Skip to main content
Log in

Test of a decadal climate forecast

  • Correspondence
  • Published:

From Nature Geoscience

View current issue Submit your manuscript

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Figure 1: Evaluation of decadal climate forecasts (updated from Fig. 3 of ref. 2).

References

  1. Hansen, J. et al. J. Geophy. Res. Atmos. 93, 9341–9364 (1988).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Schnur, R. & Delworth, T. Nature 407, 617–620 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Knutti, R, Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J. & Meehl, G. A. J. Clim. 23, 2739–2758 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Frame, D. J. & Stone, D. A. Nature Clim. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1763 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Pielke, R. A. Nature Geosci. 1, 206 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Brocker, J. & Smith, L. A. Weather Forecast. 22, 382–388 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Easterling, D. R. & Wehner, M. F. Geophys Res Lett. 36, L08706 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Mitchell, J. F. B., Johns, T. C., Gregory, J. M. & Tett, S. F. B. Nature 376, 501–504 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Lee, T. C. K., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X. & Tsao, M. J. Clim. 19, 5305–5318 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. IPCC Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001).

  11. Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. J. Geophys Res. Atmos. 117, D08101 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., Meehl, G. A. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. & Raftery, A. E. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 69, 243–268 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Allen, M. R. & Stott, P. A. Clim. Dynam. 21, 477–491 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Allen, M. R. & Tett, S. F. B. Clim. Dynam. 15, 419–434 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Joint DECC and Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). P.A.S. and M.R.A. were also supported by the US Department of Energy through the International Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG) and M.R.A. received support from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) End-to-end Quantification of Uncertainty for Impacts Prediction (EQUIP) project. We thank the climate modelling groups contributing to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) CMIP5 project for producing and making available their model output, and G. Jones for providing data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Myles R. Allen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Allen, M., Mitchell, J. & Stott, P. Test of a decadal climate forecast. Nature Geosci 6, 243–244 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1788

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1788

  • Springer Nature Limited

This article is cited by

Navigation