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The 2017 French presidential election: Were voters happy with their first-round vote?

  • Data, Measures and Methods
  • Published:
French Politics Aims and scope

Abstract

A “walk up” survey conducted in the city of Caen between the two rounds of the 2017 French presidential election shows that more than one elector in six would like to have changed their first-round vote. Some voters faced a dilemma between strategic and expressive voting. The analysis of their motivation reveals that both types of regrets were present: many respondents wished that they had voted more strategically, and just as many wished that they had voted less strategically. Many participants also considered that they would rather have cast a blank vote in the first round rather than choosing a particular candidate.

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Notes

  1. The authors thank Margot Calbrix, Frédéric Chantreuil, Clémence Christin, François Durand, Kevin Fourrey, Alexis Léon and Vincent Merlin for their help in conducting the field survey.

  2. No candidate for the French Presidency has ever been directly elected in the first round.

  3. Blank ballot papers, although counted separately from spoiled ballot papers since 2017, do not influence the result of the election.

  4. The low number of votes for some candidates could raise issues relating to the significance of results; but the overall trend, that potential change of voting is proportionally higher for electors of small candidates than for those of viable candidates, remains a significant finding.

  5. See for example http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf;https://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/20042017_bfmtv_lexpress_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles-vague-10.pdf.

References

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, Normandy University, UNICAEN, Esplanade de la Paix, 14000, Caen, France

    Sébastien Courtin & Isabelle Lebon

  2. Paris School of Economics and CNRS, 48 Boulevard Jourdan, 75014, Paris, France

    Jean-François Laslier

Authors
  1. Sébastien Courtin
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  2. Jean-François Laslier
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  3. Isabelle Lebon
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Isabelle Lebon.

Appendices

Appendix 1: Sample weighting

Candidates

Distribution of questionnaires

Distribution of votes in Caen

Weight

Votes

Percentage

Votes

Percentage

N. Arthaud

5

0.32

261

0.57

1.77

F. Asselineau

6

0.38

280

0.61

1.59

J. Cheminade

2

0.13

67

0.15

1.14

N. Dupont-Aignan

37

2.36

1389

3.01

1.28

F. Fillon

187

11.92

9395

20.36

1.71

B. Hamon

245

15.62

4685

10.15

0.65

J. Lassalle

7

0.45

245

0.53

1.19

M. Le Pen

31

1.98

4709

10.21

5.17

E. Macron

528

33.65

13,472

29.20

0.87

J.-L. Mélenchon

467

29.76

10,534

22.83

0.77

P. Poutou

20

1.27

547

1.19

0.93

Blank vote

34

2.17

559

1.21

0.56

Total

1569

 

46,143

  
  1. Example: In our sample, 0.32% of the questionnaires were completed by voters for N. Arthaud. As this candidate was chosen by 0.57% of the voters of Caen, each questionnaire which designates his or her as the choice of the official vote is associated with a weight equal to 1.77 (= 0.57/0.32)

Appendix 2: Per candidate analysis

Candidates

*Viable candidate

N. Arthaud (%)

F. Asselineau (%)

J. Cheminade (%)

N. Dupont-Aignan (%)

F. Fillon* (%)

B. Hamon (%)

Motivation of vote

 Expressive/expressive and strategic

100

83.33

50

83.78

79.14

91.84

 Part. expressive/no better

–

16.67

–

8.11

3.74

2.86

 Strategic/against

–

–

50

–

14.44

2.86

 Other/no response

–

–

–

8.11

2.67

2.45

Voters who would change their vote

40

33.33

50

32.43

17.65

22.45

Potential alternative vote focused toward

 Viable candidate

50

50

100

75

3.03

80

 Non-viable candidate

–

50

–

16.67

66.67

0

 Blank vote or no vote

50

–

–

8.33

30.30

20

Candidates

J. Lassalle (%)

M. Le Pen* (%)

E. Macron* (%)

J.-L. Mélenchon* (%)

P. Poutou (%)

Blank vote (%)

Motivation of vote

 Expressive/expressive and strategic

42.86

67.74

50

70.02

75

11.77

 Part. expressive/no better

–

–

5.11

1.71

–

–

 Strategic/against

–

29.03

40.91

24.84

10

2.94

 Other/no response

57.14

3.23

3.98

3.42

15

85.29

Voters who would change their vote

28.57

19.35

12.12

15.02

20

26.47

Potential alternative vote focused toward

 Viable candidate

50

50

37.5

19.72

75

55.56

 Non-viable candidate

–

16.67

43.75

45.07

–

22.22

 Blank vote or no vote

50

33.33

18.75

35.21

25

22.22

  1. Example: In our sample, 100% of N. Arthaud voters indicate that their vote corresponds to an expressive vote, and 40% of them would like to change their vote. Among those voters for N. Arthaud who would make another choice, 50% would opt for a viable candidate and 50% for a blank vote, or no vote

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Courtin, S., Laslier, JF. & Lebon, I. The 2017 French presidential election: Were voters happy with their first-round vote?. Fr Polit 16, 439–452 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-018-0070-0

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