Methodology, results, and problems of forecasting earthquakes

Abstract

In densely populated large cities and complex engineering environments, violation of the standard functioning procedures of which is fraught with many negative consequences, floods, volcanic eruptions, natural fires, earthquakes, and tsunamis caused by earthquakes are factors of social and economic instability. In addition, all the above natural disasters are hard to predict and erroneous predictions sometimes lead to damages comparable in scale. Nevertheless, the prediction methods are being improved; in particular, substantial progress has been reached in recent decades in midterm forecasting earthquakes, and this success would have been impossible without the contribution of Russian scientists to the development of these studies. It becomes obvious from the paper published below and heard at a meeting of the RAS Presidium that the available knowledge and approaches allow us to establish the time interval, the localization zone, and the magnitude of an anticipated earthquake and to determine the probability of its occurrence. This information is designed to neutralize at least part of the negative consequences of the seismic activity of our planet.