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Analyzing the Variation of Lyapunov Exponents of the Time Derivatives of the Horizontal Geomagnetic Field during the Geomagnetic Storm

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Abstract

The geomagnetic disturbance associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) of September 8, 2017 was evaluated using the time derivatives of the horizontal geomagnetic field which are proxy to geomagnetically induced current (GIC) risks at different latitudes. The time derivatives of the horizontal geomagnetic (dH/dt) were acquired from data of the INTERMAGNET (International Real-Time Magnetic Observatory Network). The Lyapunov exponent (LE), was evaluated using deterministic methods of nonlinear dynamics techniques based on estimated time delay (τ) and embedding dimension (m) from average mutual information (AMI) and false nearest neighbor (FNN) algorithms respectively. The positive values of the Lyapunov exponent for stations with labels ABK, HAD, HBK, HER, LER, LYC, MBO, NUR, SOD,TAM and UPS are 0.097, 0.053, 0.077, 0.048, 0.067, 0.069, 0.00001, 0.069, 0.085, 0.050 and 0.071 respectively, is a strong indicator of the presence of chaos in the dynamics of the associated geomagnetic disturbance. The highest value of Lyapunov exponents is observed at ABK while Mbour exhibits the lowest value of Lyapunov exponents. Observed variations in LE confirm a strong impact on the high latitudes, which implies that the intensity and the ring current distribution, auroral electrojets, and field-aligned currents (FACs) have an effect on the time derivatives of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic fields. These results showed that chaotic features are clearly present in the time derivatives of the horizontal geomagnetic field and the techniques of nonlinear dynamics can therefore be employed to understand and predict the dH/dt.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors wish to acknowledge INTERMAGNET for the provision of geomagnetic field data (http://www.intermagnet.org/data) and OMINIWEB (http://www.omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov) staff for providing Vx, Bz, SYM-H, Fp, AU, and AL indices data for the study of nonlinear time series of the time derivatives of the horizontal geomagnetic field during storm time variation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, Tai Solarin University of Education, Ijebu ode, Ijagun, Nigeria

    E. O. Falayi

  2. Department of Physics, Adeniran Ogunsanya College of Education, Ijanikin, Nigeria

    A. S. Ajose

  3. Department of Physics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria

    T. O. Roy-Layinde

  4. Federal College of Forestry, P.M.B. 5087, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria

    A. T. Adewole

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  1. E. O. Falayi
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  2. A. S. Ajose
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  4. A. T. Adewole
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Correspondence to E. O. Falayi, A. S. Ajose, T. O. Roy-Layinde or A. T. Adewole.

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Falayi, E.O., Ajose, A.S., Roy-Layinde, T.O. et al. Analyzing the Variation of Lyapunov Exponents of the Time Derivatives of the Horizontal Geomagnetic Field during the Geomagnetic Storm. Geomagn. Aeron. 61, 1221–1233 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793221080065

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