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A Model-Oriented System for Operational Forecasting of River Floods

  • Environmental Problems
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Abstract

This article gives the results of developing and testing a system for operational river flood forecasting, which is based on a system of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, as well as ground-observation and satellite data. This system is implemented on the basis of service-oriented architecture. A specific feature of the system is fully automated implementation of the entire modeling cycle—from loading input data to interpreting and visualizing the results and alerting the interested parties. The theoretical basis for coherent functioning of all system components is the qualimetry of models and polymodel complexes developed by the authors. The practical implementation is based on open codes and freeware. The results of testing demonstrate the potential for a wide introduction of such systems in the activities of territorial authorities and emergency services.

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Notes

  1. A Rumelhart perceptron is an artificial neural network, containing input and output layers, as well as one or more hidden layers. This network architecture was developed by David Rumelhart in 1986. The specific feature of this architecture is that training by the backpropagation algorithm involves all layers, rather than the output layer alone.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors are grateful to colleagues from the Northern Department of the Hydrometeoservice of the Russian Federation and its Vologda branch, primarily, E.N. Skripnik and I.I. Rimmer for their help in experimental studies and interested discussions of the results of the study. The help of the leaders of the development of software complexes ECOMAG and STREAM-2D, Yu.G. Motovilov and V.V. Belikov (Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences) was also invaluable.

Funding

The studies for the development of models based on an artificial neural network, the use of the multimodel approach, and experimental studies for testing the system along the Northern Dvina River were supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 17-11-01254. The study for the choice of technologies for developing web services were carried out under budget project no. 0073-2019-0004. Processing ERS data was supported by the project Speeding up Copernicus-Based Innovation in the Baltic Sea Region (BalticSatApps) under the program INTERREG Baltic Sea Region.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119178, St. Petersburg, Russia

    V. A. Zelentsov, A. M. Alabyan, I. N. Krylenko, I. Yu. Pimanov, M. R. Ponomarenko, S. A. Potryasaev, A. E. Semenov, V. A. Sobolevskii, B. V. Sokolov & R. M. Yusupov

  2. Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    A. M. Alabyan & I. N. Krylenko

  3. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333, Moscow, Russia

    A. M. Alabyan & I. N. Krylenko

Authors
  1. V. A. Zelentsov
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  2. A. M. Alabyan
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  3. I. N. Krylenko
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  4. I. Yu. Pimanov
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  5. M. R. Ponomarenko
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  6. S. A. Potryasaev
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  7. A. E. Semenov
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  8. V. A. Sobolevskii
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  9. B. V. Sokolov
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  10. R. M. Yusupov
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to V. A. Zelentsov, A. M. Alabyan, I. N. Krylenko, I. Yu. Pimanov, M. R. Ponomarenko, S. A. Potryasaev, A. E. Semenov, V. A. Sobolevskii, B. V. Sokolov or R. M. Yusupov.

Additional information

Translated by G. Krichevets

Vyacheslav Alekseevich Zelentsov, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), is Chief Researcher of the St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SPIIRAS). Andrei Mikhailovich Alabyan, Cand. Sci. (Geogr.), is an Associate Professor in the Department of Land Hydrology, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University and a Leading Researcher of the RAS Water Problems Institute (RAS WPI). Inna Nikolaevna Krylenko, Cand. Sci. (Geogr.), is a Senior Researcher in the Department of Land Hydrology, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University and a Senior Researcher of RAS WPI. Il’ya Yur’evich Pimanov is a Junior Researcher of SPIIRAS. Mariya Ruslanovna Ponomarenko is a Junior Researcher of SPIIRAS. Semen Aleksee-vich Potryasaev, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), is a Senior Researcher of SPIIRAS. Aleksandr Evgen’evich Semenov is a Junior Researcher of SPIIRAS. Vladislav Alekseevich Sobolevskii is a Junior Researcher of SPIIRAS. Boris Vladimirovich Sokolov, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), is Head of the Laboratory of Information Technologies in System Analysis and Modeling, SPIIRAS. RAS Corresponding Member Rafael’ Midkhatovich Yusupov is Scientific Supervisor of SPIIRAS.

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Zelentsov, V.A., Alabyan, A.M., Krylenko, I.N. et al. A Model-Oriented System for Operational Forecasting of River Floods. Her. Russ. Acad. Sci. 89, 405–417 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331619040130

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