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A History of Causal Analysis in the Social Sciences

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Handbook of Causal Analysis for Social Research

Part of the book series: Handbooks of Sociology and Social Research ((HSSR))

Abstract

In this chapter we provide an overview of the history of causal analysis in the social sciences. We review literature published from the mid-1800s to the present day, tracing the key strains of thought that lead to our current understandings of causal analysis in the social sciences. Given space limitations, we focus on three of the most important strands of causal analysis – those based on (1) constant conjunction and regularity accounts, (2) correlational and path analytic techniques, and (3) potential outcomes and counterfactual frameworks. We then return to the complexity of a Weberian approach, which contains nearly all of the elements of these three major frameworks into a single case-oriented method to causal analysis. We conclude by speculating on the future of causal analysis in the social sciences.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Rubin writes that “Neyman (1923) in his Ph.D. thesis, appears to have been the first writer to use this potential outcome notation” (2005: 324).

  2. 2.

    It may be useful to note here that we do not make a strong distinction between the use of the words factors and variables. In fact, insisting on a strong distinction between these two in practice is often fruitless and nearly always misleading. Here, each can be continuous or discrete and in the most general sense refers to things that can vary or be manipulated by a researcher. Thus, unless otherwise noted, we use variables and factors interchangeably throughout the text. However, we do reserve the term random variable for something more specific as is often the case in the statistical literature.

  3. 3.

    See Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983) for further details on this theorem and its utility.

  4. 4.

    See Ringer’s (2002) insightful discussion of Weber’s contributions to causal analysis.

  5. 5.

    See Eliason and Stryker (2009) for the foundations of the fuzzy-set goodness-of-fit tests used by Eliason et al. (2008) and Stryker et al. (2011b).

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Stephen L. Morgan and Robin Stryker for their invaluable time and comments, which helped to make this chapter all the better. We, of course, are solely responsible for any remaining errors.

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  1. Department of Sociology, University of Arizona, Social Science Building, Room 400, 1145 E, South Campus Drive, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA

    Sondra N. Barringer, Scott R. Eliason & Erin Leahey

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  1. Sondra N. Barringer
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Correspondence to Sondra N. Barringer .

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    Stephen L. Morgan

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Barringer, S.N., Eliason, S.R., Leahey, E. (2013). A History of Causal Analysis in the Social Sciences. In: Morgan, S. (eds) Handbook of Causal Analysis for Social Research. Handbooks of Sociology and Social Research. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6094-3_2

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