Abstract
Estimates of impact of climate change on crop production could be biased depending upon the uncertainties in climate change scenarios, region of study, crop models used for impact assessment and the level of management. This study reports the results of a study where the impact of various climate change scenarios has been assessed on grain yields of irrigated rice with two popular crop simulation models- Ceres-Rice and ORYZA1N at different levels of N management. The results showed that the direct effect of climate change on rice crops in different agroclimatic regions in India would always be positive irrespective of the various uncertainties. Rice yields increased between 1.0 and 16.8% in pessimistic scenarios of climate change depending upon the level of management and model used. These increases were between 3.5 and 33.8% in optimistic scenarios. At current as well as improved level of management, southern and western parts of India which currently have relatively lower temperatures compared to northern and eastern regions, are likely to show greater sensitivity in rice yields under climate change. The response to climate change is small at low N management compared to optimal management. The magnitude of this impact can be biased upto 32% depending on the uncertainty in climate change scenario, level of management and crop model used. These conclusions are highly dependent on the specific thresholds of phenology and photosynthesis to change in temperature used in the models. Caution is needed in using the impact assessment results made with the average simulated grain yields and mean changes in climatic parameters.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adams, R. M., Flemming, R. A., Chang, C. C., McCarl, B. A., and Rosenzweig, C.: 1995, ‘A Reassessment of the Economic Effects of Global Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture’, Clim. Change 30, 147–167.
Adams, R. M., McCarl, B. A., Dudek, J. W., and Glyer, J. D.: 1988, ‘Implications of Global Climate Change for Western Agriculture’, West J. Agric. Econom. 68, 886–894.
Aggarwal, P. K.: 1994, ‘Uncertainties in Plant, Soil and Weather Inputs in Crop Growth Models: Implications for Simulated Outputs and their Applications’, Agric. Systems 48, 361–384.
Aggarwal, P. K., Kropff, M. J., Cassman, K. G., and ten Berge, H. F. M.: 1997, ‘Simulating Genetic Strategies for Increased Yield Potential in Irrigated, Tropical Environments’, Field Crops Res. 51, 5–18.
Alocilja, E. C. and Ritchie, J. T.: 1991, ‘A Model for Phenology of Rice’, in Hodges, T. (ed.), Predicting Crop Phenology, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, pp. 181–190.
Ewert, F., Oijen van, M., and Porter, J. R.: 1999, ‘Simulation of Growth and Development Processes of Spring Wheat in Response to CO2 and Ozone for Different Sites and Years in Europe Using Mechanistic Crop Simulation Models’, Europ. J. Agronomy 10, 231–247.
Fangmeier, A., De Temmerman, L., Mortensen, L., Kemp, K., Burke, J., Mitchell, R., Oijen van, M., and Weigel, H.-J.: 1999, ‘Effects on Nutrients and Grain Quality in Spring Wheat Crops Grown under Elevated CO2 Concentration and Stress Condition in European, Multiple-Site Experiment “ESPACE-Wheat”’, Europ. J. Agronomy 10, 215–229.
GCTE: 1994, Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems Focus 3 Wheat Network. Model and Experimental Meta Data, GCTE Core Project Office, Canberra.
Giorgi, F., Meehl, G. A., Kattenberg, A., Grassl, H., Mitchell, J. F. B., Stouffer, R. J., Tokioka, T., Weaver, A. J., and Wigley, T. M. L.: 1998, ‘Simulation of Regional Climate Change with Global Coupled Climate Models and Regional Modeling Techniques’, in Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., Moss, R. H., and Dokken, D. J. (eds.), The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO-UNEP Rep., Cambridge University Press, U.K., pp. 429–436.
Kimball, B. A.: 1983, ‘Carbon Dioxide and Agricultural Yield. An Assemblage and Analysis of 430 Prior Observations’, Agronomy J. 75, 779–788.
Mall, R. K. and Aggarwal, P. K., 2002, ‘Climate Change and Rice Yields in Diverse Agro-Environments of India. I. Evaluation of Impact Assessment Models’, Clim. Change 52, 315–330.
Mitchell, J. F. B., Manabe, S., Tokioka, T., and Meleshko, V.: 1990, ‘Equilibrium Climate Change’, in Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.), Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, U.K., pp. 131–172.
Mitchell, R. A. C., Black, C. R., Burkart, S., Burke, J. I., Donnelly, A., De Temmerman, L., Fangmeier, A., Mulholland, B. J., Theobald, J. C., and Oijen, van, M.: 1999, ‘Photosynthetic Responses in Spring Wheat Grown under Elevated CO2 Concentration and Stress Condition in European, Multiple-Site Experiment “ESPACE-Wheat”’, Europ. J. Agronomy 10, 205–214.
Porter, J. R. and Jamieson, P. D., and Wilson, D. R.: 1993, ‘Comparison of the Wheat Simulation Models AFRCWHEAT2, CERES-Wheat and SWHEAT for Non-Limiting Conditions of Crop Growth’, Field Crop Res. 33, 131–157.
Rabbinge, R.: 1999, ‘The Role of Asia in World Food Security’, in Bindraban, P. S., Van Keulen, H., Kuyenhoven, A., Rabbinge, R., and Uithol, P. W. J. (eds.), Food Security at Different Scales: Demographic, Biophysical and Socio-Economic Considerations, AB-DLO and Graduate School for Production Ecology, Wageningen, Series on Quantitative Approaches in Systems Analysis No. 21, pp. 153–157.
Rosenzweig, C. and Parry, M. L.: 1994, ‘Potential Impact of Climate Change onWorld Food Supply’, Nature 367, 133–138.
Singh, U., Ritchie, J. T., and Godwin, D. C.: 1993, ‘A Users Guide to CERES-Rice V2.10’, Simulation manual IFDC-SM-4, IFDC, Muscle Shoals, Al, U.S.A., p. 131.
Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C., Moss, R. H., and Dokken, D. J.: 1998, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO-UNEP Rep., Cambridge University Press, U.K., p. 517.
Wolf, J., Evans, L. G., Semenov, M. A., Eckersten, H., and Iglesias, A.: 1996, ‘Comparison ofWheat Simulation Models under Climate Change. I.Model Calibration and Sensitivity Analyses’, Clim. Res. 7, 253–270. (Received 6 June 2000; in revised form 6 July 2001)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Aggarwal, P.K., Mall, R.K. Climate Change and Rice Yields in Diverse Agro-Environments of India. II. Effect of Uncertainties in Scenarios and Crop Models on Impact Assessment. Climatic Change 52, 331–343 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013714506779
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013714506779