INTRODUCTION AND FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM

The transformations that began in Russia in the 1990s with the transition from a planned to a market economy system, affected all aspects of the country’s economic life. Earlier subsidized agriculture found itself in a difficult position (Braden et al., 2007; Ioffe et al., 2004; Ioffe, 2005; Ioffe et al., 2012; Nefedova, 2003). At the same time, the transformation of the economy has opened up opportunities for new organizational forms in agriculture (farms, agroholdingsFootnote 1), export–import operations with foreign countries, and diversification of forms of food trade.

The 2010s were characterized by a number of new factors affecting the development of the food complex: the consequences of the 2008 and 2014 economic crises, the 2014 introduction of restrictions on the import of certain types of agricultural products and food from a number of countries, the intensification of import substitution, a new round of attention on food security problems in the state political agenda, etc. (Antamoshkina and Timofeeva, 2014; Kheifets and Chernova, 2019; Matveeva and Chernova, 2016; Wegren et al., 2016).

How were all these processes expressed spatially? For the first post-Soviet decades, the answer to this question is now quite obvious. State policy was expressed mainly in the use of general incentive measures. Therefore, it was effective mainly for areas with favorable conditions for farming or close to large urban agglomerations. The question of how the food embargo and import substitution affected various Russian regions is more complex. A number of hypotheses can be put forward about the regional consequences of these events.

First, border regions should have become distinct acceptors of the ongoing changes (Baburin et al., 2019; Problemy …, 2019; Voloshenko and Fedorov, 2018). In the borderland with the EU, food products banned for import in 2014 occupied a very significant market share and, in general, were part of consumer behavior habitual for local residents (Palmowski and Fedorov 2020; Stepanova and Shlapeko 2018).

Second, the changes could have affected regions surrounding large sales markets to a greater extent. Free niches in the market here could have been successfully combined with the fact that such regions most often do not experience traditional restrictions in the development of agriculture (shortage of labor resources, deterioration of the market positions of small producers, lack of funding, etc.) (Averkieva et al., 2016).

In this context, Leningrad Oblast is interesting as a region simultaneously that is located in the zone of influence of the St. Petersburg agglomeration, one of the largest in Russia, and neighbors with EU countries (Finland and Estonia).

Despite unfavorable agro-climatic conditions, Leningrad Oblast occupies a very high position in the ranking of federal subjects in agricultural production. The region leads in egg production and has high poultry meat and milk production rates. The food industry of Leningrad Oblast provides about 4% of the country’s output. The region’s share in the volume of agricultural production in the Northwest is very impressive: 37% in 2019. The high return on investment, introduction of innovations in agriculture, and technical re-equipping of processing industries have led to significant achievements. A more detailed look at the territory, however, shows that, traditionally, the successes mainly concerned the suburban area of St. Petersburg, but not the eastern periphery (Man-surov and Zasedova, 2017).

Considering changes in the territorial and sectoral structure of agriculture and food production in Leningrad Oblast, the authors try to answer the following questions. Who are the true beneficiaries of the food embargo? Are there any new manufacturers? Did the external influence help to overcome the local context, in particular, to increase production volumes on the periphery of Leningrad Oblast?

REVIEW OF EARLIER STUDIES

The introduction of bans and restrictions on export–import food transactions is most often associated with geopolitical factors (Koch, 2021) and attempts to strengthen the country’s food security (Wegren, 2014). Many researchers agree that the food embargo has had a positive effect on food producers and a negative one on the consumer (Nefedova, 2016; Shagaida and Uzun, 2017).

When examining the food embargo, two questions are most often raised. Is production within the country that imposed the restrictions able to compensate for the losses? What takes place in the reorientation of producers who have lost their sales market?

The first question is usually considered in relation to a specific group of producers. Thus, A. Moretti’s study (2017) assesses the role of small producers in import substitution. S. Wegren’s study (2014) focuses on households.

The losses of European manufacturers, to whom the Russian sales market was closed after 2014, are estimated in (Cheptea and Gaigné, 2020). According to the authors’ calculations, due to the export ban, EU countries have lost EUR 125 mln per month. The researchers note that calculating losses is complicated by the fact that consumption is influenced by many factors. In particular, the fall in oil prices and devaluation of the Russian ruble, even if the ban were lifted, would not have brought the volume of exported food to the previous level.

Turning to the object of this study—Leningrad Oblast—we note that few articles have been devoted to its agro-industrial complex, mainly by employees of the Institute of Agrarian Economics and Rural Development of the Russian Academy of Sciences, as well as St. Petersburg Agrarian University.

The general state of agriculture in Leningrad Oblast in the post-Soviet period is considered in (Poshkus, 2013; Voprosy …, 2018). The authors describe the major trends and note the high importance of agricultural production in the region for the Northwest and its suburban type, oriented towards livestock production.

A.G. Trafimov and A.I. Kostyaev (2018) contribute to the discussion about the impact of the transition from a planned economy to a market economy on relatively large agricultural producers. The authors note that the transformations have had a significant impact on the organization of suburban agriculture. This was reflected in accelerated automation, the need to relocate arable land due to urban expansion, increased costs due to higher wages for workers to keep them at enterprises located near St. Petersburg (suburban rent), and the hiring of security organizations by more distant farms.

It is also worth highlighting studies on state support of the agro-industrial complex. They mainly relate to small businesses (Stepanova et al., 2017; Ulimbashev, 2018). The studies evaluate the effectiveness of support programs, describe the main sources of funding, and analyze the dynamics of their volumes. The authors tend to consider that the scope and volume of support for producers in Leningrad Oblast are insufficient.

The local context is studied in (Mansurov and Zasedova, 2017), which rates the municipalities of Leningrad Oblast in terms of food self-sufficiency. There have been attempts to explain intraregional differences in agricultural production. For example, the uneven distribution of state support determines the localization of dairy farming in a limited number of municipalities (Dzhabrailova and Trusova, 2017).

There have been no systematic studies on territorial differentiation in agriculture and food production, and the geography of these industries has been studied only when compiling ratings and typologies of municipalities of Leningrad Oblast in terms of food self-sufficiency and the distribution of state support.

INFORMATION BASIS OF THE RESEARCH

The authors have analyzed official data of the Federal State Statistics Service and its territorial office in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast. In addition, the authors used lists of food production enterprises and information on the volumes of shipped food products provided by the Committee for Economic Development and Investment Activity of Leningrad Oblast.

To analyze the state of food production in the region, the authors summarized fragmentary information on production volumes and raw materials and export relations, obtained from the official websites of individual food industry enterprises, as well as sectoral portals for the meat market,Footnote 2 dairy market,Footnote 3 etc.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The main role in the agriculture of Leningrad Oblast is played by dairy and meat cattle breeding, poultry farming, and vegetable growing. The territory’s specialization is not uniform. Municipalities located near St. Petersburg are characterized by suburban farming, which differs by the concentration of production in large organizations and specializes in poultry breeding and vegetable growing. The western regions, as well as Volkhovsky and Priozersksky districts, specialize in dairy and meat cattle breeding. In all other areas, agriculture is concentrated in households and, as a rule, is non-commodity-based.

In the 2010s, the territorial structure of agricultural production in the region underwent changes (Fig. 1). In 2010, the main leaders were Lomonosovsky, Kirovsky, Vyborgsky, and Tosnensky districts. They accounted for more than 50% of the total production volume. By the end of the decade, the key centers remained the same, but they changed places, associated with the state of the largest agricultural producers (more on this below). In 2018, Kirovsky district became the leader, which accounted for 30% of the total production volume due to the large-scale production of poultry and eggs.

Fig. 1.
figure 1

Organizational structure of agricultural production, 2000–2018, %: (a) milk, (b) livestock and poultry, (c) vegetables, (d) potatoes.

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The favorable environment associated with external factors, combined with local characteristics, explains other changes. Free, relatively inexpensive, but well-located land and the effect of concentration of production contributed to the development of pig breeding in Luzhsky district. Investment in the dairy industry allowed Priozersky district to become one of the leaders in terms of agricultural production. A strong increase in its volume in Lodeynopolsky and Boksitogorsky districts is only a consequence of the low base effect.

Organizational structure

The potential impact of the food embargo and import substitution significantly depends on the organizational structure of the agro-industrial complex. Agricultural organizations steadily dominate in the structure of agricultural production in Leningrad Oblast (in 2018, they accounted for 77% of the total volume; in 2010, for comparison, 72%). The share of households holding the second position is gradually decreasing (19.5% in 2018). For 2010–2018, the share of farmsteads has doubled (up to 3.5%).

In the production of certain types of products, the situation is highly differentiated. The decline in the share of households in milk production (Fig. 2a) is actually due to the completion of the rupture of local raw material ties between producers and processors, which began in the post-Soviet period. Almost all large milk processors maintain their own megafarms or have a number of large livestock farms incomparable to households in productivity. The problem of selling raw milk, coupled with a long return on investment, led to its curtailed production in households. A similar situation is observed in livestock and poultry production (Fig. 2b). The total dominance of agricultural organizations is associated with the incomparable growth rates of large organizations and households that continue to raise livestock and poultry in certain peripheral areas. The share of agroholdings in livestock and poultry production is over 70%.

Fig. 2.
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Dynamics of agricultural production in Leningrad Oblast in 2010–2018.

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Households play an important role in the volume of vegetable and potato production (Figs. 2c, 2d). Agricultural organizations dominate only in the production of greenhouse vegetables and are represented by several greenhouses in the suburban area.

Leningrad Oblast has both vertical and horizontal integration of agricultural enterprises. Integration processes in agriculture and food production mainly encompass areas closest to St. Petersburg.

The region has subdivisions of large Russian and international agroholdings (Cherkizovo, the Tkachev Agrocomplex, Idavang) and regional integrated structures (Galaktika group of companies, Detskoselsky Concern). In total, there are more than 30 agroholdings of various levels. The largest share of agroholdings is concentrated in three sectors: dairy farming and milk processing, animal husbandry and meat production, fishing and fish farming. The region is developing mainly horizontal integration: companies with similar activity profiles are merging. This form is typical of all fish farming holdings and most dairy and meat agroholdings. There are few vertically integrated companies, but the integration takes place both forward and backward. Thus, the Galaktika group of companies has assets in both dairy farming and milk processing (an example of backward integration), the Tosnensky meat processing plant includes the company Iney, which produces finished meat products (an example of forward integration). There are examples of complete integration (from field to shelf) (the Losevo group combines companies for the production of feed, breeding and keeping of cattle, milk and meat processing, marketing products in stores of its own retail network).

The most important transformation that agroholdings have undergone in recent years is loss of regionality. More and more large federal companies are coming to Leningrad Oblast, while small regional agroholdings are going bankrupt and leaving the market. In addition, it is important to note the departure of Finnish business from Leningrad Oblast. The last Finnish asset, Pit-Product, which was previously part of the Atria group of companies, was transferred to management of the Russian large agroholding Cherkizovo in 2021.

By the beginning of the 2010s, within individual sectors of the agro-industrial complex, new, post-Soviet supply and marketing ties have already developed, formed, first of all, by agroholdings. As an example, we describe in more detail the results of transformation of the dairy industry. Most of the largest enterprises in milk production and processing have existed since Soviet times. At the moment, there are three territorial forms of development of dairy enterprises. In the first variant, Leningrad Oblast plays a purely supplying role in providing raw materials for St. Petersburg factories. The Agro-Balt Plemzavod (Kingiseppsky district) and Lyuban (Tosnensky district), which supply milk to the Detskoselsky concern (settlement of Shushary, part of St. Petersburg); Plemzavod Grazhdansky (Priozersky district), which sells milk to Petmol; more than a dozen farms in Priozersky, Vyborgsky, Volkhovsky, Kingiseppsky, Slantsevsky, and Vsevolozhsky districts, the milk of which is processed at Piskarevsky Molzavod, etc. The second variant implies intraregional relations along the production–processing line. For example, the Galaktika plant (Gatchinsky district) collects milk from farms in several neighboring districts of the region. The third variant is the formation of localized production and processing centers. The development of the enterprise Losevo (Vyborgsky district), which is gaining more and more popularity, followed this path. At the moment, its own retail network has already gone beyond the boundaries of the district, and further diversification of production (meat, vegetables, berries, honey) will undoubtedly require inclusion of lands of neighboring districts in the enterprise. The Artis Group of Companies (Molochnaya Kul’tura; Volosovsky district) is also a variant for localized development. The enterprise was established on the basis of the Seltso Sovkhoz, and in 2013, a dairy plant was built there. Currently, both Losevo and Molochnaya Kul’tura occupy a significant niche in the St. Petersburg market, cooperating with the largest retail chains and having their own branded shelves. A local example of a similar type is also the Krasnoozernoe farm (Priozersky district), where milk is produced and processed and fodder is harvested within the district.

The meat industry developed according to a similar principle, where large local centers (poultry farms) continue to operate, as well as raw material zones for meat processing plants in St. Petersburg and Leningrad Oblast (Vsevolozhsky, Kirovsky, Vyborgsky, and Gatchinsky districts).

The processes described above affect mainly the central and southwestern parts of the region. The east of the region remains outside the attention of the largest agroholdings and without successful independent farms. Since 2018, the Leningrad Hectare program has been operating in the region,Footnote 4 however, it is still difficult to judge its results in the peripheral areas of the region.

Livestock

Livestock, of course, remains the main sector of agricultural specialization in Leningrad Oblast. In 2018, it accounted for 72% of agricultural output. The increase in the indicator is due to growth in the production of all types of livestock products, but the largest contribution comes from the egg production, where, as noted above, Leningrad Oblast is one of the all-Russian leaders.

The main centers for the production of livestock products are the districts bordering St. Petersburg, the main specialization of which is the egg and poultry meat production: Kirovsky, Gatchinsky, and Vyborgsky (Figs. 3, 4). They account for 62% of the total livestock production in the region. Kirovsky district has been a leader of production since 2012 (about 40% of production). Until 2012, the first positions were occupied by Lomonosovsky district, but since 2011, the production volumes there began to decline. This is due to the activity of large poultry companies located in these areas. The Severnaya poultry farm (Kirovsky district)—the largest chicken meat producer in Leningrad Oblast (67% of poultry meat in the region)—since 2015 has belonged to the Thai agroholding Charoen Pokphand Foods and in addition to the main site in Sinyavino began to actively develop the Mginskoe, Lomonosovskoe, and Voyskovitsy production zones. In Lomonosovsky district, on the other hand, the main poultry enterprise, the Russko-Vysotskaya poultry farm, went into bankruptcy in the early 2010s, which caused a drop in the indicators. Despite significant changes in production volumes in individual regions, the total volume of chicken meat production in Leningrad Oblast was virtually unchanged throughout the entire period under consideration. A significant volume of investment in the sector and its technical modernization have allowed the poultry industry to maintain a high competitive position against the background of other Russian regions.

Fig. 3.
figure 3

Dynamics of egg production in Leningrad Oblast in 2010–2018.

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Fig. 4.
figure 4

Dynamics of production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in Leningrad Oblast in 2010–2018.

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In egg production, the main leaders were and remain Kirovsky, Vyborgsky, and Gatchinsky districts (in 2018, they accounted for 98% of egg production) (Fig. 3). The largest producers of chicken eggs in the Northwest—Roskar and the Sinyavino poultry farm—are located in Kirovsky and Vyborgsky districts. The modernization in 2008–2011 at the Sinyavino poultry farm allowed an increase in its capacity, which brought Kirovsky district to a leading position. The Oredezh poultry farm is located in Gatchinsky district.

Significant shifts have taken place in pig breeding. Since 2013, Luzhsky district has become the second most important pig breeding center after Tosnensky district. The production gap between these districts, however, is large: 6.3 times. The first to enter the territory of Luzhsky district was the Pulkovsky group of companies, which also has pig-breeding assets in Tosnensky district of Leningrad Oblast and Krestetsky district of Novgorod Oblast. After the commissioning of the pig-breeding complex, the volume of pork production in the region increased 6 times. In 2018, the Danish company Idavang also began construction of a large pig farm in Luzhsky district.

Major changes in the 2010s in the geography of the dairy industry were not observed; however, production volumes increased significantly (Fig. 5). This industry is not as strongly localized as, e.g., egg production, and a number of districts in the region, with the exception of the Far East, demonstrate similar milk production volumes. The region hosts companies of the regional level that produce raw milk and dairy products: the group of companies TerraNova, Galaktika, Losevo, Artis.

Fig. 5.
figure 5

Dynamics of milk production in Leningrad Oblast in 2010–2018.

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Priozersky district, which ranks second in the region in milk production and demonstrated growth in 2010–2018, stands out in significant changes, by almost a third. In the second half of the 2010s, milk production at the Grazhdansky breeding plant was actively developing. This, as in other similar cases, was caused by an increase in demand for raw milk at the head enterprise—the Petmol plant in St. Petersburg. In 2014, the Petrovsky pedigree plant also appeared in Priozersky district, which is now one of the ten largest milk producers in the region.

On the milk map of Leningrad Oblast in the 2010s, other large new dairy farms appeared. For example, since 2015, a new dairy farm has been introduced and is constantly expanding at the Novoladozhsky breeding plant (Volkhovsky district). Now, the enterprise is one of the five leaders in Leningrad Oblast. Thus, the second ring of suburban districts of St. Petersburg began to grow the most noticeably in milk production. At the same time, the territories closest to the city have no significant land reserves, including those optimal in terms of cost, and specialize in other sectors, which prevents dairy farms from forming their own fodder base.

Crop production

In crop production volume, the indicators for Leningrad Oblast are small. It has the greatest weight in vegetable production (due to the suburban type of economy near St. Petersburg). In the grain crop and potato production, the region occupies only 57th and 39th place among Russian regions, respectively, but in the Northwestern Federal District, it is one of the leaders.

Vsevolozhsky, Lomonosovsky, and Tosnensky districts are major producers of crop products in the region. Cereal production is concentrated in Volosovsky, Luzhky, and Gatchinsky districts.

The leader in Leningrad Oblast in crop production has remained unchanged for a long time: Vsevolozhsksky district, which accounts for more than a third of all production. The main enterprise of the region is Vyborzhets agricultural company, which produces vegetables and herbs in greenhouses. In 2018, the company significantly increased production volumes by commissioning new greenhouse complexes. In addition, in the second half of the 2010s, the company has rapidly diversified its product range. This success is due, among other things, to the ban in 2014 on the import of certain types of agricultural raw materials and food from a number of countries. In addition to reducing competition in the market, this has resulted in a colossal increase in federal and regional support in the framework of the import substitution policy.

A significant change in crop production can be called the growth of the gross grain crop harvest. In the 2000s, the sown area expanded (1.4 times), and the yield and gross harvest increased (by 1.6 and 2.2 times, respectively). Such processes are linked with the development of animal husbandry in the region and an increase in its forage base.

However, the potato production for the period under review decreased by 1.3 times. This has been observed since the mid-1990s, but in the last decade, the rate of decline has slowed and the production volume is reaching a constant level, while the region is maintaining self-sufficiency. This trend is typical of not only Leningrad Oblast, but also the country as a whole. The severest decline is experienced by households, which, as noted above, are the main producers of this product.

Food production

For the region surrounding the second most populous city in the country, the position of the food industry is rather modest. Nevertheless, the sector is represented both by giant enterprises that have existed since the Soviet era (e.g., the Galaktika dairy plant in Gatchina, founded in 1948), and by new factories with significant export potential created in the 2000s with the participation of foreign investors (e.g., the Philip Morris Izhora tobacco factory in Lomonosovsky district, which exports products to other Russian regions, neighboring countries, Japan, Serbia, etc.). The volume of food production in Leningrad Oblast in the years under consideration increased 2.9 times (from RUB 3.8 bln to 10.8 bln).

The largest production facilities are concentrated in Vsevolozhsky, Lomonosovsky, Gatchinsky, and Kirovsky districts (more than 80% of total food production). Vsevolozhsky district hosts the Vsevolozhsky meat processing plant, which is part of the Samson group of companies. Lomonosovsky district specializes in tobacco products (Philip Morris Izhora, Kres Neva), tea and coffee packaging (Jacobs Dow Egberts Rus), and confectionery production (mostly small enterprises). One of the largest milk processing companies, Galaktika, is located in Gatchinsky district. Poultry farms and Lyubimy Krai, an enterprise for confectionery production, are concentrated in Kirovsky district. However, the listed factories appeared prior to the 2010s.

Throughout the entire period under review, there was a slight increase in the production of meat and meat products due to an increase in the raw materials base (Table 1). At the same time, sausage production did not increase. This can largely be attributed to both a decrease in demand due to a drop in people’s incomes during the crisis years and the lack of free market niches, even in the face of a reduction in imports at the expense of countries placed under the food embargo. The market is mainly occupied by larger enterprises of the federal level: Moscow Oblast’s Cherkizovo, Moscow’s Ostankino and Dymov, as well as the Velikoluksky meat processing plant from the neighboring Pskov Oblast.

Table 1.   Production of certain types of food products in Leningrad Oblast in 2010 and 2019
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With an increase in the raw materials base, the production volume of dairy products also changed. Cheese production increased by 3.8 times, whereas the production of butter and whole milk products decreased. The growth in cheese production was largely caused by the 2014 food embargo, as well as increased government support. However, compared to the leading regions in production of these products in Russia (Altai Krai; Moscow, Bryansk, Belgorod, and Voronezh oblasts; and many others), the volume still remained insignificant. In addition, by the end of the 2010s competition in the domestic market has seriously increased, where new brands of the federal level have appeared, and on the part of Belarusian products, which flooded the Russian food market even more after 2014.

Cheese production centers are currently concentrated in Gatchina, Luga, Vyborg, and Priozersk. In 2014–2018 production of cheeses was launched by the Losevo company (Vyborgsky district) and the Priozersky dairy plant (Priozersky district). The Michelangelo company (Gatchinsky district) launched many new varieties of cheese on the market. They are mainly supplied to the regional market. Its own powerful raw materials base, as well as supplies from neighboring regions (Vologda and Pskov oblasts), allowed an increase in production volumes in a short time. However, in contrast to many regions, including neighboring ones (Pskov Oblast), it was impossible to nurture federal level brands in cheese production in Leningrad Oblast.

There has been a significant increase in confectionery production, provided mainly by one enterprise, Lyubimy Krai (Kirovsky district). The fairly large enterprise Veresk is located in Vyborgsky district. These companies supply their products not only to retail chains in the region, but also outside it. A significant number of companies are concentrated in Lomonosovsky district, but their production volumes are small. New large centers in confectionery production have not appeared in the last decade.

There was a significant decline in the production of bread and bakery products. The reason for this was, first, an increase in people’s cash incomes before the 2014 crisis (at the same time, there is a decrease in the consumption of bread and bread products, and the consumption of more expensive products—vegetables, meat, cheeses, etc.), and secondly, an expansion networks of large retailers in the settlements of Leningrad Oblast. As a rule, federal retail chains (Magnit, Pyaterochka, Dixy, etc.) cooperate with large bread suppliers. For Leningrad Oblast, these are the Fazer and Karavai companies, located in St. Petersburg. In the region itself, the main bread producer is the Petrokhleb Group of Companies, which combines the bakeries of Volosovsky, Tikhvinsky, Priozersky, Gatchinsky, Volkhovsky, Kingiseppsky, and Luzhsky districts and produces about 90% of all products. The traditional sales market for local bread producers was small rural stores, the number of which is decreasing due to the arrival of large retailers, since they are unable to compete with them either in range of products or pricing policy. As a result, bread production by local (district) factories has also decreased.

The 2010s were marked by an annual increase in the production of fish and fish products. Both the catch of fish and their breeding in closed reservoirs increased. The bulk of production is caught in the Baltic Sea: in 2018, the share of the coastal catch in the total catch was 74%, and it continued to increase. Large fishing companies are located in the Kingiseppsky district, the westernmost in Leningrad Oblast. These are the Petrotral and Petrotral 2 companies. They account for 88% of the coastal catch and 65% of the total catch (2018). Fish farming is poorly developed, but it is increasing annually. As a rule, these are small companies in Vyborgsky, Priozersky, and Podporozhsky districts. The output of finished marketable products—processed fish and canned fish—is increasing. The main manufacturer is Baltiyskiy Bereg Trading House (39% of production), whose production sites are located in Lomonosovsky and Vsevolozhsky districts. In the processing and packaging of finished fish, major producers are also the Petrotral 2 and Novoladozhskaya Rybnaya companies (Volkhovsky district).

On a qualitative level, the growth of so-called farm production can be noted, but it is difficult to quantify it. Successful farmers often register their enterprise as a limited liability company, falling into the category of agricultural enterprises in the statistics. It is worth emphasizing that in the second half of the 2010s, more and more expensive and high-quality craft products (especially cheese and other dairy products), intended for a narrow circle of consumers, began to appear.

Thus, the territorial structure of the food industry in the 2010s was supplemented by a small number of enterprises, mainly for milk processing, facilitated by market conditions. The growth of the raw materials base led to an increase in the production of meat products. However, deep processing of meat in Leningrad Oblast has not changed, which is associated with the low competitiveness of local meat processing plants in comparison with federal giants. This is also confirmed by the purchase of Finfnish Atria by one of them—Cherkizovo holding. Unable to weather competition with St. Petersburg producers, the bread production volume is declining. Lastly, the geographical location of the region contributes to the sustainable growth in fish production, but the main centers in this industry remain unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2014 food embargo opened up colossal free niches in the market of St. Petersburg, with its population of 5 mln, where, in particular, Finnish products (cheese and other dairy products, sausages, etc.) previously accounted for a significant share. This, of course, has become a stimulus for production in the region. Overcoming difficulties caused by the embargo (e.g., in the supply of seeds and feed additives), many local producers have increased their production volume and expanded the range of products. However, the beneficiaries were mainly the already existing large market players. New small producers also appeared, but it is difficult to say exactly what their emergence is related to: an increase in demand for environmentally friendly farm products in large agglomerations or with the embargo.

St. Petersburg proper and its nearest suburbs took advantage of the new opportunities. On the periphery of Leningrad Oblast, hardly any changes were noted. In the territorial structure of agriculture in the 2010s, the trend towards increased dependence on the state by the largest enterprises became more and more distinct. There have been no fundamental changes in the sectoral structure, but in absolute terms, vegetable production is growing strongly, and the production of meat and meat semifinished products, fish, and baked goods is increasing.

The impact of the food embargo and import substitution could have been more extensive, but this did not happen for a number of reasons.

First, the period after 2014 was characterized by a drop in the purchasing power of the population, and, accordingly, a decrease in demand. Second, the raw materials base in the region could not cover the needs of growing industries. Third, the growth in milk production in Leningrad Oblast was largely due to an increase in demand for raw materials at the largest dairies in St. Petersburg, not in Leningrad Oblast. Fourth, the increase in production in the most promising niches also took place within the city, not in the surrounding region (e.g., the market share of the Neva Milk Group (Nevsky Syry) in cheese production was growing rapidly). Finally, much faster than any territorial or structural shifts in the food industry of Leningrad Oblast could have occurred, the market was filled with goods from neighboring regions (e.g., in terms of meat products—the Velikoluksky meat processing plant of Pskov Oblast) and imported products (due to its seaside location and availability of a port).