1 Introduction

Strategy, originally meant as “astuteness and resourcefulness of wars”, is the planning and guidance of the overall situation of military struggles. In all kinds of spatial planning, the strategic planning of space, with its flexibility and predictability, plays an important leading role in development by cooperating with statutory planning. Introducing strategy into spatial planning refers to planning and guiding a certain spatio-temporal dynamic system, which contains three meanings:

  1. I

    Gain insight into the development trend;

  2. II

    Formulate development strategies;

  3. III

    Construct a development pattern.

2 Literature Review

Since the 1990s, the planning system of western countries has gradually transformed from land control to strategic guidance, and strategic planning of space has gradually become an important part of the planning system of various countries, which is used to guide the forward-looking research of urban development and serve as an important means of urban governance of modernization (Friedmann, 2004). Germany, as the first country in the world to establish a spatial planning system, emphasizes strategic planning in the process of formulating spatial planning at federal, state and regional levels, and integrates strategic planning into the statutory planning system as a guide for implementation planning (Albrechts et al., 2003; Healey, 2006; Wu et al., 2003). The British spatial planning system is divided into two levels: regional strategic planning and local development planning. The regional strategic planning level focuses on strategy and guidance, reaching a development consensus, but its binding force is relatively weak. The local development planning level focuses on control, implementation and local autonomy (Booth et al., 2007; Vigar, 2009). In the French spatial planning system, the special legal status of strategic planning and its formulation requirements are stipulated by the code, which is mandatory in land use and directly guides the planning at provincial and municipal levels (Le Schémadirecteur de la régionl le-de-France, SDRIF). The American spatial planning system is divided into four levels: state planning, regional planning, local planning and community planning, and the contents related to development strategy are organically integrated into each level. In state planning, they mainly put forward guiding overall development strategies, and further put forward corresponding strategies for the development of different fields in regional planning, which finally guides the formulation of local planning and community planning (Bryson, 2010). Generally speaking, the strategic planning of space in western countries aims to study and construct the basic framework of future spatial development to cope with various challenges in the future, which is forward-looking, strategic and leading (Chen et al., 2013; Du & Tian, 2016; Deng et al., 2020; see also Berlin Strategie 3.0; “The London Plan: Spatial development strategy for Greater London”; “Le Schémadirecteur de la régionl le-de-France 2030”; “OneNYC 2050”).

In 2019, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued “Several Opinions on Establishing and Supervising the Implementation of the Territorial Spatial Planning System”, which defined the territorial spatial planning system as the integration of various existing spatial planning, and the significance and requirements of its construction, and especially put forward the formulation requirements for the strategic status of territorial spatial planning, demanding that the national decisions and deployment be implemented to improve the quality and efficiency of space development and protection (State Council, 2019). In 2020, the General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the Guide to the Formulation of Provincial Territorial Spatial Planning (for Trial Implementation), which further emphasized the combination of the current situation and the national strategy, and proposed to formulate the planning indicators system according to goals and strategies (Ministry of Natural Resources, 2020). With its flexibility and comprehensive features, strategic planning of space plays an important role in the spatial planning system, and with the promotion of planning levels, its strategic status will be further highlighted (Du & Lian, 2019). Strategic planning of space has become an important guide for Chinese cities to grasp their development direction under the background of marketization, and it also plays a better role in planning on the basis of a more procedural legal planning system (Zhang, 2002). With the emergence of technological evolution, economic development and globalization, strategic planning of space has gradually changed from promoting urban development and extensive expansion to sustainable development (Zhang, B. 2019: Zheng et al. 2014). In recent years, in the development strategy of global big cities, the concept of sustainable development and the application of new technologies have become key issues (Wang, 2013).

Under the background of the new era, the ecological rational planning paradigm of strategic planning of space will be incorporated into the Chinese rational thought, which is a revision and improvement of the traditional ideal-oriented and problem-oriented planning: taking the construction of ecological civilization as the goal and orientation, taking the new development concept led by innovation as the basic driving force, taking the “chain of big data, intelligence, mobile internet and cloud computing” led by artificial intelligence as the technical support, respecting the basic laws of urban development and urbanization (Wu, 2018), and under the prospect of limited growth and optimized development, emphasizing the long-term value of space quality through the fine scientific prediction of the future development trend.

3 Background of territorial spatial planning of Hainan Province (2020–2035)

In an important speech delivered at the 30th anniversary of Hainan’s establishment of a provincial special economic zone, General Secretary Xi Jinping mentioned: “Hainan should persist in the priority of opening up, implement a more proactive opening strategy, speed up the establishment of a new open economic system, and promote the formation of a new pattern of comprehensive opening up. Support Hainan to gradually explore and steadily promote the construction of a free trade port with Chinese characteristics, and establish free trade port policies and institutional systems step by step”. The guiding opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on supporting Hainan’s comprehensive deepening of reform and opening up have also defined the strategic positioning of the “three zones and one centre”, namely, Hainan’s comprehensive deepening of reform and opening-up pilot zone, national ecological civilization pilot zone, international tourism consumption centre and national major strategic service guarantee zone. With the publication of the “Overall Plan for the Construction of Hainan Free Trade Port” and “Hainan Free Trade Port Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft)”, Hainan is welcoming unprecedented development opportunities and will lead the development of open economy at a higher level.

3.1 Basic overview and regional pattern of Hainan Province

Hainan Province is the southernmost provincial administrative region in China, with the best ecological environment, the widest ocean and the richest tropical resources in China. It is the largest special economic zone and the only provincial international tourist island in China, with special advantages in resources and environment, geographical location and national strategic support, and has been given the great mission of building a free trade port with Chinese characteristics in the new era. Hainan Island, with a land area of 34,400 square kilometres, is the second largest island in China, the “gateway” of China’s important opening up to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and the “ballast stone” for the stable and sustainable development of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean regions. Taking the construction of a free trade port as an opportunity and leading in the opening of the RCEP region and even the whole world, Hainan Province will become an important hub for smooth domestic circulation and domestic and international double circulation, and play an important role in promoting cooperation and development between China and countries and regions along the “the belt and road”.

According to the law of urbanization in the world, when the urbanization rate of a country or region reaches 65%, it will face the differentiation between intellectual urbanization and physical urbanization and reach a stable state of the two when the urbanization rate reaches about 75% (Wu, 2015). At present, the urbanization level in Hainan is close to 60%. If the urbanization rate increases by one percentage point every year, Hainan will face the division of urbanization types in five years and reach a stable state of urbanization types in 15 years (Fig. 1). If Hainan can’t greatly improve its labour productivity during the five-year preparation period and the 15-year window period, and can’t complete the scientific and technological innovation that adapts to the modern production and life of cities and towns, Hainan will move towards physical urbanization and consume the historic resources of urbanization once and for all. With this development, when the urbanization rate in Hainan reaches more than 80%, a large number of urban population loads will be formed, and the social conflicts, rational intelligence level and social intelligence innovation contribution of the city will not make Hainan move towards an urban society with high labour productivity (WU, 2020).

Fig. 1
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"5 + 15" urbanization transition. Source: Author

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3.2 Formulation process of Hainan Province's territorial spatial planning

Hainan is one of the earliest provinces in China to carry out planning reform. In June 2015, the 13th meeting of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reform agreed that Hainan Province should carry out the provincial “multi-regulation integration” reform pilot. In January 2017, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued the Pilot Program of Provincial Spatial Planning, with Hainan Province as one of the pilots (Hu & Yin, 2016). After formulating the Master Plan of Hainan Province (Spatial Type 2015–2030), the General Office of the State Council replied to “agree on the organization of the implementation by Hainan Province”. In recent years, Hainan Province has continuously promoted the “multi-regulation integration” reform. In March 2019, under the leadership of the Hainan Provincial Party Committee and Government, the Hainan Provincial Department of Natural Resources and Planning began to organize the formulation of Territorial Spatial Planning of Hainan Province (2020–2035) (hereinafter referred to as the “Planning”), and the author’s team led the contacting. Since April, relevant experts and leaders from Tongji University and Shanghai Tongji Urban Planning and Design Institute Co., Ltd. have successively gone to Hainan to carry out research and prepare for the establishment of their Hainan branches. In conjunction with Nanjing University, Hainan Guoyuan Land and Mineral Survey and Planning and Design Institute, Hainan Academy of Ocean and Fishery Sciences, etc., they have gathered in Haikou since May 20, and officially started their on-site work. Then, after comprehensive and centralized research, base map and base number review, special research and other basic work, in 2019, the preliminary plan and optimization plan, the framework, the first draft and the results of the outline were completed one after another; From February to July 2020, the draft of the planning was formulated and the multi-level, multi-round and multi-form demonstration work was widely carried out. After August, it entered the stage of adjustment and improvement. In October 2020, Shen Xiaoming, Governor of Hainan Province, presided over a special meeting of the provincial government. He highly affirmed the formulation of the “Planning” and pointed out that the formulation of the “Planning” has a leading role in the special plans of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. The strategic positioning of “three zones and one centre” should be implemented well, and scientific formulation of the “Planning” will provide guidance and guarantee for high-quality construction of a free trade port. The formulation of the “Planning” is expected to be completed in the first half of 2021.

Based on the requirements of “Several Opinions on Establishing and Supervising the Implementation of Territorial Spatial Planning System” issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, the formulation of “Planning” will clarify the new tasks under the new situation and grasp the new opportunities under the new requirements. Hainan is undergoing great changes that have not been seen in a hundred years. Under the initiative of “the belt and road”, the Asia–Pacific region is gradually becoming the central region of world economic activities. In the future, with the overall goal of serving the construction of the “community of common destiny”, “South China Sea Rim” will become an important node for stabilizing the world pattern and the Asia–Pacific pattern, while Hainan is the central stage of the “South China Sea Rim” pattern. How to gain insight into the general trend of world development, how to formulate Hainan’s development strategy, and how to construct Hainan’s development pattern are major issues in the formulation of the “Planning”. The setting of the “Special Research in the Strategic Leadership of Territorial Spatial Planning in Hainan Province” (hereinafter referred to as the “Strategy”) runs through the whole process of planning formulation, closely follows each link, and plays a significant strategic leading role in the overall situation.

4 Spatial strategy leading innovation of territorial spatial planning

4.1 Strategic objectives guideline for realizing policy priority

General Secretary Xi Jinping personally planned, deployed and promoted Hainan Island to become a free trade port with Chinese characteristics. According to the “Hainan Free Trade Port Construction Overall Plan”, by 2025, Hainan will initially establish a free trade port policy system focusing on trade and investment freedom and convenience; By 2035, the free trade port system and operation mode will be more mature, and the trade and investment rules characterized by freedom, fairness, rule of law and high-level process supervision will be constructed; By the middle of this century, a high-level free trade port with strong international influence will be built in an all-round way.

By analyzing the concept of a Free Trade Zone (FTZ, Table 1) and its evolution process, the next generation of FTZ should present the highest level of openness, realize the multi-dimensional international resource allocation of “shipping + trade + science and technology innovation”, and realize high spatial integration through the three types of spatial linkage of "port + zone + city".

Table 1 Evolution of terms related to free trade zone
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Hainan should quickly transform its free trade privilege into a local spatial advantage, prepare a negative-aspect list and corresponding thinking mode, and realize free and convenient trade, investment, cross-border capital flow, entry and exit of population and transportation, and safe and orderly flow of data, and allocate global resources.

4.2 Strategic platforms for stimulating urban development

In urban development, strategic space is the “acupoint” guiding a whole area, the “lifeblood” of economic prosperity and decline and the “key” to opening a new situation. It is also the structure and creation of some situations with global inducement and traction effect serving strategic objectives. The “Strategy” supports the great rejuvenation with six platforms, some of which have a basic prerequisite, some are late-comers, some have comprehensive, extensive and high-end influence, and some have special influence. The order from basic to high-end, from overall situation to special situation is as follows: (Fig. 2).

  1. 1.

    International passenger and freight platform. To support Hainan to build a free trade port with the highest open level, it is necessary to equip it with international passenger and freight hub airports and freight hub seaports with the highest service capacity. Among them, the passenger transport hub should be based on Meilan Airport to improve quality and efficiency, the freight airport should be an international hub airport supported by professional cargo planes, and the seaport should be an international hub port facing the international main channel.

  2. 2.

    International communication platform. It is a comprehensive functional platform with international government affairs, international high-end business and international high-quality cultural exchanges as the leading functions, on which related facilities and service institutions and related industries gather and develop. This platform is the central institution to promote the evolution of multi-level international patterns.

  3. 3.

    International education platform. To train international political, business, tourism, cultural exchanges, scientific research and various engineering and technical talents, and serve the peaceful development of the South China Sea and the construction of the belt and road.

  4. 4.

    Aerospace industry platform. Low latitude is one of the immovable natural endowments in Hainan. Relying on the Wenchang Space Launch Site and Wenchang International Space City, it will develop spacecraft assembly, parts manufacturing, R&D, data application and other industries, and further prepare for deep space development, develop relevant R&D and manufacturing capabilities, and build a national aerospace industry platform.

  5. 5.

    Deep sea industry platform. One of the immovable natural endowments of deep-sea Hainan is to focus on the marine science and technology industry and gather deep-sea science and technology and marine industry. In deep-sea science and technology, it mainly develops deep-sea equipment, deep-sea materials and deep-sea communications; In the marine industry, it mainly develops marine vessels, marine equipment and marine public services.

  6. 6.

    Germplasm resource platform. The tropical climate is one of the immovable natural endowments in Hainan. With Nanfan Science and Technology City as the core, it will develop the functions of animal and plant breeding science and technology, international seed trade, ecological soil fertilizer, intellectual property trade of seed industry, tropical agriculture and so on.

Fig. 2
figure 2

Major strategic platforms in Hainan. Source: Author

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4.3 Premise of ecological conservation anchoring ecological security

Hainan should firmly establish and fully practice the concept that green mountains and clear water are equal to mountains of gold and silver, implement the strictest ecological environment protection system, establish a system of nature reserves, anchor the ecological security pattern of “1 + 1 + 3 + N” (Fig. 3), and build an ecological island with forest-city integration, forest-water dependency, vertical and horizontal forest and fields and mountain-sea connection.

Fig. 3
figure 3

"1 + 1 + 3 + N" ecological security pattern in Hainan. Source: Author

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1, that is, “one heart”: the ecological green heart with tropical rainforest national park as the main body;

1, that is, “one ring”: the ecological blue ring with the ecological shore and sea area around the island as the main body;

3, that is, “three rivers”: the ecological water sources of the Nandu River, Wanquan River and Changhua River;

N, that is, “multiple corridors”: multiple ecological corridors connecting mountains and seas.

At the same time, through the provision of rainforest products, the promotion of eco-tourism, the combination of medical and health care, and the cultivation of genetic diversity, we will build Nangaoling Forest Habitat Exhibition Area, Ying Ge Ridge Wisdom Science Education Area, Limushan Li Nationality Cultural Experience Area, Wuzhishan Tropical Rainforest Exploration Area, Diaoluoshan Tropical Rainforest Leisure Area, Bawangling Rainforest Cultural Experience Area, Daguangba Ecological Water Area, Jianfengling Native Scenic Area, Kafaling Ecological Restoration Exhibition Area, and in a certain range outside the national parks, relying on characteristic resources, plan and guide the construction of corresponding supporting plates, strengthen the depth of ecological value transformation, and build the brand of Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park.

4.4 Efficiency oriented land supply

Free trade port is a play, and territorial space is the stage. The whole stage should provide the best space guarantee for the unfolding of scenes in the whole play. Based on the superposition analysis of ecological benefits, economic benefits and social benefits, the “Strategy” makes an intelligent diagnosis of Hainan’s spatial benefits and finds that the most fatal problem is that many stages are running inefficiently, and stage supply is not benefit-oriented. The only way out is to establish a dynamic evaluation of efficiency per unit space, eliminate inefficient land-consuming units and improve land-use efficiency.

Measure 1: external guidance, the transformation of inefficient land. Introduce high-efficiency industries and enterprises by external guidance to promote the transformation of inefficient land in coastal areas of Dongfang City, Qionghai City, Wanning City, Danzhou City, Changjiang Li Autonomous County and other cities and counties (Fig. 4-a).

Fig. 4
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Strategies for promoting efficiency territorial space (a: external guidance; B: internal concentration; C: international standard). Source: Author

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Measure 2: Internal concentration, concentration small scattered land. In the future, we should actively guide rural concentrated residences, optimize rural spatial patterns, and realize the transfer and concentrated development of small scattered land in Wenchang and Qionghai (Fig. 4-b)).

Measure 3: Hold high, the blank for major strategies. To ensure the implementation of uncertain national major projects, the high-quality development of Hainan Island in the future must strengthen the blank space of Wenchang Mulan Bay, Danzhou Xinying Bay, Ledong Yinggehai, G98 Sanya expansion project, Jiangdong New District, Yazhou Bay, Haitang Bay and Boao Lecheng, etc., and purchase special appropriation land with national strategic positioning (Fig. 4-c).

Long-term radical measures: to build a real-time dynamic monitoring system for unit space efficiency, and to provide space with efficiency orientation, that is, space supply inclines to areas with high space efficiency. At the same time, monitor the space efficiency of each enterprise in a real-time manner, warn or fine enterprises with income below the threshold, rectify or retreat enterprises with income below the threshold long-termly, and innovate space supply incentive mechanisms.

4.5 Focus on attracting talents and provide continuous endogenous power

Sustainable development can only be brought by sustained talents, vigorous vitality can only be brought by young people, the vigor of knowledge can only be brought by young people with higher education, diversified miracles can only be created from scratch by creative young people, and capital and jobs can only be brought by entrepreneurs. Talent is the sustainable endogenous power of Hainan's future development.

Create a tax depression, and attract talents with policies. Give full play to the unique advantages of the free trade port, and promote the implementation of the most attractive special preferential policies for low taxes (Table 2) and all-around talent service guarantee.

Table 2 Comparison of tax policies between Hainan and world-class free trade ports
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Foster giant enterprises, and retain talents in the industry. Preemptively attract intelligence-intensive giant enterprises related to aerospace, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, deep-sea technology, Nanfan technology, clean energy and other industries at home and abroad to move to Hainan or set up regional headquarters, and get giant enterprises to attract talents externally; Select the best to promote, accelerate the cultivation of local quasi-gazelle and quasi-unicorn enterprises to grow into giant enterprises, and foster the giants to attract talents internally.

Run first-class universities and cultivate talents through science and education. Relying on Hainan Lingshui Li’an International Education Innovation Experimental Zone, Haikou Jiangdong Cooperative Education Park, Yazhou Bay University Town and other education gathering areas, we will build a national education innovation development demonstration zone, establish a high-level international university training base for high-quality, international and innovative talents of science, engineering, agriculture and medicine, form an international education research and training centre, and build a brand of “studying in Hainan” (Fig. 5).

Fig. 5
figure 5

Forecasted distribution of international education innovation and development community in Hainan. Source: Author

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Hold international summits to gather wisdom and talents. Relying on Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) and Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), we will create a platform for cooperation and exchange among Asia–Pacific countries, promote and deepen economic exchanges, coordination and cooperation within this region and between this region and other parts of the world, and provide a high-level dialogue platform for governments, enterprises, experts and scholars to discuss economic, social, environmental and other related issues.

4.6 Predicting future scenarios with intelligent planning tools 

Regularly transfer machine learning to predict future population growth. The “Strategy” relies on the historical population data of Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and other world-class free trade areas, monitors the population historical development data within 15 years after the promulgation of the free trade policy, simulates the population development under the government’s open free trade policy through regular migration of machine learning, and predicts that the resident population of Hainan will increase to about 16.64 million in 2035 (Fig. 6).

Fig. 6
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Population forecasting in Hainan (2035) compared with other notable free trade cities. Source: Author

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Intelligent game of four elements and ten parties, deduce the territorial spatial layout. The functional layout deduction of Hainan Island’s territorial spatial land will adopt CityGo's four-party ten-element artificial intelligent game model, based on four different scenarios: first, the development model of market rules; Second, the development model of strictly controlling scale; Third, the development model guided by strategy; Fourth, the development mode of free trade (Fig. 7), and we have completed the research and judgment on the future development direction, land use scale, functional layout and spatial structure of the whole island and five areas of Hainan Province. To scientifically predict and accurately answer the problems that Hainan Province may encounter in the future, to provide a new model of “man–machine sharing wisdom” for government decision-making. Under the development model of free trade, the proportion of commerce and industry in the land layout of the whole island has increased from 25.2% to 33.8%; Among them, Wenchang (+ 15%), Wanning (+ 12.1%), Qionghai (+ 12%), Dongfang (+ 10.8%), Ding’an (+ 10.6%) and Lingshui (+ 10.2%) have the most obvious increase in the proportion of commerce and industry.

Fig. 7
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Landuse forecasting in Hainan (2035). Source: Author

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Excavate the four elements of science and technology innovation and deduce the potential space of science and technology innovation. Science and technology ability and innovation level are the keys to evaluating the potential of urban science and technology innovation. Under the influence of many factors, the four basic elements of innovated policy source, innovated application, innovated industry and innovated talents can best reflect the level of urban science and technology innovation. Based on the four elements of science and technology innovation, combined with the statistical data of urban innovative invention patents, the distribution and agglomeration data of young and middle-aged people who promote the development of innovation potential, and the distribution data of high-end education and scientific research infrastructure produced by cultivating innovative patents, the potential space of urban science and technology innovation is predicted (Fig. 8), providing decision support for the future industrial layout of the government.

Fig. 8
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Major industrial clusters in Hainan. Source: Author

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5 Conclusion

The “Strategy” runs through the whole formulation process of the planning, closely follows all aspects of work, and plays an important strategic leading role in the overall situation. The “Strategy” is based on six dimensions: setting goals, improving quality, keeping the bottom line, seeking motive powers, configuring systems and creating new points. It has a forward-looking insight into Hainan’s development trend, accurately formulates Hainan’s development strategy and scientifically constructs Hainan’s development pattern, and constantly promotes the closed loop of the planning subject of “Goal and Vision—Path Selection—Development Motivation—Communication and Decision—Evaluation and Optimization” in practice (Wu, 2020).

First, set goals: with the strategic goal of building a free trade port with Chinese characteristics, realize the local transformation of six privileges: free and convenient trade, free and convenient investment, free and convenient cross-border capital flow, free and convenient entry and exit of population, free and convenient transportation and safe and orderly flow of data;

Second, improve quality: take the international passenger and freight platform, international exchange platform, international education platform, aerospace industry platform, deep sea industry platform and germplasm resources platform as six strategic spaces, and grasp Hainan Island’s “acupoint” guiding a whole area, the “lifeblood” of economic prosperity and decline and the “key” to open a new situation;

Third, keep the bottom line: firmly establish and fully practice the concept that green mountains and clear water are equal to mountains of gold and silver, implement the strictest ecological environment protection system, establish a system of nature reserves with national parks, nature reserves and natural parks as the core, anchor the ecological security pattern of “1 + 1 + 3 + N”;

Fourth, seek motive powers: take young talents with innovative, creative and entrepreneurial abilities as the sustainable endogenous driving force for Hainan’s future development, and cultivate the driving force for Hainan’s development by creating tax depression, fostering giant enterprises, running first-class universities and holding international summits, as well as with the external attraction of talents and internal cultivation;

Fifthly, configure mechanism: take the dynamic efficiency of unit territorial space as the evaluation standard, eliminate inefficient land-consuming units and improve land-use efficiency through external guidance, internal concentration, holding high and long-term radical measures. Innovate the incentive mechanism of space supply, and the space supply is inclined to the area with high space efficiency with benefit orientation;

Sixth, create new points: respect the law of urban development, and based on the technology of the “chain of big data, intelligence, mobile internet and cloud computing” led by artificial intelligence, carry out intelligent deduction of spatial function layout of Hainan Island. Construct a four-level “intelligent island hub” system: strategic decision-making system, urban intelligent system, nervous system and vagus system, and lay out a new infrastructure support system of points, networks and flows to realize scientific, precise and intelligent governance.