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Interconnectedness of systemic risk in the Chinese economy: the Granger causality and CISS indicator approach

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Abstract

In this study, systemic risk in the Chinese economy between 2012 and 2023 has been investigated. The entire dataset is divided into three time windows to help comprehend the dynamics of financial markets. Deploying the tools of graph theory and Granger causality, as well as the composite indicator of systemic stress (CISS) on five financial markets including money market, bond market, equity market, foreign exchange market, and financial intermediaries, the systemic risk propagation has been analyzed among these financial markets. The results reveal that the increase in volatility in the foreign exchange market can be attributed to the rise in volatility and risk in the equity market, bond market, and financial intermediaries. Additionally, the examination of the financial markets shows significant fluctuations in the years 2015 and 2022. Consequently, examining these two periods determined that financial turbulence in the money market was the primary source of systemic risk. Moreover, it can have widespread propagation effects on other financial markets. These findings also emphasized the importance of monitoring and controlling the money market and its interactions with other parts of the financial system to reduce propagation risks.

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This research received no external funding.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

    Omid Farkhondeh Rouz

  2. Department of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i’University, Tehran, Iran

    Hossein Sohrabi Vafa

  3. Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Yibin University, Yibin, 644000, China

    Arash Sioofy Khoojine

  4. Department of Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

    Sajjad Pashay Amiri

Authors
  1. Omid Farkhondeh Rouz
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  2. Hossein Sohrabi Vafa
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  3. Arash Sioofy Khoojine
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  4. Sajjad Pashay Amiri
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Correspondence to Omid Farkhondeh Rouz.

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Appendix

Appendix

In this section, we present two key algorithms that are introduced in "Methodology" section for analyzing systemic risk in Chinese financial markets. These algorithms aid in constructing the Granger causality graph and calculating the CISS indicator.

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Farkhondeh Rouz, O., Vafa, H.S., Khoojine, A.S. et al. Interconnectedness of systemic risk in the Chinese economy: the Granger causality and CISS indicator approach. Risk Manag 26, 9 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41283-024-00142-8

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