Abstract
In this article, we explore the impact of electoral participation on electoral dynamics in Quebec. We propose a parsimonious model that considers the linguistic composition of districts and the effective electoral support for parties to explain electoral politics. In modeling these dynamics, we introduce three new concepts, namely leverage effect, push effect, and differentiation effect. Our findings show that the 2018 election represents an extension of dynamics established in 2012 and played a corrective role to those of the 2014 election. They also demonstrate that leverage effects are not effective mechanisms for ensuring electoral success.
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Notes
Trend estimates for all parties were obtained via linear regression with a simple trend variable (election year) and an intercept as explanatory factors. The full table is available upon request.
Univariate linear model. Available upon request.
The number of observations is slightly reduced because there are instances where the four major parties did not field candidates.
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Bodet, M.A., Villeneuve-Siconnelly, K. Effective support and electoral dynamics in Quebec. Fr Polit 18, 221–237 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-020-00118-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-020-00118-6