Abstract
A three-wave epidemic cycle caused by a new influenza A virus serotype has been simulated. The mechanism of a stepwise decrease in the cohort of susceptible persons has been examined. A group of asymptomatic infected individuals and an antigen activity index (regulating the intensity of input fluxes to the groups of infected persons) are introduced into the model. The morbidity rate is additionally regulated by virulence. The model is identified according to the observations of a three-wave cycle of the Hong-Kong serotype (H3N2). The simulation results suggest a leading role of asymptomatic infected persons in replenishment of the morbid group.
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Original Russian Text © I.D. Kolesin, E.M. Zhitkova, 2015, published in Biofizika, 2015, Vol. 60, No. 3, pp. 542–546.
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Kolesin, I.D., Zhitkova, E.M. Analysis of the mechanism of a three-wave influenza A virus epidemic cycle. BIOPHYSICS 60, 439–442 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0006350915030070
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0006350915030070