French Politics

, Volume 12, Issue 4, pp 338–347 | Cite as

Forecasting the rise of the Front National during the 2014 municipal elections

  • Sylvain Brouard
  • Martial Foucault
Data, Measures and Methods


This article develops an electoral forecasting model for the extreme-right vote share in France during the 2014 municipal elections. On the basis of data gathered between 1998 and 2014 from a sample of 56 cities where the Front National(FN) has always presented candidates for municipal office, the model anticipated a rise in the FN’s share of the vote during the 2014 municipal elections. Controlling for political context through election type, FN popularity and electoral dynamics in addition to the criminality rate, this article adds to previous extreme-right forecasting models demonstrating that the FN’s vote share is not at all unpredictable even in the case of local elections.


extreme-right electoral forecasting municipal elections 


  1. Evans, J. and Ivaldi, G. (2008) Forecasting the extreme-right vote in France (1984–2007). French Politics 6 (2): 137–151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Evans, J. and Ivaldi, G. (2010) Comparing forecast models of radical right voting in four European countries (1973–2008). International Journal of Forecasting 26 (1): 82–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Evans, J. and Ivaldi, G. (2012) Forecasting the extreme-right vote at the 2012 presidential election: Evaluating our model. French Politics 10 (4): 378–382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Greene, W.H. (2008) Econometric Analysis, 6th edn. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
  5. Jérôme, B. and Jérôme-Speziari, V. (2003) A Le Pen vote function for the 2002 presidential election: A way to reduce uncertainty. French Politics 1 (2): 247–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Kramer, G. (1971) Short-term fluctuations in US voting behaviour, 1896–1964. American Political Science Review 65 (1): 131–143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Lewis-Beck, M.S. (2005) Election forecasting: Principles and practice. British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7 (2): 145–164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Martin, P. (1996) Le vote le Pen: l'électorat du Front national. Paris, France: Note de la Fondation Saint-Simon.Google Scholar
  9. Nannestad, P. and Paldam, M. (1994) The Vp-function – A survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after 25 years. Public Choice 79 (3–4): 213–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Ltd 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sylvain Brouard
    • 1
  • Martial Foucault
    • 1
  1. 1.CEVIPOF, CNRS, Sciences PoParisFrance

Personalised recommendations