Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Does geomagnetic storm magnitude depend on solar flare importance?

  • Published:
Cosmic Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In order to predict space weather effects, solar flares are often used as precursors of magnetic storms on the Earth. In particular, possible relation between the solar flare importance and magnetic storm intensity is discussed in some papers. However, published results contradict each other. We compare the published results on the flare-storm dependence and discuss possible causes of this disagreement: (1) different intervals of observation, (2) differing statistics, and (3) different methods of identification of events and their comparison. Our analysis has shown that the fact of occurrence and the magnitude of a geomagnetic storm cannot be determined, generally, using only the solar flare importance. However, analyzing additional information on the coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with the geomagnetic storm, one can offer an algorithm for the storm magnitude prediction on the basis of flare importance.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Burton, R.K., McPherron, R.L., and Russell, C.T., An Empirical Relationship between Interplanetary Conditions and D st, J. Geophys. Res., 1975, vol. 80, pp. 4204–4214.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  2. Gonzalez, W.D., Joselyn, J.A., Kamide, Y., et al., What Is a Geomagnetic Storm?, J. Geophys. Res., 1994, vol. 99, pp. 5771–5792.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  3. Yermolaev, Yu.I. and Yermolaev, M.Yu., Statistic Study on the Geomagnetic Storm Effectiveness of Solar and Interplanetary Events, J. Adv. Space Res., 2006, vol. 37, no. 6, pp. 1175–1181.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Zhang, J., Richardson, I.G., Webb, D.F., et al., Solar and Interplanetary Sources of Major Geomagnetic Storms (D st < −100 nT) during 1996–2005, J. Geophys. Res., 2007, vol. 112, A10102. doi: 10.1029/2007JA012321

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. Yermolaev, Yu.I., Yermolaev, M.Yu., Lodkina, I.G., and Nikolaeva, N.S., Statistical Investigation of Heliospheric Conditions Resulting in Magnetic Storms, Kosm. Issled., 2007, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 3–11. [Cosmic Research, pp. 1–8].

    Google Scholar 

  6. Echer, E., Gonzalez, W.D., Tsurutani, B.T., and Gonzalez, A.L.C., Interplanetary Conditions Causing Intense Geomagnetic Storms (D st < −100 nT) during Solar Cycle 23 (1996–2006), J. Geophys. Res., 2008, vol. 113, A05221. doi: 10.1029/2007JA012744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Yermolaev, Yu.I., Nikolaeva, N.S., Lodkina, I.G., and Yermolaev, M.Yu., Relative Frequaency of Occurrence and Geoeffectiveness of Large-Scale Types of the Solar Wind, Kosm. Issled., 2009. vol. 47, no. 2, pp. 99–113 (Cosmic Research, pp. 81–94).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Miroshnichenko, L.I., Solar-Terrestrial Links, in Fizika kosmosa: malen’kaya entsiklopediya (Physics of Cosmos: A Small Encyclopedia), Syunyaev. R.A, Ed., Moscow: Sov. Entsiklopediya, 1986.

    Google Scholar 

  9. Gosling, J.T., Solar Flare Myth, J. Geophys. Res., 1993, vol. 98, p. 18937.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  10. Harrison, R.A., Coronal Magnetic Storms: A New Perspective on Flares and the “Solar Flare Myth” Debate, Solar Phys., 1996, vol. 166, p. 441.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  11. Cliver, E.W. and Hudson, H.S., CMEs: How Do the Puzzle Pieces Fit Together?, J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 2002, vol. 64, p. 231.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Harrison, R.A. and Bewsher, D., A Benchmark Event Sequence for Mass Ejection Onset Studies. A Flare Associated CME with Coronal Dimming, Ascending Pre-Flare Loops and a Transient Cool Loop, Astron. Astrophys., 2007, vol. 461, pp. 1155–1162.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Park, Y.D., Moon, Y.-J., et al., Delay Times between Geoeffective Solar Disturbances and Geomagnetic Indices, Astrophys. Space Science, 2002, vol. 279, pp. 343–354.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Ivanov, V.G. and Miletsky, E.V., Space and Time Factors of Solar Flare Geoeffectiveness, Proc. of the Climatic and Ecological Aspects of Solar Activity, Russia, St. Petersburg, 2003, p. 183.

  15. Smith, Z.K., Murtagh, W., and Smithtro, C., Relationship between Solar Wind Low-Energy Energetic Ion Enhancements and Large Geomagnetic Storms, J. Geophys. Res., 2004, vol. 109, A01110 doi: 10.1029/2003JA010044.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Yermolaev, Yu.I., Yermolaev, M.Yu., Zastenker, G.N., et al., Statistical Studies of Geomagnetic Storm Dependencies on Solar and Interplanetary Events: A Review, Planet. Space Sci., 2005, vol. 53, nos. 1–3, pp. 189–196.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Daglis, I.A., Tsurutani, B.T., Gonzalez, W.D., Kozyra, J.U., et al., Key Features of Intense Geospace Storms — A Comparative Study of a Solar Maximum and a Solar Minimum Storm, Planet. Space Sci., 2007, vol. 55, pp. 32–52.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  18. Yermolaev, Yu.I. and Yermolaev, M.Yu., Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetospheric Disturbances, 1976–2000, Kosm. Issled., 2002, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 3–16. [Cosmic Research, pp. 1–14].

    Google Scholar 

  19. Yermolaev, Yu.I., Comment on “Geoeffestiveness of Halo Coronal Mass Ejestions” by N. Goralswamy, S. Yashiro, and S. Akiyama (J. Geophys. Res., 112, A06112, doi: 10.1029/2006JA012149),” Kosm. Issled., 2008, vol. 46, no. 6, pp. 572–573. [Cosmic Research, pp. 540–541].

    Google Scholar 

  20. Shrivastava, P.K. and Singh, G.N., Influence of Coronal Mass Ejection on Geomagnetic Activity during 1988–1993, Earth, Moon and Planets, 2002, vol. 91, pp. 1–8.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  21. Yermolaev, Yu.I. and Yermolaev, M.Yu., Statistical Relations between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetic Disturbances during 2.3 Solar Cycles (1976–2000), Proc. of the Second Solar Cycle and Space Weather Euroconference, 24-29 September 2001, Vico Equense, Italy, Huguette Sawaya-Lacoste, Ed., SP-477, Noordwijk: ESA Publications Division, ISBN 92-9092-749-6, 2002, pp. 570–582.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Yermolaev, Yu.I. and Yermolaev, M.Yu., Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetospheric Disturbances, 1976–2000: 2, Kosm. Issled., 2003, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 115–119. [Cosmic Research, pp. 105–109].

    Google Scholar 

  23. Yu. I. Yermolaev and M. Yu. Yermolaev, Statistical Relationships between Solar, Interplanetary, and Geomagnetospheric Disturbances, 1976–2000: 3, Kosm. Issled., 2003, vol. 41, no. 6, pp. 573–584. [Cosmic Research, pp. 539–549].

    Google Scholar 

  24. Yadav, M.P. and Kumar, S., Solar and Interplanetary Disturbances Causing Moderate Geomagnetic Storms, Proc. 28th Intern. Cosmic Ray Conf., 2003, pp. 3655–3659.

  25. Kumar, S. and Yadav, M.P., Geoeffectiveness of Solar Features, Proc. 28th Intern. Cosmic Ray Conf., 2003, pp. 3665–3669.

  26. Howard, T.A. and Tappin, S.J., Statistical Survey of Earthbound Interplanetary Shocks, Associated Coronal Mass Ejections and Their Space Weather Consequences, Astron. Astrophys., 2005, vol. 440, no. 1, p. 373.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  27. Krajcovic, S. and Krivsky, L., Severe Geomagnetic Storms and Their Sources on the Sun, Astronomical Institutes of Czechoslovakia, Bulletin, 1982, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 47–59.

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  28. Lindsay, G.M., Russell, C.T., and Luhmann, J.G., Coronal Mass Ejection and Stream Interaction Region Characteristics and Their Potential Geomagnetic Effectiveness, J. Geophys. Res., 1995, vol. 100, pp. 16999–17013.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  29. Kahler, S.W., Sheeley, N.R.,Jr., Howard, R.A., et al., Coronal Mass Ejections and Associated X-Ray Flare Durations, Astrophys. J., 1989, vol. 344, p. 1026.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  30. Yashiro, S., Gopalswamy, N., Akiyama, S., et al., Visibility of Coronal Mass Ejections as a Function of Flare Location and Intensity, J. Geophys. Res., 2005, vol. 110, A12S05. doi: 10.1029/2005JA011151.

  31. Song, H., Yurchyshyn, V., Yang, G., et al., The Automatic Predictability of Super Geomagnetic Storms from Halo CMEs Associated with Large Solar Flares, Solar Physics, 2006, vol. 238, pp. 141–165.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  32. Valach, F., Hejda, P., and Bochnicek, J., Geoeffectiveness of XRA Events Associated with RSP II and/or RSP IV Estimated Using the Artificial Neural Network, Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica, 2007, vol. 51, no. 4, pp. 551–562. doi: 10.1007/s11200-007-0032-5.

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  33. Prokudina, V.S., Kuril’chik, V.N., Yermolaev, Yu.I., et al., Peculiarities of Long-Wave Radio Bursts from Solar Flares Preceding Strong Geomagnetic Storms, Kosm. Issled., 2009, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 17–24. [Cosmic Research, pp. 14–21].

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Profsoyuznaya ul. 84/32, Moscow, 117997, Russia

    Yu. I. Yermolaev & M. Yu. Yermolaev

Authors
  1. Yu. I. Yermolaev
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. Yu. Yermolaev
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yu. I. Yermolaev.

Additional information

Original Russian Text © Yu.I. Yermolaev, M.Yu. Yermolaev, 2009, published in Kosmicheskie Issledovaniya, 2009, Vol. 47, No. 6, pp. 495–500.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Yermolaev, Y.I., Yermolaev, M.Y. Does geomagnetic storm magnitude depend on solar flare importance?. Cosmic Res 47, 460–465 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952509060021

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952509060021

Keywords

Search

Navigation