Abstract
The samples of older people produced for medical research are affected by significant biases: under-representation of the oldest sector of the population (over 80-year-olds), individuals who are isolated, sick, and those who are not very active or affected by a decline in their cognitive performance. The analysis of the three main surveys conducted in France during the 2002, 2007, and 2012 presidential elections makes it possible to establish that the samples used in political science have similar biases. Our study demonstrates that the older people are, the stronger the selection bias affecting the composition of samples. As a result, the over-80s segment is not only significantly under-represented overall but also has all the characteristics of a statistical artifact. The samples from that age band tend to be made up of individuals who are more educated, who come from the higher socioeconomic categories, and who almost always vote, whereas this segment is in reality by far the most likely to abstain from voting. These sampling problems have become a major issue for the study of political behavior, since the over 80-year-olds now represent 10% of registered voters.
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Notes
Pew Internet & American Life Project 2009, Usage Over Time [Data file], Washington, DC. Retrieved June 17, 2009, from http://pewinternet.org/Trend-Data/Usage-Over-Time.aspx, quoted by Quinn (2010).
Until 2006, it consisted only of individuals born between 1 and 4 October, which constituted a representative sampling at 1:100 of the French population.
The sample contains 39,155 individuals in 2002, 39,121 in 2007, and 39,728 in 2012.
The weights used to correct sampling biases are not able to correct the possible effects of under-representation of old-old adults in the surveys. The weights do not take into account, in fact, the internal composition of the different age groups but only their overall weight in the sample. While they provide the weight expected for individuals over 65 as a whole, they have no impact on identifiable biases within this age group. The over 80s thus remain largely under-represented, including after recovery operations.
For the analysis of the biases related to the level of education, only the over 30 years were retained. The under 30s are in fact likely to be still studying, a fortiori when they were identified in the national census 2 years before the survey as it is the case in the INSEE databases. Not excluding them could thus distort our statistical measures.
We do not have the detailed ages for the 2007 INSEE survey and therefore are obliged to reason by age groups. But the 2002 and 2012 INSEE surveys show that voter turnout drops sharply from 82 to 83 years of age. It is therefore likely that the gap between actual participation and declared participation in samples reaches its highest levels in those aged over 82 and 83.
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Dormagen, JY., Michel, L. Do surveys accurately report voters over 80 years old?. Fr Polit 16, 195–212 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-018-0056-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-018-0056-y