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Uncertainty Propagation in Layered Unsaturated Soils

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Abstract

This study analyzes the wetting front migration in layered unsaturated soils which have uncertain hydraulic properties. A Monte Carlo scheme was used to propagate the uncertainty of hydraulic parameters. RANUF, a computer program, was developed to solve the one-dimensional, pressure-based form of Richards' equation and to implement the Monte Carlo scheme.

Uncertainty propagation was investigated for two-layered soils of various alternating fine over coarse or coarse over fine layer configurations and of various nonrandomized and/or randomized layer arrangements. The effects of changing initial and boundary conditions were also investigated. Randomness was introduced via the saturated hydraulic conductivity, K s, which was assumed to be distributed lognormally with a coefficient of variation of about 10 percent.

It was found that in layered soils the mean profiles (i.e., water content and pressure head) remained essentially unchanged regardless of which layer (or layers) was (or were) randomized; however, the variance profiles were affected. Also, higher uniform initial water content tended to inhibit uncertainty, but higher supply rates did not show any characteristic trend for uncertainty behavior.

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Dillah, D.D., Protopapas, A.L. Uncertainty Propagation in Layered Unsaturated Soils. Transport in Porous Media 38, 273–290 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006652910944

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