Poisson's Law and the Frequency of Hurricanes

Abstract

POISSON'S law, or the ‘law of small probabilities’ as it is sometimes called, is used at times for describing the probabilities that no, one, two, etc., particular events of a relatively infrequent character will occur in a single year. It has been used in the estimation of the probability of one or more hurricanes striking a given area, say, New England, in a year. The purpose of this communication is to point out weaknesses inherent in this treatment, and to suggest one or more alternative approaches.