This article develops an electoral forecasting model for the extreme-right vote share in France during the 2014 municipal elections. On the basis of data gathered between 1998 and 2014 from a sample of 56 cities where the Front National(FN) has always presented candidates for municipal office, the model anticipated a rise in the FN’s share of the vote during the 2014 municipal elections. Controlling for political context through election type, FN popularity and electoral dynamics in addition to the criminality rate, this article adds to previous extreme-right forecasting models demonstrating that the FN’s vote share is not at all unpredictable even in the case of local elections.
extreme-right electoral forecasting municipal elections
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.
Evans, J. and Ivaldi, G. (2008) Forecasting the extreme-right vote in France (1984–2007). French Politics 6 (2): 137–151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, J. and Ivaldi, G. (2010) Comparing forecast models of radical right voting in four European countries (1973–2008). International Journal of Forecasting 26 (1): 82–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, J. and Ivaldi, G. (2012) Forecasting the extreme-right vote at the 2012 presidential election: Evaluating our model. French Politics 10 (4): 378–382.CrossRefGoogle Scholar