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Problems of Transition to Innovative-Continuous Development of the Russian Economy in Conditions of Forced Import Substitution

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Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract—

The article presents the results of the first stage of developing the concept of transition to innovative development of the domestic economy in the context of sanctions restrictions imposed on it. It is shown that such restrictions, in addition to the negative impact, also open up the possibility of generating a significant amount of additional demand for domestic engineering products and investment equipment. A preliminary assessment was made of the scale and structure of such potential demand, taking into account the opening of parallel import channels and the development of foreign trade relations with friendly and neutral countries. In addition, the paper presents a methodological scheme for the formation of a new structure of the investment complex, capable of ensuring the realization of this potential through developing import substitution based on domestic technologies.

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Notes

  1. In 2021, the cost of foreign machinery and equipment supplied to the Russian Federation amounted to $144 billion, while the export of the corresponding types of products was 4.4 times less at $32.7 billion.

  2. Customs statistics of foreign trade of the Russian Federation 2021. Bulletin of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation. 2011–2022. http://stat.customs.gov.ru/documents.

  3. Order of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation dated April 19, 2022 no. 1532 On Approval of the List of Goods (groups of goods) in Respect of which the Provisions of subparagraph 6 of Article 1359 and Article 1487 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation do not apply, subject to the Introduction of these Goods (groups of goods) into Circulation outside the Territory of the Russian Federation by right holders (patent holders), as well as with their Consent. http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202205060001.

  4. Parallel import is the import of goods without the consent of the right holder; goods of companies that have suspended their activities in Russia are allowed to be included in it.

  5. Nikolaev M., Nikolaeva O. Assessment of parallel imports and their impact, ACRA Analytical Bulletin 06, June 22, 2022. https://www.acra-ratings.ru/research/2689/.

  6. Gusev M.S. Russia’s foreign trade in 2022 Import recovery and export decline, Speech at the CDU at a meeting of the Economic Management Section on the topic: “Changes in Foreign Trade Flows in the World: Problems and Solutions,” October 27, 2022. https://ecfor.ru/publication/izmeneniya-vneshnetorgovyh-potokov-v-mire/.

  7. The volume of parallel imports exceeded $20 billion // Kommersant dated December 22, 2019. http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5733787.

  8. Yasinsky V.A. Prospects for the development of foreign economic relations between Russia and China, Presentation at the seminar “Scenario for the structural transformation of the Russian economy,” February 9, 2023 .

  9. Foreign trade of the Russian Federation. Official document of the FCS, March 13, 2023. https://customs.gov.ru/press/federal/document/385906.

  10. According to [5], technology, unlike human capital, has the property of “inexhaustibility” or “noncompetitive” consumption; the use of a particular technology by one firm does not limit the capabilities of other firms. The property of “inexhaustibility” brings “technologies” closer to public goods, which implies the presence of “externalities” in their production.

  11. In [10], it is assumed that the basis for solving the problem of launching the mechanism of economic growth is the formation and evolution of a model for catching up existing technologies by enterprises in the country. In our opinion, this is quite an adequate tool for the initial period of activation of the investment and innovation process.

  12. On the functioning of the NVTK, see, for example, I. E. Frolov, “Evaluation of the development of the Russian high-tech complex in conditions of low inflation and limited state support,” Probl. Prognozirovaniya, No. 4, 3–15 (2019). https://ecfor.ru/publication/tendentsii-razvitiya-rossijskogo-opk-v-2011-2017-gg/.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117418, Moscow, Russia

    I. E. Frolov, V. N. Borisov & N. A. Ganichev

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  1. I. E. Frolov
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  2. V. N. Borisov
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  3. N. A. Ganichev
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Correspondence to N. A. Ganichev.

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Frolov, I., Borisov, V. & Ganichev, N. Problems of Transition to Innovative-Continuous Development of the Russian Economy in Conditions of Forced Import Substitution. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 34, 473–483 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723040068

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