Stochastic-network Reduction and Sensitivity Techniques in a Cost Effectiveness Study of a Military Communications System

Abstract

This paper describes some aspects of cost effectiveness methodology and operational research as they have been applied in a system design study for a military communications system. There are two main areas of interest from an operational research point of view:

(a) The attempt to use cost effectiveness analysis as an integral part of system design.

(b) The development and application of new techniques (notably in stochastic network analysis and simulation) which are potentially of much wider application.

There are several ways of attacking the problem of multiple objectives encountered in a cost effectiveness analysis. These are briefly described and the preferred method of a single measure of effectiveness is discussed in detail. The measure used in the communications system design study is presented and the method of evaluating it by simulation is described. The next step after evaluation of the effectiveness is optimization and here the use of the Lagrange multipliers is introduced. This method requires iteration on the values of performance parameters and their costs and this becomes very time-consuming if a simulation must be performed each time. It is here that the novel methods of analysing networks are developed. The main use of these methods of analysis, or reduction rules, has been in reducing the size and complexity of the simulations. The technique which has contributed most to the reduction in the number of simulations required to arrive at an optimum disposition of resources is a method of carrying out a sensitivity analysis based on data collected during a single simulation run. This hybrid analytical-cum-simulation technique is discussed in detail with reference to a communications system, and its application to a wider range of problems, such as probabilistic PERT, indicated.