Business Economics

, Volume 53, Issue 1, pp 25–36 | Cite as

Drivers of international tourism demand in Africa

  • Ogechi Adeola
  • Nathaniel Boso
  • Olaniyi EvansEmail author


Despite Africa’s potential for tourism, the continent’s tourism endowments are still largely underdeveloped and underutilized. The identification and enquiry into the drivers of international tourism demand in Africa is key to any effort to understand and explain changes in tourism demand in Africa. This study estimates a Poisson regression model to determine the key drivers of international tourism demand in 44 African countries, employing annual data over the period 1995–2015. The outcomes of the Poisson regression show that taste formation, real exchange rate, infrastructure, political stability and absence of violence, per capita income, FDI, and trade openness are significant drivers of international tourism into Africa. However, travel costs and domestic prices are not significant drivers of the decision to travel to Africa.


International tourism demand Tourism arrivals Africa Panel poisson regression 

JEL Classification

L83 D12 O55 C33 


  1. Africa Tourism Monitor. 2015. Tourism in Africa is on the rise, but has not yet reached its full potential - African Development Bank. Accessed 26 January 2017.
  2. Akinboade, Oludele A., and Lydia A. Braimoh. 2010. International tourism and economic development in South Africa: A Granger causality test. International Journal of Tourism Research 12: 149–163. doi: 10.1002/jtr.743.Google Scholar
  3. Asrin, Karimi, Faroughi Pouya, and Abdul Rahim Khalid. 2015. Modeling and Forecasting of International Tourism Demand in ASEAN Countries. American Journal of Applied Sciences 12 (7): 479.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Becken, Susanne, Andrea Carboni, Shane Vuletich, and Aaron Schiff .2008. Analysis of tourist consumption, expenditure and prices for key international visitor segments: Technical report. Lincoln University.Google Scholar
  5. Blake, Adam, Jorge Saba Arbache, M. Thea Sinclair, and Vladimir Teles. 2008. Tourism and poverty relief. Annals of Tourism Research 35: 107–126. doi: 10.1016/j.annals.2007.06.013.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cameron Colin, A. and Pravin K. Trivedi. 1998. Regression Analysis of Count Data (Econometric Society Monographs), 436. 1st Edn., Cambridge University Press, ISBN-10: 0521632013.Google Scholar
  7. Chan, Yiu-Man, Tak-Kee Hui, and Edith Yuen. 1999. Modeling the impact of sudden environmental changes on visitor arrival forecasts: The case of the gulf war. Journal of Travel Research 37: 391–394. doi: 10.1177/004728759903700409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis, George Filis, Bruno Eeckels, and Alexandros Apostolakis. 2013. Oil prices, tourism income and economic growth: A structural VAR approach for European Mediterranean countries. Tourism Management 36: 331–341. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2012.10.012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Che, Yeon-Koo B. 2004. An approach to modeling regional tourist attraction. Resource Development Market 20: 163–165.Google Scholar
  10. Chen, Rachel J.C., Peter Bloomfield, and Frederick W. Cubbage. 2008. Comparing forecasting models in tourism. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research 32 (1): 3–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Cho, Vincent. 2001. Tourism Forecasting and Its Relationship with Leading Economic Indicators. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism 25 (4): 399–420.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Choyakh, Houssine. 2008. A model of tourism demand for Tunisia: Inclusion of the tourism investment variable. Tourism Economy 14: 819–838. doi: 10.5367/000000008786440238.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Christie, Iain T, and Doreen E. Crompton. 2001. “Tourism in Africa”, Africa Region Working Paper, Series No.12, The World Bank Washington, DC.Google Scholar
  14. Christie, Iain, Iain T. Christie, Eneida Fernandes, Hannah Messerli, and Louise Twining-Ward. 2014. Tourism in Africa: Harnessing tourism for growth and improved livelihoods. World Bank Publications.Google Scholar
  15. Claveria, Oscar, and Salvador Torra. 2014. Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models. Economic Modelling 36: 220–228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Croes, Robertico R., and Manuel Vanegas Sr. 2005. An econometric study of tourist arrivals in Aruba and its implications. Tourism Management 26 (6): 879–890.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Crouch, Geoffrey. 1994a. The study of international tourism demand: A survey of practice. Journal of Travel Research 32: 41–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Crouch, Geoffrey. 1994b. The study of international tourism demand: A review of findings. Journal of Travel Research 33: 12–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Crouch, Geoffrey. 1995. A meta-analysis of tourism demand. Annas of Tourism Research 22 (1): 103–118.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. De Mello, Maria M., and Natércia Fortuna 2005. Testing alternative dynamic systems for modelling tourism demand. Tourism Economy, 11: 517–537, 509–521. doi:  10.5367/0000005775108719.
  21. Dhariwal, Richa. 2005. Tourist arrivals in India: How important are domestic disorders? Tourism Economics 11 (2): 185–205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Dritsakis, Nikolaos. 2004. Cointegration analysis of German and British tourism demand for Greece. Tourism Management 25 (1): 111–119.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Du Preez, Johann, and Stephen F. Witt. 2003. Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: An application to international tourism demand. International Journal of Forecasting 19: 435–451. doi: 10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00057-2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Durbarry, Ramesh, and M. Thea Sinclair. 2003. Market shares analysis: The case of French tourism demand. Annals Tourism Research 30: 927–941. doi: 10.1016/S0160-7383(03)00058-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Eilat, Yair, and Liran Einav. 2004. Determinants of international tourism: A three-dimensional panel data analysis. Applied Economics 36: 1315–1327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Frechtling, Douglas C. 1996. Practical Tourism Forecasting. 1st Edn., Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford, ISBN-10: 0750608773, pp, 245.Google Scholar
  27. Gonzalez, Pilar, and Paz Moral. 1995. An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain. International Journal of Forecasting 11 (2): 233–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Greene, William H. 2008. Econometric Analysis, 7th Edn., LaJolla: Granite Hill Publishers.Google Scholar
  29. Greenidge, Kevin. 2001. Forecasting tourism demand: An STM Approach. Annals of Tourism Research 28 (1): 98–112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Gujarati, Damodar N. 2003. Basic Econometrics, 4th Edn., Boston: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
  31. Guloglu, Bulent, and R. Baris. Tekin. 2012. A panel causality analysis of the relationship among research and development, innovation and economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Eurasian Economic Review 2: 32–47. doi: 10.14208/BF03353831.Google Scholar
  32. Guo, Wenbin. 2007. Inbound tourism, an empirical research based on gravity model of international trade. Tourism Tribune 22: 30–34.Google Scholar
  33. Halicioglu, Ferda. 2010. An econometric analysis of the aggregate outbound tourism demand of Turkey. Tourism Economy 16: 83–97. doi: 10.5367/000000010790872196.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Hanafiah, Mohd Hafiz Mohd, and Mohd Fauzi Mohd Harun. 2010. Tourism demand in Malaysia: A cross-sectional pool time series analysis. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance 1: 80–83. doi: 10.7763/IJTEF.2010.V1.15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Hausman, Jerry A., Bronwyn H. Hall, and Zvi Griliches. 1984. Econometric models for count data with an application to the patents-R&D relationship.Google Scholar
  36. Hu, Clark, Ming Chen, and Shiang-Lih Chen Mcchain. 2004. Forecasting in short-term planning and management for a casino buffet restaurant. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing 16: 79–98. doi: 10.1300/J073v16n02_07.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Ibrahim, Mohammed A. 2011. The determinants of international tourism demand for Egypt: Panel data evidence. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences 30: 50–58.Google Scholar
  38. Kao, Chihwa. 1999. Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics 90 (1): 1–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Kareem, Olayinka I. 2008. A panel data analysis of demand for tourism in Africa. Ibadan Journal of Social Sciences 4 (1).Google Scholar
  40. Katircioglu, Salih T. 2009. Revisiting the tourism-ledgrowth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management 30: 17–20. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2008.04.004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Kester, John G. 2003. International tourism in Africa. Tourism Economics 9: 203–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Khan, Habibullah, Rex S. Toh, and Lyndon Chua. 2005. Tourism and trade: Cointegration and granger causality tests. Journal of Travel Research 44: 171–176. doi: 10.1177/0047287505276607.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Kim, Myung-Ja, Namho Chung, and Choong-Ki Lee. 2011. The effect of perceived trust on electronic commerce: Shopping online for tourism products and services in South Korea. Tourism Management 32 (2): 256–265.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Kulendran, Nada, and Stephen F. Witt. 2001. Cointegration versus least squares regression. Annals of Tourism Research 28: 291–311. doi: 10.1016/S0160-7383(00)00031-1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Kulendran, Nada, and Stephen F. Witt. 2003. Forecasting the demand for international business tourism. Journal of Travel Research 41: 265–271. doi: 10.1177/0047287502239034.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Leiper, Neil, and Nerilee Hing. 1998. Trends in Asia-Pacific tourism in 1997–98: From optimism to uncertainty. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management 10 (7): 245–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Li, Gang, Haiyan Song, and Stephen F. Witt. 2004. Modeling tourism demand: A dynamic linear AIDS approach. Journal of Travel Research 43: 141–150.Google Scholar
  48. Li, Gang, Haiyan Song, and Stephen F. Witt. 2005. Recent developments in econometric modelling and forecasting. Journal of Travel Research 44: 82–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Lim, Christine. 1997. Review of international tourism demand models. Annals of Tourism Research 24 (4): 835–849.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Lim, Christine. 1999. A meta-analytic review of international tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research 37: 407–428.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Lim, Christine. 2004. The major determinants of Korean outbound travel to Australia. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 64 (3–4): 477–485.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Lim, Christine, and Michael McAleer. 2001. Forecasting tourist arrivals. Annals Tourism Research 28: 965–977. doi: 10.1016/S0160-7383(01)00006-8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Lim, Christine, and Michael McAleer. 2008. Analysing seasonal changes in New Zealand’s largest inbound market. Tourism Recreation Research 33: 83–91. doi: 10.1080/02508281.2008.11081292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Makridakis, Spyros, Michele Hibon, and Claus Moser. 1979. Accuracy of forecasting: An empirical investigation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A 142: 97–145. doi: 10.2307/2345077.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Makridakis, Spyros, Steven C. Wheelwright, and Rob J. Hyndman. 1998. Forecasting, methods and applications, 923. 2nd Edn., Wiley, New York, ISBN-10: 047108610X.Google Scholar
  56. Mangion, Marie-Louise, Ramesh Durbarry, and M. Thea Sinclair. 2005. Tourism Competitiveness: Price and quality. Tourism Economics 11 (1): 45–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Massidda, Carla, and Paolo Mattana. 2013. A SVECM analysis of the relationship between international tourism arrivals, GDP and trade in Italy. Journal of Travel Research 52 (1): 93–105.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Morley, Clive L. 1998. A dynamic international demand model. Annals of Tourism Research 25 (1): 70–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Muchapondwa, Edwin, and Obert Pimhidzai. 2011. Modelling international tourism demand for Zimbabwe. International Journal of Business and Social Science 2 (2).Google Scholar
  60. Naudé, Willem A., and Andrea Saayman. 2005. Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: A panel data regression analysis. Tourism Economics 11 (3): 365–391.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Odularu, Gbadebo O., and Olayinka I. Kareem. 2007. Tourism and reputation in Africa: A panel data analysis. African Journal of Economic Policy 14 (2): 51–82.Google Scholar
  62. Ouerfelli, Chokri. 2008. Co-integration analysis of quarterly European tourism demand in Tunisia. Tourism Management 29: 127–137. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2007.03.022.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Pedroni, Peter. 1999. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin Economy Statistics 61: 653–670. doi: 10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1653.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Pedroni, Peter. 2004. Panel cointegration: Asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory 20: 597–625. doi: 10.1017/S0266466604203073.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Peng, Bo, Haiyan Song, Geoffrey I. Crouch, and Stephen F. Witt. 2014. A meta-analysis of international tourism demand elasticities. Journal of Travel Research. doi:  10.1177/0047287514528283.
  66. Pesaran, M. Hashem. 2004. General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels.Google Scholar
  67. Pesaran, M. Hashem. 2007. A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics 22 (2): 265–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Rogerson, Christian M. 2007. Tourism routes as vehicles for local economic development in South Africa: The example of the Magaliesberg Meander. Urban Forum 18 (2): 49–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Saayman, Andrea, and Melville Saayman. 2008. Determinants of inbound tourism to South Africa. Tourism Economics 14 (1): 81–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  70. Santana-Gallego, María, Francisco J. Ledesma-Rodríguez, and Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez. 2010. Exchange rate regimes and tourism. Tourism Economics 16 (1): 25–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Sarmidi, Tamat, and Norlida H. Salleh. 2010. Dynamic inter-relationship between trade, economic growth and tourism in Malaysia. Munich University Library.Google Scholar
  72. Seetaram, Neelu, and Larry Dwyer. 2009. Immigration and tourism demand in Australia: A panel data analysis. Anatolia 20 (1): 212–222.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Siddique, Abu, E. Antony Selvanathan, and Saroja Selvanathan. 2012. Remittances and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka. Journal of Development Studies 48: 1045–1062. doi: 10.1080/00220388.2012.663904.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. Smeral, Egon. 2010. Impacts of the world recession and economic crisis on tourism: Forecasts and potential risks. Journal of Travel Research 49 (1): 31–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Soltani, Peyman Karimi, Abbas Aeini, and Zahra Moosavi Jam. 2015. Diversity in the traditional musical Kurdish themes and the tourist attraction. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi Fen Fakültesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 36 (3): 3965–3975. Special Issue I.Google Scholar
  76. Song, Haiyan, and Gang Li. 2008. Tourism demand modelling and forecasting–A review of recent research. Tourism Management 29: 203–220. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Song, Haiyan, and Shanshan Lin. 2010. Impacts of the financial and economic crisis on tourism in Asia. Journal of Travel Research 49 (1): 16–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Song, Haiyan, and Kevin K.F. Wong. 2003. Tourism demand modelling: A time-varying parameter approach. Journal of Travel Research 42 (1): 57–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Song, Haiyan, Peter Romilly, and Xiaming Liu. 1998. The UK consumption function and structural instability: Improving forecasting performance using a timevarying parameter approach. Applied Economy 30: 975–983. doi: 10.1080/000368498325408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. Song, Haiyan, Peter Romilly, and Xiaming Liu. 2000. An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK. Applied Economics 32 (5): 611–624.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  81. Song, Haiyan, Stephen F. Witt, and Gang Li. 2008. The advanced econometrics of tourism demand. Abington: Routledge.Google Scholar
  82. Tan, Amy Y.F., Cynthia McCahon, and Judy Miller. 2002. Modeling tourist ows to Indonesia and Malaysia. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing 13 (1/2): 63–84.Google Scholar
  83. Tang, Sumei, E.Antony Selvanathan, and Saroja Selvanathan. 2007. The relationship between foreign direct investment and tourism: Empirical evidence from China. Tourism Economy 13: 25–39. doi: 10.5367/000000007779784498.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  84. Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report. 2015. Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015 - Reports - World Economic Forum. Accessed 25 May 2016.
  85. Turner, Lindsay W., and Stephen F. Witt. 2001. Factors influencing demand for international tourism: Tourism demand analysis using structural equation modeling, Revisited. Tourism Economics 7 (1): 21–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  86. Veloce, William. 2004. Forecasting inbound Canadian tourism: An evaluation of error corrections model forecasts. Tourism Economics 10: 262–280. doi: 10.5367/0000000041895049.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  87. Webber, Anthony G. 2001. Exchange rate volatility and cointegration in tourism demand. Journal of Travel Research 39 (4): 398–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  88. Witt, Christine A., Stephen F. Witt, and Nick Wilson. 1994. Forecasting international tourist flows. Annals of Tourism Research 21: 612–628. doi: 10.1016/0160-7383(94)90123-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  89. Witt, Stephen F. and Christine A. Witt. 1995. Forecasting tourism demand, A review of empirical research. International Journal of Forecasting 11.Google Scholar
  90. Witt, Stephen F., Haiyan Song, and Panos Louvieris. 2003. Statistical testing in forecasting model selection. Journal of Travel Research 42: 151–158. doi: 10.1177/0047287503253941.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  91. Wong, Kevin K.F., Haiyan Song, and Kaye S. Chon. 2006. Bayesian models for tourism demand forecasting. Tourism Management 27: 773–780. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2005.05.017.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  92. World Tourism Organization UNWTO. 2016. International tourist arrivals up 4% reach a record 1.2 billion in 2015. World Tourism Organization UNWTO. Accessed 25 May 2016.
  93. Xiao, Honggen, and Stephen L.J. Smith. 2006. Case studies in tourism research: A state of-the-art analysis. Tourism Management 27: 738–749.Google Scholar
  94. Zhou-Grundy, Yvonne, and Lindsay W. Turner. 2014. The challenge of regional tourism demand forecasting the case of China. Journal of Travel Research 53 (6): 747–759. doi: 10.1177/0047287513516197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© National Association for Business Economics 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Lagos Business SchoolPan-Atlantic UniversityLagosNigeria
  2. 2.Leeds University Business SchoolUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
  3. 3.Department of EconomicsUniversity of LagosLagosNigeria

Personalised recommendations