A Predictive Information System for Management

Abstract

The paper describes the design and implementation of a management information system which deals with statements about events that can be expressed only in terms of probabilities. Some consideration is given to the technical basis of the system and to the human organization needed to maintain an information centre-giving some insight into problems of co-ordination in decentralized organizations. Finally, the paper analyses the performance both of the centre and of the reporters' to the centre over a full year and there is a brief attempt to assess the working experience against the hypotheses upon which the centre was based.