Abstract
Smoothed monthly mean Ap indices are decomposed into two components (Ap) c and (Ap) n. The former is directly correlated with the current sunspot numbers, while the latter is shown to achieve its maximum correlation with the sunspot numbers after some time lag. This latter property is used to develop a method for predicting the sunspot maximum based on the observed value of (Ap) n maximum which occurs during the preceding cycle. The value of R M for cycle 23 predicted by this method is 149.3 ± 19.9. A method to estimate the rise time (from solar minimum to maximum) has been developed (based on analyses of Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann, 1994) and yields a value of 4.2 years. Using an estimate that the minimum between cycles 22 and 23 occurred in May 1996, it is predicted that the sunspot maximum for cycle 23 will occur in July 2000.
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Li, Y. PREDICTIONS OF THE FEATURES FOR SUNSPOT CYCLE 23. Solar Physics 170, 437–445 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004963215247
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004963215247