Notes
This is by no means an original observation. It is found as a common theme in the international economic literature of the 1920s and 1930s, as part of the rejection of Cassel’s more extreme versions of purchasing power parity. See, for example, Angell (1922), Terborgh (1926), and Viner (1937). A citation from Viner (p. 385): “But the divergences between actual exchange rates and those required by the purchasing power parity formula are in fact frequently substantial, and the ‘disturbances’ from which such divergences result need not by any means be temporary in character, so that a longer period would lessen the divergence, but may in fact be progressive in character though time.”
References
Angell, James W., 1922, “International Trade Under Inconvertible Paper,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp. 359–412.
Cashin, Paul, Luis F. Cespedes, and Ratna Sahay, 2004, “Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 75, pp. 239–68.
Cashin, Paul, and C. John McDermott, 2006, “Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Fast, Slow or Not at All,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 53, No. 1, pp. 64–89.
Chen, Yu-chin, and Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002, Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles, IMF Working Paper 02/27 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1996, “The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle,” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 34, pp. 647–68.
Terborgh, G.W., 1926, “The Purchasing-Power Parity Theory,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 197–208.
Viner, Jacob, 1937, Studies in the Theory of International Trade (New York/London: Harper and Brothers).
Additional information
The author was the Director of the IMF Research Department from 1958–79. He thanks Paul Cashin for criticism of an earlier version of this note.
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Polak, J.J. Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: A Puzzle or a Nonissue?. IMF Econ Rev 53, 476–478 (2006). https://doi.org/10.2307/30035922
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/30035922