Skip to main content
Log in

Accelerated Simulation of the Probability of Failure of a Main Oil Pipeline Planned Target

  • Published:
Cybernetics and Systems Analysis Aims and scope

Abstract

A serial model of a main oil pipeline system is investigated. Lifetime and repair-time distribution functions of the components are assumed to be of a general form. A new accelerated simulation method is proposed enabling one to construct high-accuracy estimates of the probability of nonfulfillment of the pipeline planned target and to evaluate the contribution of every component to the reliability of the system. A numerical example is given.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  1. V. T. Agishev,A. N. Leventsov, andK. E. Rashchepkin, “Performances of operation of a main oil pipeline,” Organization and Management of Petroleum Industry, No. 4, 32–34 (1976).

  2. R. S. Maslov andA. V. Roslyakov, Providing Efficiency and Quality of Operation of Main Oil Pipelines [in Russian], VNIIOENG, Moscow (1984).

    Google Scholar 

  3. G. N. Cherkesov, Reliability of Technical Systems with Time Redundancy [in Russian], Sov. Radio, Moscow (1974).

    Google Scholar 

  4. E. R. Stavrovskii,M. G. Sukharev, andA. M. Karasevich, Methods of Calculation of the Reliability of Main Gas Pipelines [in Russian], Nauka, Novosibirsk (1982).

    Google Scholar 

  5. G. N. Cherkesov, “The state-of-the-art of the theory and practice of reliability of multiphase systems with accumulators,” Reliability and Quality Control, 10 3–7 (1986).

    Google Scholar 

  6. G. V. Druzhinin, “On the estimation of reliability of production systems with accumulators,” Reliability and Quality Control, 10 8–19 (1986).

    Google Scholar 

  7. M. G. Sukharev andV. N. Morozova, “A model of the reliability of a network system with intermediate accumulators,” Reliability and Quality Control, 10 20–26 (1986).

    Google Scholar 

  8. G. N. Cherkesov, “Estimate of trouble-free operation of a two-phase system with unequal coefficiencies of sections,” Reliability and Quality Control, 10 34–42 (1986).

    Google Scholar 

  9. N. I. Pas'ko, “Calculation of the efficiency and other indices of automatic line with several accumulators,” Reliability and Quality Control, 10 43–49 (1986).

    Google Scholar 

  10. V. T. Agishev,L. G. Arslanova, andA. N. Leventsov, “Application of simulation models to the study of the reliability of main oil pipeline systems,” in: Methodical Problems in the Study of the Reliability of Large Systems in Power Engineering [in Russian], 22 SEI, Irkutsk (1981), pp. 124–129.

    Google Scholar 

  11. E. R. Stavrovskii andS. L. Khalfin, “Simulation of operation of large pipeline systems for estimating the reliability of oil and gas supplies,” in: Simulation Approach to the Study of Large-Scale Systems in Power Engineering [in Russian], SEI, Irkutsk (1986), pp. 84–96.

    Google Scholar 

  12. S. M. Ermakov, The Monte Carlo Method and Adjacent Problems [in Russian], Nauka, Moscow (1975).

    Google Scholar 

  13. I. N. Kovalenko, Analysis of Rare Events in Estimating Efficiency and Reliability of Systems [in Russian], Sov. Radio, Moscow (1980).

    Google Scholar 

  14. P. S. Shpiga, “Solving problems of the continuous operation of main oil pipelines by the methods of reliability theory,” Abstract of Doctoral Dissertation, Inst. Kibern., Akad. Nauk Ukr. SSR, Kiev (1991).

  15. I. N. Kovalenko, “Calculation of characteristics of highly reliable systems by the analytical-statistical method,” Electron. Modelir., 2 No. 4, 5–8 (1980).

    Google Scholar 

  16. I. N. Kovalenko andN. Yu. Kuznetsov, Methods of Calculation of Highly Reliable Systems [in Russian], Radio i Svyaz', Moscow (1988).

    Google Scholar 

  17. I. N. Kovalenko,N. Yu. Kuznetsov, andP. A. Pegg, Mathematical Theory of Reliability of Time-Dependent Systems with Practical Applications, Wiley, Chichester (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  18. L. A. Zavadskaya, “On one approach to acceleration of simulation of redundant systems with reservation,” Electron. Modelir. No. 6, 57–60 (1984).

  19. N. Yu. Kuznetsov, “Calculation of the coefficient of operational availability of a restored system by the analytical-statistical method,” Kibernetika, No. 5, 95–101 (1985).

  20. V. D. Shpak, “Analytical-statistical estimates of nonstationary reliability and efficiency measures of semi-Markov systems,” Kibernetika, No. 3, 103–107 (1991).

  21. N. Yu. Kuznetsov, “Accelerated simulation of failure probability of a system consisting of elements with considerably different reliability,” Kibern. Sist. Anal., No. 6, 48–58 (1999).

  22. P. S. Shpiga, “Calculation of the reliability of a system of main oil pipelines by the analytical-statistical method,” in: Energo-, Resursosberezhenie i Teplometriya [in Russian], Inst. Problem Energosberezhen., Akad. Nauk Ukr. SSR, Kiev (1990), pp. 41–50.

    Google Scholar 

  23. N. Yu. Kuznetsov, “Calculation of the probability of trouble-free operation of a main oil pipeline by the analytical-statistical method (a sequential model),” Kibern. Sist. Analiz, No. 4, 132–145 (2000).

  24. V. S. Korolyuk andA. F. Turbin, Markovian Restoration Processes in Problems of System Reliability [in Russian], Naukova Dumka, Kiev (1982).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kuznetsov, N.Y. Accelerated Simulation of the Probability of Failure of a Main Oil Pipeline Planned Target. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis 37, 100–108 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016624302150

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016624302150

Navigation