Abstract
Francisco Sagasti traces the origins of future-oriented exercises, focusing on the emergence of scenario-building techniques. He suggests that as a result of conceptual and methodological advances, and of a multiplicity of experiences covering many years of experience, there is now a rich set of procedures to anticipate the future. He argues that in Latin America these advances have improved significantly anticipatory decision making that are the essence of planning processes. The challenge is now to more closely relate future-oriented exercises to the messiness and immediacy of political events and decision-making.
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Notes
3 Eric Trist developed this approach at the Tavistock Institute, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and the University of York, Canada,
4 For a description of the Shell approach to scenario building see Wack (1985) and de Geus (1988). For a highly readable account of scenario building techniques in the Shell mode, see the book by Schwartz (1991). Schwartz was a member of the Stanford Research Institute team that worked closely with Royal/Dutch Shell during the 1970 s and is now the President of the Global Business Network.
5 See the five volumes edited by the ‘Sociedad Interamericana de Planificaciòn’ and published by the Instituto Peruano de Estudios de Desarrollo, Zuzunaga Flores, Carlos (2000) The volumes cover the social situation in Latin America in year 2000 (edited by Horacio Godoy), national and international politics in Latin America in year 2000 (edited by Kalman Silvert), economic integration and development (edited by Claudio Véliz), the new Latin American culture (edited by Harvey Perloff), and demography and planning in Latin America (edited by José Donayre).
6 The feeling of frustration was captured in Hector Ciapuscio's preface to the report: ‘We have almost no time, this we all agree on. Either we project and carry out a great enterprise, our enterprise, starting now, or others will finally consummate their own project on us, over what will be left of our shamed will.’ (p. 4, our translation).
7 For a more complete account of the approach and some applications see: Varsavsky (1971) and 1973)
8 See www.agendaperu.org.pe.
9 The services of Dr. Arden Brumell, a member of Shell's Canadian subsidiary, were retained to assist the CIDA team in charge of the scenario-building process. Dr. Arden Brumell now heads Decision Futures, a Calgary-based consulting firm that specializes in scenario building (see his article in this edition of Development).
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Additional information
This essay is based on a draft paper prepared jointly with Jean Daudelin, professor at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada.
2 See, Emery and Trist (1973) and the undated report prepared by a team led by Pierre André Julien (Julien u.d.) from the ‘Groupe de Recherches sur le Futur’ of the University of Québec.
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Sagasti, F. Thinking about the Future: Trends and scenarios in Latin America. Development 47, 15–25 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.development.1100091
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.development.1100091