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Russian Hydropower under the Global Climate Change

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Abstract

The influence of the climate change in Russia on the operation of hydroelectric power plants during the 21st century is considered. For obtaining quantitative assessments, the results yielded by global climatic models for river runoff were subjected to ensemble averaging. In addition to the standard RCP climatic scenarios, the MPEI scenario is considered, the fundamental distinctive feature of which is that the most likely development trajectories are selected. It is found that the choice of a scenario has an essential effect on both the qualitative pattern of river runoff changes over the territory and on the quantitative characteristics of this process. An integral assessment for the change in the hydroelectric power plant outputs due to climate change is made.

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Notes

  1. The RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios are the set of scenarios that are presently suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for estimating the climatic conditions of the future [1]. In our opinion, the RCP 4.5 scenario is most closely consistent with the presently observed tendencies.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Research University Moscow Power Engineering Institute, 111250, Moscow, Russia

    V. V. Klimenko & E. V. Fedotova

Authors
  1. V. V. Klimenko
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  2. E. V. Fedotova
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Correspondence to V. V. Klimenko.

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Translated by V. Filatov

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Klimenko, V.V., Fedotova, E.V. Russian Hydropower under the Global Climate Change. Dokl. Phys. 64, 39–43 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028335819010051

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