Abstract
Many climate parameters are linked to periodic processes and may be predicted a few years in advance. Many climate processes are associated with astronomical and geophysical factors. This paper discusses the possibility of identifying similar tendencies in the variations of global and local climate characteristics and Earth’s rotational velocity using a method for constructing and analyzing the of two-channel autoregression model. Variations in the observed annually average deviations from the standard length of the day are compared with global temperature anomalies for the period of 1886–2007. The maxima of the coherence functions are observed for variations with periods of 41, 22, 13, 6.7, and 5.8 years. Main variations in the diurnally average meteorological parameters observed at Nikitskii Garden agrometeorological station for the two last years are identified. For these variations, we obtained a mathematical description usable to construct a local prediction. It is found that the coherence between local meteorological observations and variations in the length of the day has maxima for variations with periods of 26.9, 13.8, and 9.1 days.
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Original Russian Text © G.S. Kurbasova, S.P. Korsakova, M.N. Rybalova, G.N. Shlikar, 2011, published in Izvestiya Krymskoi Astrofizicheskoi Observatorii, 2011, Vol. 107, pp. 134–144.
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Kurbasova, G.S., Korsakova, S.P., Rybalova, M.N. et al. Correlations of changes in the Earth’s rotational velocity and some climate characteristics: Spectral estimation in two-channel autoregression models. Bull.Crim. Astrophys. Observ. 107, 90–97 (2011). https://doi.org/10.3103/S0190271711010116
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S0190271711010116