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Forecast of the Quasi-Stationary and Transient Solar Wind Streams Based on Solar Observations in 2010

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Abstract

The results of the forecasting of quasi-stationary and transient solar wind streams velocity for a period from May to December 2010 are presented. The velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind streams on the near-Earth orbit was calculated with the empiric model based on an analysis of solar images obtained in the extreme ultraviolet. The velocity and arrival time of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections were predicted with the Drag-Based Model. The results of the forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind streams were used as a parameter of the interplanetary medium through which the transient streams propagate and with which they interact. For the period of May–December 2010, 94 coronal mass ejections were selected from the databases, which were updated in near-real time. Analysis of the forecast results has shown that 67% of the selected interplanetary coronal mass ejections had a predicted velocity of less than 400 km/s, and 96% of them are associated with a quiet geomagnetic conditions (Dst > –30 nT). The forecast of quasi-stationary solar wind streams is improved by the addition of the prediction of interplanetary coronal mass ejections. For the period from May to December 2010, the standard deviation between the solar wind stream velocities measured on the ACE spacecraft and the predicted values, which take into account both quasi-stationary and transient streams, is 82 km/s, and the correlation coefficient is 0.6.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors are grateful to the research teams of the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and Advanced Composition Explorer projects and to the compilers of the CACTus, SEEDS, and Solar Demon databases for access to the data.

Funding

The study was performed at the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics of Moscow State University and supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation, grant no. 16-17-00098.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    Yu. S. Shugay & K. B. Kaportseva

  2. Faculty of Physics, Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    K. B. Kaportseva

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  1. Yu. S. Shugay
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  2. K. B. Kaportseva
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Correspondence to Yu. S. Shugay or K. B. Kaportseva.

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Translated by M. Samokhina

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Shugay, Y.S., Kaportseva, K.B. Forecast of the Quasi-Stationary and Transient Solar Wind Streams Based on Solar Observations in 2010. Geomagn. Aeron. 61, 158–168 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1134/S001679322102016X

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S001679322102016X

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