Decision-Making in a Turbulent Environment

Abstract

Organizations and individuals that are participants in complex decision problems interact in an environment that can be described in terms of its social, technological and natural elements. The characteristics of these elements of the environment are not static and unchanging, but are subject to continuous and possibly turbulent change. A major effect of these changes in the environment is to increase the uncertainty experienced by participants dealing with decision problems. Decision procedures that can be used with advantage in a less dynamic environment prove to be inadequate under the turbulent conditions. The nature of the environment in which modern complex decision problems arise is examined in this paper. A description is then given of a decision-making procedure that can be adopted to deal with problems that arise in such environments. The paper ends with a summary of the experience to date of the use of this procedure in seven organizations operating in a wide range of fields.