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Ice Balance in the Arctic Ocean in 1979–2019 (Based on Modeling Data)

  • SEA, RIVER AND LAKE ICE
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Abstract

The results of numerical experiments using a coupled model of water and ice circulation from September 1979 to December 2019 aimed at studying the interannual variability of the ice balance in the Arctic Ocean (AO) are considered. These results have made it possible to analyze the geographical features of the processes of ice formation and melting in the AO and identify the key regions that determine the volume of ice in the ocean. It is established that most ice is formed in the waters of the Siberian seas, and the most intense melting occurs in the North European Basin, where the ice transported by the Transpolar Drift Stream through the Fram Strait enters the relatively warm water of the Greenland Sea, heated by the North Atlantic Current. The formation of the absolute minimum of ice coverage in 2012 was caused by the anomalous position of the anticyclonic hydrological cycle located much closer to the Canadian coast. This resulted in the fact that only a small part of the ice formed in the Siberian seas was involved in a weak circulation, while most of the ice in the stream of the Transpolar Drift Stream was transported through the Fram Strait to the Greenland Sea. A statistical analysis of the results of numerical experiments demonstrated that the trend towards a decrease in the volume of ice in the AO is primarily determined by global warming, and dynamic forcing exerts significant effect on local extremes. A coupled model of circulation of water and ice was used to study the variability of ice balance in the AO. The results of special numerical experiments from September 1979 to December 2019 made it possible to establish some geographical features of the processes of ice formation and melting. Statistical analysis of the results showed that the trend towards a decrease in the volume of ice in the AO is determined primarily by global warming, while local extremes are strongly influenced by dynamic forcing.

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Funding

This study was funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 18-05-60048.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia

    I. E. Frolov, M. Yu. Kulakov & K. V. Filchuk

Authors
  1. I. E. Frolov
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  2. M. Yu. Kulakov
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  3. K. V. Filchuk
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. Yu. Kulakov.

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The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Additional information

The article is dedicated to the memory of Ivan Evgenievich Frolov, an outstanding oceanographer, glaciologist, polar explorer, Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation, and Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who was director of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute for many years and initiated and headed this project, which included one of his last works.

Translated by E. Morozov

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Frolov, I.E., Kulakov, M.Y. & Filchuk, K.V. Ice Balance in the Arctic Ocean in 1979–2019 (Based on Modeling Data). Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 59 (Suppl 1), S47–S56 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823130078

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823130078

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