Abstract
Decreasing diversity and plant cover, as well as increasing variability of these characteristics with increasing aridity are expected in grasslands due to climate change. These predictions were tested in perennial sand grasslands in Hungary. Two sites were chosen in different positions on an aridity gradient and two stands in each site were monitored for 9 years. Presence of plant species were recorded along 52 m long circular belt transects of 1040 units of 5 cm x 5 cm contiguous microquadrats. This sampling procedure – a version of line-intercept methods – enabled us to monitor diversity and total abundance in a sensitive, precise and non-destructive way. We found no trend but fluctuation in most community level attributes and in species composition. Contrary to fluctuations, between-site differences in diversity did not change and diversity remained lower in the more arid site during our 9-year-study. Compositional diversity performed better than species diversity because allowed us to detect vegetation changes that would have remained hidden if monitoring would be based only on the species richness. Comparing the magnitudes of fluctuations, five times higher relative interannual variability (CV%) was found for compositional diversity at the more arid site, while the relative temporal variability of total abundance and species richness did not show consistent patterns. We conclude that a 9 year-long study was too short to identify trends caused by the changing climate. However, the larger temporal variability of species combinations found in the more arid site suggests larger vulnerability and highlights the importance of non-linear dynamics during climate changes.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Bai, Y., Han, X., Wu, J., Chen, Z. and Li, L. 2004. Ecosystem stability and compensatory effects in the Inner Mongolia grassland. Nature 431: 181–184.
Bartha, S. 2007. Composition, differentiation and dynamics of the grasslands of the forest steppe biom. In: Illyés E. and Bölöni J. (eds.), Slope Steppes, Loess Steppes and Forest Steppe Meadows in Hungary. Budapest, pp. 194–210.
Bartha, S., Czárán, T. and Podani, J. 1998. Exploring plant community dynamics in abstract coenostate spaces. Abst. Bot. 22: 49–66.
Bartholy, J., Pongrácz, R. and Gelybó, Gy. 2007. Regional climate change expected in Hungary for 2071–2100. Appl. Ecol. & Environ. Res. 5: 1–17.
Biró, M. 2006. Vegetation reconstruction based on historical vegetation maps and applications to the Danube-Tisza Interfluve. PhD Thesis, Pécs.
Biró, M. and Molnár, Zs. 1998. Vegetation and land-use history in the sand dunesof the Duna-Tisza köze from the 18th century and mapping of landscape types of the late 18th century. Történeti Földrajzi Füzetek 5: 1–34.
Borhidi, A. 1993. Characteristics of the climate of the Danube-Tisza Mid-region. In: Szujkó-Lacza, J. and Kováts, D. (eds.), The Flora of the Kiskunság National Park. In the Danube-Tisza Mid-Region of Hungary (Vol. I. The flowering plants). Magyar Természettudományi Múzeum, Budapest. pp. 9–20.
Campbell, R. C. 1974. Statistics for Biologists. 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Canullo, R. and Campetella, G. 2005. Spatial patterns of plant species, guilds and biological types in the regenerative phase of a beech coppice (Torricchio Mountain Nature Reserve, Apennines, Italy). Acta Bot. Gallica 152: 529–543.
Canullo, R. and Campetella, G. 2006. Structural and dynamic variables in regenerating and primary phytocoenoses of the Tilio-Carpinetum community in Bialowieza National Park. Polish Botanical Studies 22: 123–135.
Csecserits, A., Szabó, R., Halassy, M. and Rédei. T. 2007. Testing the validity of successional predictions on an old-field chronose-quence in Hungary. Community Ecology 8: 195–207.
Csillag, F., Kertész, M., Davidson, A. and Mitchell, S. 2001. On the measurement of diversity-productivity relationships in a northern mixed grass prairie (Grassland National Park, Saskatchewan, Canada). Community Ecology 2: 145–159.
Csintalan, Zs., Takács, Z., Proctor, M. C. F., Nagy, Z. and Tuba, Z. 2000. Early morning photosynthesis of the moss Tortula ruralis following summer dew fall in a Hungarian temperate dry sandy grassland. Plant Ecology 151: 51–54.
Czúcz, B., Kröel-Dulay, G, Rédei, T, Botta-Dukát, Z, Molnár, Zs (eds.) 2007. Climate change and biological diversity – explorative analysis for a more effective adaptation strategy in Hungary. Research Report, manuscript (in Hungarian with English summary). Institute of Ecology and Botany, H.A.S. Vácrátót, Hungary.
Dormann, C.F. 2007. Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic and Applied Ecology 8: 387–397.
Dullinger, S., Dirnböck, T. and Grabherr, G. 2004. Modelling climate change-driven treeline shifts: relative effects of temperature increase, dispersal and invisibility. J. Ecol. 92: 241–252.
Dunne, J.A., Saleska, S.R., Fischer, M.L. and Harte, J. 2004. Integrating experimental and gradient methodsin ecological climate change research. Ecology 85: 904–916.
Fekete, G. 1992. The holistic view of succession reconsidered. Coenoses 7: 21–29.
Fekete, G., Kun, A. and Molnár, Zs. 1999. Chorological gradient in the forest flora of the Danube-Tisza Mid-region. Kitaibelia 4: 343–346.
Fekete, G. and Molnár, E. 2005. Influences of climate on plant species, communities and ecosystems: a minireview. Bot. Közlem. 92: 173–187. (in Hungarian)
Gehrig-Fasel, J., Guisan, A. and Zimmermann, N.E. 2007. Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment? J. Veg. Sci. 18: 571–582.
Gosz, J., Peters, D., Kertész, M., Kovács-Láng, E., Kröel-Dulay, Gy. and Bartha, S. 2000. Organization of grasslands along ecological gradients: US-Hungarian LTER Grassland cooperation. In: Lajtha, K. and Vanderbilt, K. (eds.), Cooperation in Long term Ecological Research in central and eastern Europe. Proceedings of the ILTER Regional Workshop, 22–25 June, 1999. Budapest. Hungary. Oregon State University. Corvallis. OR. pp. 67–76.
Graham, M..H. 2003. Confronting multicollinearity in ecological multiple regression. Ecology 84: 2809–2815.
Guisan, A., Theurillat, J-P. and Kienast, F. 1998. Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an alpine environment. J. Veg. Sci. 9: 65–74.
Guisan, A., Lehmann, A., Ferrier, S., Austin, M., Overton J. MC.C., Aspinall, R. and Hastie, T. 2006. Making better biogeographical predictions of species’ distributions. J. Appl. Ecol. 43: 386–392.
Gunderson, L.H. and Pritchard Jr. L. (eds.) 2002. Resilience and the Behaviour of Large-scale Systems. Island Press, Washington.
Hamerlynck, E. P., Tuba, Z., Csintalan, Zs., Nagy, Z., Henebry, G. and Goddin, D. 2000. Diurnal variation in photochemical dynamics and surface reflectance of the desiccation-tolerant moss, Tortula ruralis. Plant Ecology 151: 55–63.
Herben T., Krahulec, F., Hadincová, F. and Kovárová, M. 1993. Small- scale variability as a mechanism for large-scale stability in mountain grasslands. J. Veg. Sci. 4: 163–170.
Hughes, L. 2000. Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already. TREE 15: 56–61.
Iverson, L.R. and Prasad, A.M. 2001. Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change. Ecosystems 4: 186–199.
Jobbágy, E.G., Sala O.E., Paruelo, J.M. 2002. Patterns and controls of primary production in the Patagonian steppe: a remore sensing approach. Ecology 83: 307–319.
Juhász-Nagy, P. and Podani, J. 1983. Information theory methods for the study of spatial processes and succession. Vegetatio 51: 129–140.
Kercher, S.M., Frieswyk, C.B. and Zedler, J.B. 2003. Effects of sampling teams and estimation methods on the assessment of plant cover. J. Veg. Sci. 14: 899–906.
Kim, E-S. 2006. Development, potentials, and challenges of the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) Network. Ecol. Res. 21: 788–793.
Knapp, A. K., Briggs, J.M., Hartnett, D.C. and Collins, S.L. (eds.) 1998. Grassland Dynamics. Long-term Ecological Research in Tallgrass Prairie. Oxford Univ. Press, N.Y.
Kovács-Láng, Ε, Kröel-Dulay, Gy., Kertész, M., Fekete, G., Mika, J., Rédei, T., Rajkai, K., Hahn, I. and Bartha, S. 2000. Changes in the composition of sand grasslands along a climatic gradient in Hungary and implications for climate change. Phytocoenologia 30: 385–407.
Kovács-Láng, Ε., Molnár, Ε., Kröel-Dulay, Gy. and Barabás, S. (eds.) 2008. The KISKUN LTER. Long-term ecological research in the Kiskunság, Hungary. Vácrátót: Institute of Ecology and Botany, H.A.S.
Kratz, Τ.Κ., Deegan, L.A., Harmon, Μ.Ε. and Lauenroth, W.K. 2003. Ecological variability in space and time: insights gained from the US LTER program. BioScience 53: 57–67.
Kun, A. 2001. Analysis of precipitation year types and their regional frequency distributions in the Danube-Tisza Mid-Region, Hungary. Acta Bot. Hung. 43: 175–187.
Lepš, J. 2004. Variability in population and community biomass in a grassland community affected by environmental productivity and diversity. Oikos 107: 64–71.
Lhotsky, B., Kovács-Láng, Ε. and Veres, K. 2008. The role of the cryptogam layer in the sand grasslands. In: Kovács-Láng, E., Molnár, Ε., Kröel-Dulay, Gy. and Barabás, S. (ed.). The KISKUN LTER, Long-term ecological research in the Kiskunság, Hungary. Institute of Ecology and Botany, H.A.S., Vácrátót. pp. 45–46.
Loreau, M., Naeem, S., Inchausti, P., Bengtsson, J., Grime, J.P., Hector, Α., Hooper, D.U., Huston, M.A., Raffaelli, D., Schmid, B., Tilman, D. and Wardle, D.A. 2001. Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: current knowledge and future challenges. Science 294: 804–808.
McNaughton, S.J. 1988. Diversity and stability. Nature 333: 204–205.
Mika, J. 1988. Regional features of the global warming in the Carpathian Basin. Időjárás: 92: 178–198. (in Hungarian).
Molnár, Κ. and Mika, J. 1997. Climate as a changing component of landscape: recent evidence and projections for Hungary. Z. Geomorph. N.F. 110: 185–195.
Molnár, Zs. (ed.) 2003. Sanddunes in Hungary, Kiskunság. TermészetBÚVÁR Alapítvány Kiadó, Budapest.
Molnár, Zs. and Botta-Dukát, Ζ. 1998. Improved space-for-time substitution for hypothesis generation: secondary grasslands with documented site history in SE-Hungary. Phytocoenologia 28: 1–29.
Murphy, S.R. and Lodge, G.M. 2002. Ground cover in temperate native perennial grass pastures. I. A comparison of four estimation methods. Rangel. J. 24: 288–300.
Paruelo, J.M., Sala, O.E. and Beltrán, A.B. 2000. Long-term dynamics of water and carbon in semi-arid ecosystems: a gradient analysis in the Patagonian steppe. Plant Ecology 150: 133–143.
Pickett, S.T.A. 1989. Space-for-Time Substitution as an Alternative to Long-Term Studies. In: Likens, G.E. (eds.), Long-term Studies in Ecology: Approaches and Alternatives. Springer, New York, pp. 110–135.
Podani, J. 1987. Computerized sampling in vegetation studies. Coenoses 2: 9–18.
Podani, J. 1993 SYN-TAXpc. Version 5.0. User’s guide. Scientia, Budapest.
Podani, J. 2006. With a machete through the jungle: some thoughts on community diversity. Acta Biotheoretica 54: 125–131.
Podani, J., Czárán, T. and Bartha, S. 1993. Pattern, area and diversity: the importance of spatial scale in species assemblages. Abstracta Botanica 17:37–51.
Ricotta, C. 2006. Towards a complex, plural and dynamic approach to diversity: rejoinder to Myers and Patil, Podani, and Sarkar. Acta Biotheoretica 54: 141–146.
Ricotta, C. and Anand, M. 2006. Spatial complexity of ecological communities: Bringing the gap between probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainty measures. Ecol. Modelling 197: 59–66.
Simon, T. 2000. Guide to the Hungarian Vascular Flora. Nemzeti Tankönyvkiadó, Budapest. (In Hungarian).
Sokal, R. R. and Rohlf, F.J. 1995. Biometry: the principles and practice of statistics in biological research. 3rd edition. W. H. Freeman and Co.: New York.
Stampfli, A. 1991. Accurate determination of vegetational change in meadows by successive point quadrat analysis. Vegetatio 96: 185–194.
Thuiller, W. 2007. Climate change and the ecologist. Nature 448: 550–552.
Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araújo, M.B., Sykes, M.T. and Prentice I.C. 2005, Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. PNAS 102: 8245–8250.
Tilman, D. 1999. The ecological consequences of changes in biodiversity: a search for general principles. Ecology 80: 1455–1474.
Tilman, D. and Downing, J.A. 1994. Biodiversity and stability in grasslands. Nature 367: 363–365.
Tóthmérész, Β. and Erdei, Zs. 1992. The effect of species dominance on information theory characteristics of plant communities. Abstr. Bot. 16:43–47.
Tuba, Z., Csintalan, Zs., Nagy, Z., Szente, K., Kemény, G., Takács, Ζ., Koch, J., Badacsonyi, Α., Murakeözy, P., Palicz, G., Kóbor, Sz., Ötvös, Ε. and Bartha, S. 1998. Synphysiology: theoretical foundation and explorative field studies to a new discipline. In: Fekete G. (ed.): Frontiers in Community Ecology. Scientia, Budapest. pp. 171–196.
Várallyay, Gy. 1993. Soils in the region between the rivers Danube and Tisza (Hungary). In: Szujkó-Lacza, J. and Kováts, D. (eds.), The Flora of the Kiskunság National Park. Magyar Természettudományi Múzeum, Budapest, pp. 21–42.
Veron, S.R., Paruelo, J.M., Sala O.E. and Lauenroth, W.K. 2002. Environmental controls of primary production in agricultural systems of the Argentine Pampas. Ecosystems 5: 625–635.
Virágh, Κ. and Bartha, S. 1996. The effect of current dynamical state of a loess steppe community on its responses to disturbances. Tiscia 3: 3–13.
Virágh, Κ. and Bartha, S. 2003. Species turnover as a function of vegetation pattern. Tiscia 34: 47–56.
Walker, B.H., Ludwig, D., Holling, C.S. and Peterman, R.M. 1981. Stability of semi-arid savanna grazing systems. J. Ecol. 69: 473–498.
Walther, G-R. 2003. Plants in a warmer world. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 6: 169–185.
Zimmermann, Ν. Ε. and Kienast, F. 1999. Predictive mapping of alpine grasslands in Switzerland: species versus community approach. J. Veg Sci. 10: 469–482.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
About this article
Cite this article
Bartha, S., Campetella, G., Ruprecht, E. et al. Will interannual variability in sand grassland communities increase with climate change?. COMMUNITY ECOLOGY 9 (Suppl 1), 13–21 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1556/ComEc.9.2008.S.4
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1556/ComEc.9.2008.S.4