. 5–6, 85 (2015) [Herald of the Russ. Acad. Sci., No. 3, 85 (2015)].
I. I. Mokhov, V. A. Bezverkhnii, A. V. Eliseev, and A. A. Karpenko, “Interrelation between Variations in the Global Surface Air Temperature and Solar Activity Based on Observations and Reconstructions,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 1, 409 (2006) [Dokl. Earth Sci., No. 5, 409 (2006)].
I. I. Mokhov, V. A. Bezverkhnii, A. V. Eliseev, and A. A. Karpenko, “Model Estimations of Possible Climatic Changes in 21st Century at Different Scenarios of Solar and Volcanic Activ tties and Anthropogenic Impact,” Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 4, 46 (2008) [Cosmic Res., No. 4, 46 (2008)].
I. I. Mokhov, V. A. Bezverkhnii, A. V. Eliseev, and A. A. Karpenko, “Model Estimates of Global Climatic Changes in the 21st Century with Account for Different Variation Scenarios of Solar Activíty,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 2, 411 (2006) [Dokl. Earth Sci., No. 8, 411 (2006)].
I. I. Mokhov and A. A. Karpenko, “Simulation of the Warming in the Area of the Arctic Peninsula,” Problemy Arktiki i Antarktiki, No. 76 (2007) [in Russian].
I. I. Mokhov, A. A. Karpenko, and P. A. Stott, “Highest Rates of Regional Climate Warming over the Last Decades and Assessment of the Role of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 4, 406 (2006) [Dokl. Earth Sci., No. 1, 406 (2006)].
I. I. Mokhov, V. A. Semenov, V. Ch. Khon, and F. A. Pogarskii, “Climate Trends in the Northern Hemisphere High Latitudes: Detection and Simulation,” Led i Sneg, No. 2, 53 (2013) [in Russian].
I. I. Mokhov and D. A. Smirnov, “Relation between the Variations in the Global Surface Temperature, El Nino/La Nina Phenomena, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 5, 467 (2016) [Dokl. Earth Sci., No. 2, 467 (2016)].
I. I. Mokhov and D. A. Smirnov, “Diagnostics of a Cause-Effect Relation between Solar Activity and the Earth's Global Surface Temperature,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 3, 44 (2008) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 3, 44 (2008)].
I. I. Mokhov and D. A. Smirnov, “Estimating the Contributions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Variations in the Atmospheric Concentration of Greenhouse Gases to Surface Air Temperature Trends from Observations,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 1, 480 (2018) [Dokl. Earth Sci., No. 1, 480 (2018)].
I. I. Mokhov and D. A. Smirnov, “The Trivariate Seasonal Analysis of Couplings between El Niiio, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Monsoon,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 12 (2016) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No 11–12, 41 (2016)].
I. I. Mokhov and D. A. Smirnov, “Empirical Estimates of the Influence of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors on the Global Surface Temperature,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk, No. 5, 426 (2009) [Dokl. Earth Sci., No. 5, 427 (2009)].
I. I. Mokhov, D. A. Smirnov, and A. A. Karpenko, “Relationship of Global Surface Air Temperature Changes with Various Natural and Anthropogenic Factors: Estimates Based on Observations,” in Problems of Ecological Monitoring and Ecosystem Modeling, No. 24 (2011) [in Russian].
D. A. Smirnov and I. I. Mokhov, “Estimation of Interaction between Climatic Processes: Effect of Sparse Sample of Analyzed Data Series,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana, No. 5, 49 (2013) [Izv., Atmos. Oceanic Phys., No. 5, 49 (2013)].
A. Attanasio, “Testing for Linear Granger Causality from Natural/Anthropogenic Forcings to Global Temperature Anomalies,” Theor. Appl. Climatl., No. 1–2, 110 (2012).
A. Attanasio, A. Pasini, and U. Triacca, “A Contribution to Attribution of Recent Global Warming by Out-of-sample Granger Causality Analysis,” Atmos. Sci. Lett., No. 1, 13 (2012).
A. Attanasio, A. Pasini, and U. Triacca, “Granger Causality Analyses for Climatic Attribution,” Atmos. Clim. Sci., 3 (2013).
A. Attanasio and U. Triacca, “Detecting Human Influence on Climate Using Neural Networks Based Granger Causality,” Theor. Appl. Climatl., No. 1–2, 103 (2011).
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Doschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013).
C. W. J. Granger, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods,” Econometrica, No. 3, 37 (1969).
J. Imbers, A. Lopez, C. Huntingford, and M. R. Allen, “Testing the Robustness of the Anthropogenic Climate Change Detection Statements Using Different Empirical Models,” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118 (2013).
R. K. Kaufmann, and D. I. Stern, “Evidence for Human Influence on Climate from Hemispheric Temperature Relations,” Nature, 388 (1997).
E. Kodra, S. Chatterjee, and A. R. Ganguly, “Exploring Granger Causality between Global Average Observed Time Series of Carbon Dioxide and Temperature,” Theor. Appl. Climatl., No. 3–4, 104 (2011).
J. L. Lean and D. H. Rind, “How Natural and Anthropogenic Influences Alter Global and Regional Surface Temperatures: 1889 to 2006,” Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 (2008).
J. L. Lean and D. H. Rind, “How Will Earth's Surface Temperature Change in Future Decades?", Geophys. Res. Lett., 36 (2009).
A. Pasini, U. Triacca, and A. Attanasio, “Evidence of Recent Causal Decoupling between Solar Radiation and Global Temperature,” Environ. Res. Lett., No. 3, 7 (2012).
F. Pithan and T. Mauritsen, “Arctic Amplification Dominated by Temperature Feedbacks in Contemporary Climate Models,” Nature Geosci., 7 (2014).
R. Reichel, P. Thejll, and K. Lassen, “The Cause-and-effect Relationship of Solar Cycle Length and the Northern Hemisphere Air Surface Temperature,” J. Geophys. Res., No. A8, 106 (2001).
D. A. Smirnov and I. I. Mokhov, “From Granger Causality to "Long-term Causaltty": Application to Climatic Data,” Phys. Rev. E, No. 1, 80 (2009).
D. A. Smirnov and I. I. Mokhov, “Relating Granger Causality to Long-term Causal Effects,” Phys. Rev. E, No. 4, 92 (2015).
D. I. Stern and R. K. Kaufmann, “Anthropogenic and Natural Causes of Climate Change,” Climatic Change, 122 (2014).
A. Stips, D. Macias, C. Coughlan, E. Garcia-Gorriz, and X. San Liang, “On the Causal Structure between CO2 and Global Temperature,” Sci. Rep., 6 (2016).
L. Sun and M. Wang, “Global Warming and Global Dioxide Emission: An Empirical Study,” J. Environ. Management, 46 (1996).
R. S. J. Tol and A. F. de Vos, “A Bayesian Statistical Analysis of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect,” Clim. Change, 38 (1998).
R. S. J. Tol and A. F. de Vos, “Greenhouse Statistics——Time Series Analysis,” Theor. Appl. Climatl., 48 (1993).
U. Triacca, “Is Granger Causality Analysis Appropriate to Investigate the Relationship between Atmospheric Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Global Surface Air Temperature?", Theor. Appl. Climatl., 81 (2005).
U. Triacca, “On the Use of Granger Causaltty to Investigate the Human Influence on Climate,” Theor. Appl. Climatl., 69 (2001).
U. Triacca, A. Attanasio, and A. Pasini, “Anthropogenic Global Warming Hypothesis: Testing Its Robustness by Granger Causality Analysis,” Environmetrics, No. 4, 24 (2013).
P. F. Verdes, “Assessing Causality from Multivariate Time Series,” Phys. Rev. E., 72 (2005).
P. F. Verdes, “Global Warming is Driven by Anthropogenic Emissions: A Time Series Analysis Approach,” Phys. Rev. Lett., 99 (2007).
N. Wiener, “Theory of Prediction," in Modern Mathematics for the Engineer, Ed. by E. F. Beckenbach (McGraw-Hill, New York, 1956).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © I.I. Mokhov, D.A. Smirnov, 2018, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2018, No. 9, pp. 5–13.
About this article
Cite this article
Mokhov, I.I., Smirnov, D.A. Contribution of Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Surface Air Temperature Trends. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 43, 557–564 (2018). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373918090017
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373918090017