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Experimental Estimation of the Matrix of Import Capital Cost Coefficients in the Dynamic Leontief Model for the Belarusian Economy in 2016–2020

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Abstract

The article is devoted to the assessment of the matrix of import capital cost coefficients in the framework of the dynamic input–output model for the economy of the Republic of Belarus according to the data for 2016–2020. The assessment was carried out on the basis of the capital intensity of gross output and the technological structure of fixed capital in 19 integrated sectors of the Belarusian economy, the share of the import component in gross fixed capital formation and the average depreciation rate by the type of capital goods. As one of the applied results of the obtained matrix, the article presents calculations of the import intensity of domestic products for each of the industries—not only in terms of current costs, but also the capital component. The article also considers the directions for improving the results obtained, including for the tasks of macroeconomic forecasting.

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Notes

  1. The matrix is also called the capital matrix or the investment matrix. Its estimate for the United States was first published in the 1950s [2]. From the point of view of the theoretical views of those years, the logic of the model is quite reasonable: a number of well-known single-product models directly linked the amount of induced investment with national income [3–7].

  2. To eliminate the problem, a number of mathematical methods have been proposed for inverting the singular matrix of incremental capital intensity [15].

  3. System of input–output tables. https://www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/realny-sector-ekonomiki/natsionalnye-scheta/sistema-tablits-zatraty-vypusk/.

  4. Availability of fixed assets at historical cost at the end of the year. http://dataportal.belstat.gov.by/Indicators/Preview?key=231589.

  5. Index of physical volume of fixed assets at historical cost in constant prices, % to the previous year. http://dataportal.belstat.gov.by/Indicators/Preview?key=175053.

  6. Agriculture of the Republic of Belarus, 2022. www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/realny-sector-ekonomiki/-selskoe-hozyaistvo/selskoe-khozyaystvo/statisticheskie-izdaniya/-index_57446/.

  7. The specific structure of fixed assets of commercial organizations in the Russian Federation at the end of the year. https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/14304.

  8. Industry of the Republic of Belarus, 2022. www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/realny-sector-ekonomiki/-promyshlennost/publikatsii_13/index_55945/.

  9. Transport in the Republic of Belarus, 2022. https://www.belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/publications/izdania/public_brochures/index_52718/.

  10. Decree of the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus of September 30, 2011 no. 161 On the Establishment of Standard Service Life of Fixed Assets and the Invalidation of Some Resolutions of the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus. https://pravo.by/document/?guid=3961&p0=W21124359.

  11. As a result, the coefficients in such a matrix are given per ruble of final demand, with the exception of the demand for capital goods to compensate for the depreciation of fixed capital.

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  1. Belarusian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics, 220013, Minsk, Republic of Belarus

    V. A. Parkhimenko

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Translated by S. Avodkova

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Parkhimenko, V.A. Experimental Estimation of the Matrix of Import Capital Cost Coefficients in the Dynamic Leontief Model for the Belarusian Economy in 2016–2020. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 34, 543–553 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723040123

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