Model Independent Parametric Decision Making

Abstract

Accurate knowledge of the effect of parameter uncertainty on process design and operation is essential for optimal and feasible operation of a process plant. Existing approaches dealing with uncertainty in the design and process operations level assume the existence of a well defined model to represent process behavior and in almost all cases convexity of the involved equations. However, most of the realistic case studies cannot be described by well characterised models. Thus, a new approach is presented in this paper based on the idea of High Dimensional Model Reduction technique which utilize a reduced number of model runs to build an uncertainty propagation model that expresses process feasibility. Building on this idea a systematic iterative procedure is developed for design under uncertainty with a unique characteristic of providing parametric expression of the optimal objective with respect to uncertain parameters. The proposed approach treats the system as a black box since it does not rely on the nature of the mathematical model of the process, as is illustrated through a number of examples.