Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Causal inference, time and observation plans in the social sciences

  • Published:
Quality and Quantity Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper first discusses the role of time in causal inferences in the social sciences. It then compares in detail how panel and event history observation designs affect causal analysis. It shows that the collection of event history data is an extremely useful approach for uncovering causal relationships or mapping out systems of causal relations. It concludes that event history data provide an optimal basis for a causal understanding of social processes because they allow the social researcher to relate the change in future outcomes to conditions in the past at each point in time.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aalen, O. O. (1987). Dynamic modelling and causality, Scand. Actuarial Journal 12: 177-190.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arminger, G., Clogg, C. C. & Sobel, M. E. (eds) (1995). Handbook of Statistical Modeling for the Social and Behavioral Sciences. New York: Plenum Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arminger, G. and Müller, F. (1990): Lineare Modelle zur Analyse von Paneldaten. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barron, D. N. (1993). The analysis of count data: overdispersion and autocorrelation, Sociological Methodology 22: 179-220.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P. (1986). Career opportunities in the Federal Republic of Germany: a dynamic approach to the study of life-course, cohort, and period effects, European Sociological Review 2: 208-225.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P. (1987). Labor market entry and the sexual segregation of careers in the FRG, American Journal of Sociology 93: 83-118.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P. (1989). Kohortendifferenzierung und Karriereprozeß. Eine Längsschnittstudie über die Veränderung der Bildings-und Brerufschancen im Lebenslauf. Frankfurt a. M. and New York: Campus Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P. (ed.) (1995). Family Formation in Modern Societies and the New Role of Women. Boulder: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P. (1996). Macro-sociology, rational choice theory, and time. A theoretical perspective on the empirical analysis of social processes, European Sociological Review 12: 81-206.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P., DeRose, A., Hoem, J. & Rohwer, G. (1995). Education, modernization, and the risk of marriage disruption in Sweden, West Germany, and Italy, pp. 200-222, in: K. Oppenheim Mason & An-Magritt Jensen (eds), Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P. & Hakim, C. (eds) (1997) Between Equalization and Marginalization. Part-time Working Women in Europe and the United States of America. Oxford: Oxford University Press (forthcoming).

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P., Hamerle, A. & Mayer, K. U. (1989). Event History Analysis. Hillsdale (N.J.): Erlbaum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P. & Huinink, J. (1991). Human capital investments or norms of role transition? How women's schooling and career affect the process of family formation, American Journal of Sociology 97: 143-168.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P., Manting, D. & Rohwer, G. (1993). Patterns of change in family formation in the Federal Republic of Germany and the Netherlands: some consequences for solidarity between generations, pp. 175-196, in H. A. Becker & P. L. J. Hermkens (eds), Solidarity of Generations. Demographic, Economic and Social Change, and its Consequences. Amsterdam: Thesis Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blossfeld, H.-P. & Rohwer, G. (1995). Techniques of Event History Modeling. New Approaches to Causal Analysis. Mahweh (N.J.): Erlbaum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, D. T. & Stanley, J. C. (1963). Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research. Chicago: Rand McNally.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chamberlain, G. (1984). Panel data, pp. 1247-1317, in Z. Griliches & M. D. Intriligator (eds), Handbook of Econometrics, vol II. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clogg, C. C. & Arminger, G. (1993). On strategy for methodological analysis, Sociological Methodology 23: 57-74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coleman, J. S. (1968). The mathematical study of change, pp. 428-478 in M. Hubert and A. B. Blalock (eds), New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coleman, J. S. (1981). Longitudinal Data Analysis. New York: Basic Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of Social Theory. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coleman, J.S. & Hao, L. (1989). Linear systems analysis: macrolevel analysis with microlevel data, Sociological Methodology 19: 395-422.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, J. A. (1978). Studying categorical data over time, Social Science Research 7: 151-179.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dex, S. (ed.) (1991). Life and Work History Analyses: Qualitative and Quantitative Developments. London and New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duncan, O. D. (1966). Methodological issues in the analysis of social mobility, pp. 51-97 in N. Smelser & S. M. Lipset (eds), Social Structure and Social Mobility, Chicago: Aldine.

    Google Scholar 

  • Engel, U. and Reinecke, J. (1994). Panelanalyse. New York: De Gruyter.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freeman, R. A. (1991). Statistical analysis and shoe leather, Sociological Methodology 21: 291-313.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldthorpe, J. H. (1996). The quantitative analysis of large-scale data-sets and rational action theory: for a sociological alliance, European Sociological Review 12: 109-126.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goodman, L. A. (1973). Causal analysis of data from panel studies and other kind of surveys. American Journal of Sociology 78: 1135-1191.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hannan, M. T. and Tuma, N. B. (1979). Methods for temporal analysis, Ann. Rev. Sociol. 5: 303-328.

    Google Scholar 

  • Holland, P. W. (1986). Statistics and causal inference, Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, 945-960.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiao, C. (1986). Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hunt, M. (1985). Profiles of Social Research. The Scientific Study of Human Interactions. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jöreskog, K. G. & Sörbom, D. (1993). LISREL 8. Structural Equation Modeling with the SIMPLIS Command Language. Chicago: Scientific Software International.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly, J. R. & McGrath, J. E. (1988). On Time and Method. Newbury Park: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lazarsfeld, P. F. (1948). The use of panels in social research, Proceedings of the American Philosophy of Sociology 92: 405-410.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lazarsfeld, P. F. (1972). Mutual relations over time of two attributes: a review and integration of various approaches, pp. 461-480 in M. Hammer, K. Salzinger & S. Sutton (eds), Psychopathology. New York: Basic Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lieberson, S. (1985). Making it Count. The Improvement of Social Research and Theory. Berkeley: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnusson, D. & Bergmann, L. R. (eds) (1990). Data Quality in Longitudinal Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnusson, D., Bergmann, L. R. & Törestad, B. (eds), (1991). Problems and Methods in Longitudinal Research: Stability and Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marini, M. M. & Singer, B. (1988). Causality in the social sciences, pp. 347-409 in C. C. Clogg (ed.), Sociological Methodology, Vol. 18.

  • Mayer, K. U. (ed.) (1990). Lebensverläufe und sozialer Wandel. Sonderheft 31. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mayer, K. U. & Brückner, E. (1989). Lebensverläufe und Wohlfahrtsentwicklung. Konzeption, Design und Methodik der Erhebung von Lebensverläufen der Geburtsjahrgänge 1929–31, 1939–41, 1949–51, Materialien aus der Bildungsforschung, No. 35, Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Berlin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mayer, K. U. & Tuma, N. B. (1990). Event History Analysis in Life Course Research Madison (W.I.): University of Wisconsin Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Medical Research Council (1992). Review of Longitudinal Studies. London (mimeo).

  • Sandefur, G. D & Tuma, N. B. (1987). How data type affects conclusions about individual mobility, Social Science Research 16: 301-328.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shingles, R. D. (1976). Causal inference in cross-lagged panel analysis, Political Methodology 3: 95-133.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singer, B. & Spilerman, S. (1976a). The representation of social processes by Markov models, American Journal of Sociology 82: 1-54.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singer, B. & Spilerman, S. (1976b). Some methodological issues in the analysis of longitudinal surveys, Annals of Economic and Social Measurement 5: 447-474.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tuma, N. B. & Hannan, M T. (1984). Social Dynamics. Models and Methods. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yamaguchi, K. (1991). Event History Analysis. Newbury Park: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut für Empirische und Angewandte Soziologie (EMPAS), Fachbereich 8, University of Bremen, Postfach 330 440, F-28334, Bremen, Germany

    Hans-Peter Blossfeld & Götz Rohwer

Authors
  1. Hans-Peter Blossfeld
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Götz Rohwer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Blossfeld, HP., Rohwer, G. Causal inference, time and observation plans in the social sciences. Quality & Quantity 31, 361–384 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004289932598

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004289932598

Keywords

Search

Navigation