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Long-Term Earthquake Prediction (LTEP) for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc, June 2019 to May 2024; Properties of Preceding Seismicity from January 2017 to May 2019. The Development and Practical Application of the LTEP Method

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Abstract

This paper is concerned with results from ongoing work using the method of long-term earthquake prediction (LTEP) for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc based on the seismic gap and seismic cycle patterns. We highlight the most important lines of research in the LTEP method during the preceding decade. A long-term forecast is provided using the basic method for the next 5 years, June 2019 through May 2024, for the most active part of the earthquake-generating zone in the region. The 20 segments of that zone have forecasts for the next 5 years, including the phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of low-magnitude earthquakes (А10), the magnitudes of moderate-size earthquakes that are expected to occur with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes and probabilities of great (М ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. This study continues the well-known work of S.A. Fedotov by examining space–time features of the regional seismic process for the period beginning 2017, including the great Near Islands (Aleutian) earthquake of July 17, 2017, M = 7.7. The results, as obtained here, corroborate a close relationship between the seismic process occurring in the segments that pose the highest earthquake hazard according to the LTEP and the great earthquakes in the region itself and in the adjacent seismic areas, as well as emphasizing a very high earthquake hazard for several areas at the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc; Thus it is necessary to continue and expand the ongoing work in earthquake strengthening and enhancing the level of seismic safety in those areas under the highest hazard, including the administrative center of Kamchatka Krai, the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.

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Notes

  1. The line is not strictly normal to the strike of the relevant segment of the earthquake-generating zone, as can be seen from Fig. 2 where projection normality is retained, as far as is possible. Nevertheless, one should remember the considerable variation in depth, the location uncertainty, as well as the fact that the structures that are probably faults, which control the possible relationships between shallow and deep events are likely to be rather wide.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We express our deep gratitude to all participants in the studies in long-term earthquake prediction, as well as the teams of seismologists at the Pacific Seismological Expedition of the Institute of Physics of the Earth, USSR Academy of Sciences, at the Institute of Volcanology (later the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology), Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, KOMSP, Kamchatka Branch of the Federal Research Center of the RAS Geophysical Survey whose data were used for prediction in 1965–2019.

Funding

These studies were in part supported by the Dalniy Vostok program of the RAS Far East Branch, project no. 18-5-002.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bulvar Piipa, 9, 683006, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia

    S. A. Fedotov & A. V. Solomatin

  2. Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, B. Gruzinskaya, 10, str. 1, 123242, Moscow, Russia

    S. A. Fedotov

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  1. S. A. Fedotov
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Correspondence to A. V. Solomatin.

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Translated by A. Petrosyan

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Fedotov, S.A., Solomatin, A.V. Long-Term Earthquake Prediction (LTEP) for the Kuril–Kamchatka island arc, June 2019 to May 2024; Properties of Preceding Seismicity from January 2017 to May 2019. The Development and Practical Application of the LTEP Method. J. Volcanolog. Seismol. 13, 349–362 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046319060022

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