Abstract
Different means to estimate changes in fire-hazard conditions in the Russian forests are analyzed in connection with climate changes. Climate data are considered as based upon standard observations and calculated characteristics obtained from the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Space distributions are calculated of changes in extreme conditions for fire hazard at the end of the 21st century, as compared with those at the end of the 20th century.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
S. M. Vonskii, Determination of Fire Hazard in Forest. Methodological Recommendations (LenNIILKh, Leningrad, 1975) [in Russian].
Yu. A. Dovgalyuk, E. V. Orenburgskaya, and T. L. Uglanova, Characteristics of Resource Convective Clouds over Forest Fire-Hazardous Regions in Asian RSFSR and Separate Arid Regions in European USSR (Gidrometeizdat, Leningrad, 1991) [in Russian].
K. L. Egorov, S. V. Marunich, E. K. Mol’kentin, et al., “Model Estimates of Thermal Conditions in a Forest Canopy,” Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, No. 10 (2003) [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 10 (2003)].
V. M. Kattsov, S. V. Vavulin, V. A. Govorkova, and T. V. Pavlova, “Scenarios of the Arctic Climate Changes in the Twenty-First Century,” Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, No. 10 (2003) [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 10 (2003)].
A. L. Kats, V. A. Gusev, T. A. Shabunina, Methodological Guide on Forecasting Fire Hazard in Forests from Weather Conditions (Russ. Acad. Sci., Moscow, 1975) [in Russian].
N. P. Kurbatskii, “Fire Hazard in the Forest and its Measurement Using Local Scales,” in Forest Fires and Their Control (USSR Acad. Sci., Moscow, 1963) [in Russian].
S. P. Malevskii-Malevich, E. K. Mol’kentin, E. D. Nadezhina, et al., “Possible Change of Active-Layer Depths in the Permafrost Regions of Russia in the Twenty-First Century,” Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, No. 12 (2003) [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 12 (2003)].
S. P. Malevskii-Malevich, E. K. Mol’kentin, E. D. Nadezhina, and O. B. Shklyarevich, “Evaluation of Potential Forest Fire Danger in Russian Forests Under Climate Warming in the 21st Century,” Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, No. 3 (2005) [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 3 (2005)].
V. G. Nesterov, Forest Fire Hazard and Methods of Its Determination (Goslesbumizdat, Moscow, 1949) [in Russian].
T. J. Brown and B. L. Hall, “Assessing Long-term Fire Danger Variability and Change from Climate Model Output,” in Proc. AMS 4th Symp. on Fire and Forest Meteorology, November 2001.
C. Carcaillet, Y. Bergeron, P. J. H. Richard, et al., “Change of Fire Frequency in Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest During the Holocene: Does Vegetation Composition or Climate Trigger the Fire Regime?” J. Ecol., 89 (2001).
S. Chambers and F. S. Chapin, “Fire Effects on Surface-Atmosphere Exchange in Alaskan Black Spruce Ecosystems: Implementations for Feedbacks to Regional climate,” J. Geophys. Res., No. D1 8153, 108 (2003).
T. I. Delworth, R. J. Stouffer, K. W. Dixon, et al., “Review of simulation of climate variability and change by the GFDL R30 coupled climate model,” Climate Dynamics, No. 7, 19 (2002).
M. A. Fosberg, B. J. Stocks, and T. J. Lynham, “Risk Analysis in Strategic Planning: Fire and Climate Change in the Boreal Forest,” in Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia, Ed. by J. G. Goldammer and V. V. Furyaev (Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publ., 1996).
C. Gordon, C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, et al., “The Simulation of SST, Sea Ice Extents and Ocean Heat Transports in a Version of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Without Flux Adjustment,” Climate Dynamics, 16 (2000).
H. B. Gordon and S. P. O’Farrell, “Transient Climate Change in the CSIRO Coumpled Model with Dynamic Sea Ice,” Mon. Wea. Rev., 125 (1997).
P. Y. A. Groisman, R. W. Knight, R. R. Haim, et al., “Contemporary Climate Changes in High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere: Cause an Increasing Potential Forest fire Danger,” in: Proc. 5th AMS Symp. on Fire and Forest Meteorology Joint with 2nd Int. Wild Land Ecology and Fire Management Congress, November 2003, Ontario, Florida.
IPCC 2000. The SRES Scenarios, Available at http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk.
IPCC 2001. Climate Change: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, et al. (eds.) (Cambridge University Press, UK, 2001).
M. D. Li, C. Flannigan, and L. G. W. Corns, “Influence of Potential Climate Change on Forest Landscape Dynamics of West-Central Alberta,” Can. J. For. Res., 30 (2000).
A. V. Mescherskaya and V. G. Blaszevich, “The Drought and Excessive Moisture Indices in the Historical Perspective in the Principal Grain Producing Regions of the Former Soviet Union,” J. Climate, 10 (1997).
B. J. Stocks, “Forest Fires in the Boreal Zone: Climate Change and Carbon Implications,” IFFN, 31 (2004).
B. J. Stocks, M. A. Fosberg, T. J. Lynham, et al., “Climate Change and Forest Fire Potential in Russian and Canadian Boreal Forests,” Climatic Change, 38 (1998).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Original Russian Text © S.P. Malevskii Malevich, E.K. Mol’kentin, E.D. Nadezhina, A.A. Semioshina, I.A. Sall’, E.I. Khlebnikova, O.B. Shklyarevich, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2007, No. 3, pp. 14–24.
About this article
Cite this article
Malevskii-Malevich, S.P., Mol’kentin, E.K., Nadezhina, E.D. et al. Analysis of changes in fire-hazard conditions in the forests in Russia in the 20th and 21st centuries on the basis of climate modeling. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 32, 154–161 (2007). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373907030028
Received:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373907030028