1 Introduction

Climate change presents a universal challenge that impacts all of humanity. With the largest population in the world, China has assumed a crucial and proactive role in advancing global efforts to address climate change, thus demonstrating its responsibility as a major nation (Qi and Peter 2022). In the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, world leaders signed the “Paris Agreement”, which aims to limit the global average temperature increase to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, necessitating a significant reduction in carbon emissions (Hao 2023). According to the Paris Agreement’s effective clauses, China and the United States together account for 38% of global emissions. Notably, China was among the first to ratify the Paris Agreement and submit the instrument of accession jointly with the United States, demonstrating its confidence and determination to address climate change and promote a low-carbon transition.

On September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping solemnly pledged at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that China would strive to peak its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions before 2030 and work towards carbon neutrality by 2060. This commitment signifies China’s intention to transition from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality within the shortest possible timeframe. This Chinese initiative aligns with the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the vision of building a “Beautiful China” (Hilton and Kerr 2017). Furthermore, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China Report proposed the “positive and prudent advancement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”, demonstrating China’s unwavering commitment to address climate change.

There are two ways to achieve carbon neutrality: one is to reduce carbon emission, and the other is to increase carbon sequestration (Fig. 1). In nature, carbon in the atmosphere is primarily collected through carbon pools formed by terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Forests constitute the main body of terrestrial ecosystems, playing crucial roles in carbon sequestration and storage. Forestry and biodiversity conservation are closely intertwined, and a healthy forest ecosystem is essential to maintaining biodiversity. A recent study estimated that 2.2%, 2.2%, and 2.3% of species comprised 50% of the tropical trees in Africa, Amazonia, and Southeast Asia, respectively (Cooper et al. 2024). However, as the forests age, their net primary productivity is projected to decline by 5.0% ± 1.4% in 2050, 8.4% ± 1.6% in 2060, and 16.6% ± 2.8% in 2100, indicating the weakening of carbon sinks (Shang et al. 2023).

Fig. 1
figure 1

The diagram of carbon neutrality in the aspect of forestry

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There is considerable research focusing on carbon input and carbon output. Protecting existing subsoil carbon stocks is crucial because the time scales required to form existing soil carbon stocks range from hundreds to millennia, preventing significant risks (Sierra et al. 2024). Plant carbon input has different and persistent effects on soil organic matter (SOM) in various soil layers. For instance, the relative importance of plant carbon input surpasses other factors, making it the major contributor to SOM destabilization in the topsoil. Moreover, with increasing soil depth, the regulatory effect of plant carbon input gradually diminishes, with mineral protection becoming the primary factor determining the stability of deep soil carbon (Chen et al. 2021). As for carbon output, the study indicated that increases in greenhouse gas emissions now exceed 55 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (Gt CO2e) year−1 and have resulted in a temperature increase of more than 1.1°C above preindustrial times (Pörtner et al. 2023).

Forests possess significant carbon sequestration potential, attributed to the carbon-absorbing capabilities of vegetation and soil, while also reducing carbon loss and emission. Therefore, efforts should be focused on expanding and enhancing forest areas and quality in the future. However, China’s forestry development still faces severe challenges, but the “Dual Carbon” strategy presents opportunities to be seized. This study first examines the potential of vegetations and soil in the carbon sequestration process. It then discusses challenges facing forestry development, and highlights the opportunities, pathways, and prospects for forest development under “the Dual Carbon” strategy.

2 Carbon sequestration of plant and soil under the “Dual Carbon” strategy

Forest carbon sinks refer to the process by which forest vegetation absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere and immobilizes it within the vegetation or soil, thereby reducing the concentration of CO2 in the air. Notably, carbon stocks in forest vegetation and soil, which store at least three times as much carbon as the atmosphere, are crucial for maintaining soil fertility and regulating global climate change (Ren et al. 2024). Moreover, soil nitrogen stocks and phosphorus reserves play significant roles in driving carbon assimilation and plant growth in forest ecosystems (Luo et al. 2022; Taylor et al. 2024). Through photosynthesis, plants fix CO₂ and convert it into organic sugars, which are then used to construct their biomass. After a plant’s death, its tissues will decay and are absorbed into the soil (Bai et al. 2022). While CO₂ can be naturally released during the microbial decomposition of dead organic matter (Liang et al. 2017, 2019), some of the carbon produced by plants can be stored underground for decades, with the sequestered carbon far outweighing that produced by microbial respiration. Notably, the stability efficiency of root-derived carbon inputs into soil organic carbon (SOC) is, on average, five times that of aboveground carbon inputs (Jackson et al. 2017). Consequently, increasing plant abundance can effectively lower CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere (Prommer et al. 2019; Hisano et al. 2024). Research has demonstrated that tree evenness and functional diversity, such as mixed forests containing both broadleaf and coniferous species, can significantly enhance soil carbon and nitrogen accumulation in both organic and mineral layers (Chen et al. 2023).

3 Challenges for forestry development under the “Dual Carbon” strategy

3.1 Challenges in forest management

The primary approach to achieving the “Dual Carbon” goal lies in sustained efforts across multiple areas, including afforestation, mitigating forest degradation, utilizing bioenergy, reducing deforestation, and implementing sustainable forest management practices (Szajkó et al. 2024). These efforts aim to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sequestration. However, currently, China is facing various challenges and difficulties in implementing the carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategies, which demand substantial emission reductions and a formidable transformation effort. These challenges include the irrational exploitation of forest resources, low afforestation quality, incomplete forest resource protection mechanisms, and forest ecosystem degradation (Feng 2021). For example, afforestation efforts in the southern regions have primarily focused on fast-growing eucalyptus trees, leading to a rather monotonous tree species composition and rendering the ecological environment vulnerable. Moreover, the inadequacies in the mechanisms and systems for protecting forest resources have led to widespread and frequent incidents of forest resource destruction across various locations.

3.2 Challenges in the forestry industry

China is one of the world’s largest trader and consumer of woody forest products (Ke et al. 2023), yet the forest product industry remains relatively underdeveloped and is positioned at the mid-to-low end of the global industrial value chain. According to the 2021 softwood production statistics from GWMI, the top 15 timber companies were selected, featuring countries such as Canada, the United States, Finland, Austria and so on. Notably, no Chinese timber companies made it to this list. Despite its significance, the Chinese forestry industry remains stuck at the lower end of the global industry value chain, heavily reliant on the comparative advantage of abundant forest resources and low labor costs. This reliance has resulted in a limited number of branded products and low technological content. Furthermore, in the context of strict adherence to timber harvesting quotas, fluctuations in wood supply and demand directly impacted the wood processing industry (Ning et al. 2021). Additionally, the growing demand for low-carbon, zero-carbon, and negative-carbon technologies posed substantial challenges for upgrading the forestry industry and innovating forestry products effectively (Zeng et al. 2022).

3.3 Challenges in the demand for talent

Forests, as “green carbon reservoirs”, play a crucial role in achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality objectives (Yang et al. 2023). China’s forestry sector is transitioning toward ecological sustainability, demanding advanced and highly skilled personnel. At present, China is facing issues in the construction of its forestry talent pool, which includes a limited quantity, an imbalanced structure, low average quality, and severe talent outflows. Meanwhile, China's forestry production has long been plagued by harsh environmental conditions and relatively low comparative returns on investment, and has failed to attract top talent to the industry. As a result, there is a shortage of skilled forestry professionals, particularly in the area of carbon sequestration monitoring. It is imperative to strengthen efforts in talent development, scientific research investment, and basic data collection and application, as well as to increase funding for carbon sequestration monitoring and establish and improve relevant systems and mechanisms (Hou and Yin 2022). If left unaddressed, these issues could compromise the long-term sustainable development of the forestry sector.

4 Opportunities for forestry development under the “Dual Carbon” strategy

4.1 Policy support

In October 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the documents “Opinions on Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing Well in Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality”, and “Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030”, which explicitly stated that we should adopt a systemic approach to promote the integrated protection and enhance ecosystem carbon sink increments. The enactment of these policies not only facilitated systematic planning of carbon neutrality but also guided high-quality forestry development in China (Yan et al. 2021). In April 2023, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Forestry jointly issued the “Implementation Plan for Consolidating and Enhancing Ecosystem Carbon Sink Capacity”, marking the official commencement of actions related to ecosystem carbon sinks. Carbon sink transaction in forestry represents an effective market transformation, meanwhile, it emphasizes that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets.

4.2 Market transformation

Under the background of the “Dual Carbon” strategy, the value chain of new energy and low-carbon technologies will take center stage. China can leverage this opportunity to further promote green economic transformation. For example, forest resources are excellent sources of biomass energy, with biomass resources being transformed into clean energy products in gaseous, liquid, and solid forms through physical, chemical, and biological processes (Emmanuel et al. 2023). Consequently, we should utilize wood (bamboo, timber, and firewood materials) reasonably to develop industries like green materials, green furniture, green construction, and green energy, constructing a new industrial system characterized by low carbon, zero carbon, and negative carbon (Goldhahn et al. 2021). Moreover, forestry possesses the advantages of low carbon sequestration costs and ease of implementation. For instance, according to the Chinese Academy of Engineering’s journal, Engineering, forestry carbon sinks are the most economical negative emission technologies (NETs) compared to other approaches and biomass energy technologies. The cost of removing CO2 through the former was estimated to be approximately $10–50 per ton, while the latter was over $100/t. This relative cost advantage will establish a solid foundation for the long-term development of forestry carbon sink projects.

4.3 Resource reserves

The nation has included forestry indicators in the overall targets of “Dual Carbon”: by 2025 and 2030, China's forest coverage rates are expected to reach 24.1% and 25%, respectively, while the forest volumes are expected to reach 18 billion, and 19 billion cubic meters, respectively (Liu and Hu 2022). In recent years, regions across the country have coordinated the governance of mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes, and deserts, which has achieved significant results. Currently, China's forest area, with a 24.02% rate of forest coverage, has reached 232 million hectares (Liu et al. 2023). Such an abundant reserve of forest resources will lay a solid foundation for high-quality forestry development and the realization of the “Dual Carbon” goal.

5 Pathways for forestry development under the “Dual Carbon” strategy

5.1 Strengthen resource protection to stabilize forest stock

In the early days of the People’s Republic of China, the forest coverage rate was a mere 8.6%, encompassing just over 80 million hectares of forested area. Over the decades, China has committed to the path of sustainable development, implementing a series of significant projects and action plans, including voluntary tree planting, national land greening, returning farmland to forests, natural forest logging bans, and protection of public forests. These concerted efforts have led to continuous growth in China’s forest area and significant improvements in quality. Notably, the growth rate of forest volume in China far surpasses that of other countries worldwide (Wu et al. 2023), establishing China as the fastest-growing country in terms of global forest resources. These hard-earned achievements in ecological development must be diligently safeguarded. For instance, there is a need to cease logging in natural forests and ancient trees, and effectively preserve endangered wild plant resources.

5.2 Scientific afforestation to increase carbon storage capacity

With the continuous growth of forest resources, suitable spaces for afforestation with favorable natural conditions have become scarcer, making it increasingly challenging to significantly increase the forest resources on a large scale. Questions like “Where to plant,” “What to plant,” “How to plant,” and “How to manage” have become widely discussed concerns among various sectors of society (Liu and Hu 2022). To address these issues, it is necessary to adhere to the “Guidance on Scientific Afforestation” issued by the State Council's General Office, to allocate afforestation land reasonably, and to select tree and grass species scientifically. First, it is essential to focus on the overall layout of major projects for the protection and restoration of important ecological systems and make full use of sloping land, deforested land, abandoned mines, and other land spaces for afforestation. Second, methods such as replacing demolished constructions with green spaces and inserting greenery into gaps should be adopted to increase urban green areas. These approaches will ensure the sustainable development of forestry ecological resources without harming the ecosystem (Zhou 2023).

5.3 Strengthen talent support to ignite innovative forces

Compared to Western developed countries, China is facing tight timelines, large scale, numerous difficulties, and heavy tasks in achieving the “Dual Carbon” goal. To enhance scientific and technological innovation capabilities, it is necessary to cultivate talents specialized in forestry science and technology innovation. Meanwhile, a batch of original and leading achievements that support innovation needs to be produced. For example, methods such as improving welfare benefits and establishing innovative reward systems should be used in the scientific field to encourage more talents to engage in work related to sustainable forestry development. Furthermore, we should widely apply scientific and technological achievements to forestry production and ecological protection fields and promote the commercialization of scientific advances so that products or services with practical significance can be developed.

5.4 Improve carbon market to activate trading variables

China has significant advantages and potential in developing “forestry carbon sinks”, which holds practical significance in achieving the “Dual Carbon” goal. Therefore, a market-based forestry carbon sink management mechanism must be established as soon as possible. This mechanism should clearly define the responsibilities, obligations, and powers of the competent authorities for the forestry industry. It also should create a comprehensive system of standards for measurement, monitoring, verification, and supervision to guide carbon sink project registration, volume calculation, volume trading, and other aspects. Furthermore, increasing financial support and establishing forestry carbon sink demonstration sites are beneficial for exploring carbon futures trading.

6 Discussion and conclusion

6.1 The effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentration on plant and soil

A prevailing hypothesis suggests that elevated atmospheric CO2 levels will enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of both vegetation and soil. However, research has revealed that while plant biomass increases with rising CO2 concentration, soil carbon storage actually declines. This decline may be attributed to the way plants acquire nutrients: during the growth stage, roots absorb nutrient elements from the soil, potentially diminishing its carbon sequestration potential (Terrer et al. 2021). An increasing number of studies have provided evidence of the negative impacts of elevated CO2. For instance, as CO2 concentrations rise, vegetation continually expands, yet the vital nutrients of nitrogen and phosphorus decrease (Wang et al. 2021). Furthermore, an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations can significantly impact the phosphorus cycle in soil. If CO2 levels continue to escalate in the future, the areas of global rice yield at risk of reduction due to decreased available soil P will increase to 55% (Wang et al. 2023). Soil pH also plays a crucial role in carbon sequestration (Yu et al. 2006). Recent research has indicated that soil acidification in forests promotes mineral protection and the accumulation of plant-derived carbon (Yu et al. 2024).

6.2 The improvement of the ecological environment

High-quality development refers to a development that meets people’s ever-growing needs for a better life (Zhang et al. 2022). With the in-depth implementation of the “Dual Carbon” strategy, forest resources will be better protected (Jiang et al. 2023); the condition of natural ecosystems will be fundamentally improved, and the function of ecological services will be significantly enhanced. The natural ecosystem is being a virtuous cycle; in the future, environmental degradation will be fully reversed, and endangered living things will be protected (Haswell et al. 2023; Yan et al. 2024).

6.3 The industrial structure

Forestry represents a vast green economy, characterized by degradable and recyclable production, which holds immense potential and a broad market in the development of a low-carbon economy (Shamsuyeva and Endres 2021; Quan et al. 2024). Through the innovative application of bamboo and wood products, an increasing number of these sustainable alternatives are poised to replace plastic and steel products, finding widespread use in key industries such as accommodation and catering, life services, and cultural tourism (Zhang and Qiu 2023).

In addition, the forest is a green oil field for biomass energy production (França et al. 2023). Today, making full use of existing barren mountains, saline-alkali land, and mine reclamation land will be a new way for human beings to obtain energy (Li et al. 2023b). Replacing fossil energy will be a new approach for humans to obtain energy. Therefore, forest renewable energy, the development of biodiesel, non-food crop fuel ethanol, and biomass gas will be a new round of energy reform (Ramalingam et al. 2024).

6.4 The market function of forestry carbon sequestration

As an economical and effective method of carbon sequestration, forestry carbon sequestration is one of the important means to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. At the policy level, carbon-emitting enterprises, large-scale event organizers, and the public have been encouraged to fulfill their social responsibilities by purchasing forestry carbon sinks. In the future, the development of forestry carbon sinks and the ecological compensation system will be combined, and multiple means such as national certification of voluntary emission reduction and forestry carbon tickets will be used to expand the audience of forestry carbon sinks. This is done to improve the value of ecological products and truly realize the transformation from “green water and green mountains” to “gold mountain and silver mountain” (He and Ren 2023).

7 Conclusions

In summary, further research is needed to elucidate the complex interplay between trees, microorganisms, and the availability of soil nitrogen as well as phosphorus (Jiang et al. 2021; Li et al. 2023a), thereby deepening our understanding of the mechanisms underlying terrestrial ecosystem regulation of the global carbon cycle and balance. In addition, a key challenge lies in ensuring a sustainable supply of forest products, such as timber, while preventing resource depletion and promoting the sustainable utilization of forest resources. This requires enhancing resource utilization efficiency through technological innovation, adopting circular economy models, and fostering the development of alternative materials and renewable energy sources. Furthermore, balancing economic growth and environmental considerations poses another significant challenge. The development of the forest industry is often accompanied by a tension between economic gain and environmental protection. Achieving a delicate balance between fostering economic growth, creating employment opportunities, and minimizing adverse environmental impacts is crucial for harmonious development across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. This balance must be struck in the restructuring of the industrial structure. By actively and intelligently managing our forest ecosystems, leveraging the best available knowledge and foresight capacity, we can capitalize the opportunities presented by the “Dual Carbon” strategy.